NFL...+4 -107 & -3 -125 worth a shot?

X-Files · Jul 3, 2006

Is this a worthwhile middle opportunity?

Seattle Seahawks -3 -125

at

DETROIT LIONS +4 -107

Fishhead · Jul 3, 2006

It is basically pretty a much BREAKEVEN proposition longterm(give or take a few cents either way) and really not worth the trouble.

The ONLY time I would consider this is when attempting to complete a rollover at a specific place and/or the total on the game was UNDER 35 points.

Bluemyboy · Jul 3, 2006

so basically you are asking youself if this game will end on seahawks win of 4 or 3. Usually you would be getting greater then 10-1 (just a guess). so this is definately not worth it.

You can probably find this very routinely throughout the NFL season, however I think playing it will cause you to go broke fast.

Bluemyboy · Jul 3, 2006

little risk I guess but the juice will kill you. never mind my first post, It is still early so I thought you needed the 4 or 3.

Bluemyboy · Jul 3, 2006

Fishhead said:
It is basically pretty a much BREAKEVEN proposition longterm(give or take a few cents either way) and really not worth the trouble.

The ONLY time I would consider this is when attempting to complete a rollover at a specific place and/or the total on the game was UNDER 35 points.

really, breakeven? I guess just ask Fish. shows how much I know.

Fishhead · Jul 3, 2006

Fishhead said:
It is basically pretty a much BREAKEVEN proposition longterm(give or take a few cents either way) and really not worth the trouble.

The ONLY time I would consider this is when attempting to complete a rollover at a specific place and/or the total on the game was UNDER 35 points.

Here is the math on this with the following figures......

A 3 pt favorite in the NFL falls on the number roughly 10% of the time(up or down from this figure fractionally).

A 4pt favorite in the NFL falls on the number roughly 5% of the time(up or down fractionally).

Therefore you BASICALLY have a 15% chance of hitting this side/middle or
roughly 6.67% of the time.

For every $100 you are attempting to win, you are risking losing either $25 or $7........with $7 occurring about twice as much becasue the number -3 will land about TWICE as much as the number -4.

So 25 + 7 + 7 =39 divided by 3 equals 13 cents you will be risking to win $100.

Do the math on this and you will see it is basically breakeven or actually a very small win...........and slightly more of a win as the total on the game gets lower.

Again, great for a rollover and/or when the total is less than 35 or 37.

If my math on this is wrong, my apologies as I am doing this very quickly and early in the morning.

-FH-

Bluemyboy · Jul 3, 2006

appreciate the breakdown Fish.

Fishhead · Jul 3, 2006

Another factor is when you got both numbers.

If one got the +4 say on the SUNDAY overnights and now you are laying the -3 -125 on gameday.............you probably should allow yourself to have a tad more on the +4 -107 side as you defenitely got a very good number and the number has come down probably due to injuries/weather/or simply a bad opening number.