thanks
for the early post PKJ. I was just trying to decode wtf you are seeing in these games. If you care to share I would be grateful, but in any event you are
:smoker2:
in case you feel benevolent...
catmantx@models.com
you know, the old "teach a man to fish" addage.
Thanks Again and GLTUs
for the early post PKJ. I was just trying to decode wtf you are seeing in these games. If you care to share I would be grateful, but in any event you are
:smoker2:
in case you feel benevolent...
catmantx@models.com
you know, the old "teach a man to fish" addage.
Thanks Again and GLTUs
old_school23 said:
he plays Dogs..look at his W/L record and his units up..
..when one of these hits he wins big...if you bet fav you need 60% or so win rate to make a good profit..when you play dogs maybe a 40% winrate gets you profit..It is betting against the public concept...Jim is one of the few that does this..GeneralZ
Z
Thanks for responding. I understand now that you've explained it the concept. But I still wonder what he sees in the game. There are plenty of dogs, he's nailing the dog on the ARL no less.
This is my first year capping bases. The things I look for: A pitchers recent form, his past performance vs. the opp. Hom/Away Splits, the offensive output vs. R/L etc. All of these are not what he is seeing. So far my best guess is he is labeling a team as left or right handed dominant, and then he (PKJ) looks at the pitchers splits vs. that hand...if that made sense. And I'm sure like most good cappers it's not just one thing. But I can't find 1 thing for certain that he is picking up on. I'm just very curious. I really like his style too lol!! Who wouldn't want to risk 100 to get back 275.. and then lately he's going 3 of 4 etc. just amazing. Whatever you do Jim keep it up and like I said if you care to give me a tip I would be grateful.
GLTA
OS:money8:
Thanks for responding. I understand now that you've explained it the concept. But I still wonder what he sees in the game. There are plenty of dogs, he's nailing the dog on the ARL no less.
This is my first year capping bases. The things I look for: A pitchers recent form, his past performance vs. the opp. Hom/Away Splits, the offensive output vs. R/L etc. All of these are not what he is seeing. So far my best guess is he is labeling a team as left or right handed dominant, and then he (PKJ) looks at the pitchers splits vs. that hand...if that made sense. And I'm sure like most good cappers it's not just one thing. But I can't find 1 thing for certain that he is picking up on. I'm just very curious. I really like his style too lol!! Who wouldn't want to risk 100 to get back 275.. and then lately he's going 3 of 4 etc. just amazing. Whatever you do Jim keep it up and like I said if you care to give me a tip I would be grateful.
GLTA
OS:money8:
I just asked Jim the same question...here his response...:toast:old_school23 said:
hope it helps
GeneralZ
Jim and Z. I just read what I have been looking for in the other thread. Thanks Z, I have been spending endless hours trying to figure out what stats Jim sees, because I am convinced there is no common thread stat-wise that these winners share. Now I understand...you are watching a lot of games, you're a smart guy, and toss in a little luck and of course the value factor that you preach so much and kaboom you get hot and rake. Many of these winners paying parlay type return so damn forgive me for trying to disect your methodology. This is my first year and now that I know how you roll it's actually refreshing. Because I have said the same thing many times to myself after spending hours of time capping a game..."the line has already factored in the stats" that's no shit. They have spreadsheets that crunch it from every angle. Now it all is falling into place. It's still a battle against public perception in regards to finding value. That's what we play against. So, my hats off to you PKJ for being astute enough to "pick your spots" doggie style. It's encouraging more so than the value because it is more about using your sense than relying on stats. I like that. Stats still are the cornerstone, a reference, but to know that you do what you do using the things you mentioned helps me out tremendously.
And the Texas pick that is a solid pick. I wouldn't be surprised if Halliday no hits the anemic Texas offense today. And Toronto bats are definitely capable of doing serious dmage and they are due.
One thing I can see with Jim's style, and I know he said he uses a situation as a tool, but it seems like he sometimes goes with a team that's "due" which in general is a betting no no. But I like it. It can be just another tool, albiet a dangerous one, that can be used to turn a profit. Comments please about a team or pitcher being "due" as opposed to "never bet against a streak" mentality...
And the Texas pick that is a solid pick. I wouldn't be surprised if Halliday no hits the anemic Texas offense today. And Toronto bats are definitely capable of doing serious dmage and they are due.
One thing I can see with Jim's style, and I know he said he uses a situation as a tool, but it seems like he sometimes goes with a team that's "due" which in general is a betting no no. But I like it. It can be just another tool, albiet a dangerous one, that can be used to turn a profit. Comments please about a team or pitcher being "due" as opposed to "never bet against a streak" mentality...
Jim.... I guess from both of us thanks for the lesson, again...
Old School
I like you am new to this. I could not find a pattern with Jim either. Some of the poster like Jim just know baseball and the teams. I cannot say I do, so I look for patterns..Tulsa is interesting he caps the cappers. I suspect he has figured out a bunch that he follows..He also provides this for the members.. http://forum2.therx.com/showthread.php?t=387965
I have not picked Tulsa brain yet but plan to soon..
gl
GeneralZ
Old School
I like you am new to this. I could not find a pattern with Jim either. Some of the poster like Jim just know baseball and the teams. I cannot say I do, so I look for patterns..Tulsa is interesting he caps the cappers. I suspect he has figured out a bunch that he follows..He also provides this for the members.. http://forum2.therx.com/showthread.php?t=387965
I have not picked Tulsa brain yet but plan to soon..
gl
GeneralZ
