Question....Poker King Jim

GeneralZ · Jul 3, 2006

Poker King Jim 162-192 +$8162 +81.62 YTD

I didn't want to HiJack your thread but found this amazing..I am new to sports betting but know enough to be dangerous :icon_conf

.. I tailed you last night on the Houston game -1.5 +245, thanks..

You seem to be one of the few that bet the DOGS! I have read that betting against the public is the way to win but no ones does it with any regularity but you. It's a winner no doubt....Can you give me some insight as to what you look for and stay away from in deciding on games. Do you have any general rules in playing Dogs???? Any advice would be appreciated!!

thanks

GeneralZ

GeneralZ · Jul 3, 2006

Tulsa · Jul 3, 2006

Tulsa · Jul 3, 2006

bump...poker king...just say 'no thanks' if that is what you are thinking...

gold64 · Jul 3, 2006

Taking a Favorite, at that Minus One & a Half Runs, is a different style than grabbing Dogs that are winning outright.

True, both are Underdogs... but obviously this method is with the larger Favorite....

LEYKIS101 · Jul 3, 2006

gold64 said:
Taking a Favorite, at that Minus One & a Half Runs, is a different style than grabbing Dogs that are winning outright.

True, both are Underdogs... but obviously this method is with the larger Favorite....

I believe Jim takes underdogs and plays them on the alternate runline for the most part, all of today's runlines were dogs to begin with. He usually mixes in a light favorite or underdog as well.

I'd like to hear how Jim comes up with his plays as well.

PokerKingJim · Jul 4, 2006

Hey sorry guys - I didn't even notice this thread.

Leykis is right, most of my bets are laying 1.5 runs with the dog. Here is a post I made in another thread about favorites/dogs that will give you a little insight. Keep in mind that I do play favorites quite often, but feel the dog runlines are the bread and butter. Most importantly I am looking for value - when in my estimation the probabilities of a team winning exceed the odds that are being offered on that team.

The problem with playing big favorite is that Vegas knows you all want to play big favorites. The odds they offer are not the true odds on who will win the game. Yea you can definitely win by playing this way by picking your spots, but you are at a disadvantage to the big dog player in baseball IMO. Winning at this game and at all gambling is the process of accurately comparing odds offered with PROBABILITIES. Get your money in when you have the best of it, get it out when you don't. And when you look at a game and see the Mets and Pedro playing the Rockies and Josh Fogg, where do you think all of the money is going to be? The odds are in favor of the people playing the Rockies, even if they don't win on that specific day. Mets backers are going to be paying an inflated price that is a long term -EV more often than not.

The beauty of the dog runline is that most of the time, the dog is going to lose the game anyways. I feel that the difference between the ML price and RL price can be way overdone. I am sure the books have done the math on it, so just like any other method you have to pick your spots.

GeneralZ · Jul 4, 2006

Thanks Jim for your thoughts. Hope you don't mind me picking your brain. Can't believe that i read that you should pick against the public and you are the only one who does this consistantly!!! When picking games, do you have a system of are you more of a feel (common sense) player if the EV is there.. Also have you been betting Dogs in past years with similar results ..

By the way, tailed you again last night in the Oakland game. Thanks!!! Looked like you had a real good night :103631605

.

Best of luck

GeneralZ

Tulsa · Jul 4, 2006

PK Jim, thanks for giving us some good advice! I really need to learn how to cap like you do. Also, thanks for sharing your plays with us. You are much appreciated.

Good luck and thanks again. tulsa

GeneralZ · Jul 4, 2006

GeneralZ said:
Thanks Jim for your thoughts. Hope you don't mind me picking your brain. Can't believe that i read that you should pick against the public and you are the only one who does this consistantly!!! When picking games, do you have a system of are you more of a feel (common sense) player if the EV is there.. Also have you been betting Dogs in past years with similar results ..

By the way, tailed you again last night in the Oakland game. Thanks!!! Looked like you had a real good night .

Best of luck

GeneralZ

nbm

Bump

PokerKingJim · Jul 4, 2006

Basically I go down the list of games and look at the prices. if I see a price that I feel is off (usually a dog), I play it. If I look at a matchup and like a team, I will only play that game if the price is right. I do not factor stats into my capping much at all. I know the stats, but they are rarely a factor. Vegas has already figured all of those stats into the line. I look at
1) the line
2) gut feel on who will win that day
3) overall quality of the lineup, bullpen
4) how the team has been playing, situational spots like the Mets coming off the Yankees series and then playing the pirates = major letdown
5) starting pitcher

Most of my picks come from seeing the game, seeing the line, having the "feel" that that team will win today. I don't spend hours capping games.

My fundamental theorem of gambling is simple: I am looking for value - when in my estimation the probabilities of a team winning exceed the odds that are being offered on that team.

Today with the D-Rays. The alt runline is +329. So according to Vegas/the betting public, the Rays will win by more than 1 run once out of every 3.29 times. These are the odds. Will they most likely lose tonight? Of course. But IMO they will win more often than once every 3.29 games so longterm the Rays are the winning play. Sports betting is a marathon and as with all gambling, probabilities and odds rule the roost

Just a little over a week ago I played against the Pirates with the Dodgers as a game of the year type play saying the Pirates had very little chance. Now I have played on the Pirates alt runline 4 days in a row against 2 of the best teams in baseball - and they have cashed twice so far.

GeneralZ · Jul 4, 2006

Poker King Jim said:
Basically I go down the list of games and look at the prices. if I see a price that I feel is off (usually a dog), I play it. If I look at a matchup and like a team, I will only play that game if the price is right. I do not factor stats into my capping much at all. I know the stats, but they are rarely a factor. Vegas has already figured all of those stats into the line. I look at
1) the line
2) gut feel on who will win that day
3) overall quality of the lineup, bullpen
4) how the team has been playing, situational spots like the Mets coming off the Yankees series and then playing the pirates = major letdown
5) starting pitcher

Most of my picks come from seeing the game, seeing the line, having the "feel" that that team will win today. I don't spend hours capping games.

My fundamental theorem of gambling is simple: I am looking for value - when in my estimation the probabilities of a team winning exceed the odds that are being offered on that team.

Today with the D-Rays. The alt runline is +329. So according to Vegas/the betting public, the Rays will win by more than 1 run once out of every 3.29 times. These are the odds. Will they most likely lose tonight? Of course. But IMO they will win more often than once every 3.29 games so longterm the Rays are the winning play. Sports betting is a marathon and as with all gambling, probabilities and odds rule the roost

Just a little over a week ago I played against the Pirates with the Dodgers as a game of the year type play saying the Pirates had very little chance. Now I have played on the Pirates alt runline 4 days in a row against 2 of the best teams in baseball - and they have cashed twice so far.

Jim...
thank you, thank you, thank you....being new to Sports Betting there is nothing like getting some winning insight that we all can draw from. It is kind of you to share....Good luck and I am sure that I will be asking more questions in the future.....:toast:

thanks again

GeneralZ

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