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Thread: Dog -1.5 & Fav -1.5 TUESDAY July 4th

  1. #1 Dog -1.5 & Fav -1.5 TUESDAY July 4th 
    Rx Post Doc Tulsa's Avatar
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    MONDAY'S Results:

    Decent day for Method 1, but Method 2 really suffers from not getting those alternative runline dog wins. I'm going to drop Method 2 from this point on. I am not going to be doing this thread much more than until the all-star break. Then, it is going underground. I know this hasn't been a long run, but I see enough to believe that this will work for me and be a good money maker. I am not using a system. I am trying to finesse (cap/gut/team characteristics) the plays out each day. I believe I can do that and have it work well.

    If any of you do this, then I would advise that you use two or more books to make your plays as not to show up on anyone's radar. To the ones that don't believe this will work over the long-run then that sounds silly to have more than one book for this (even more silly than trying this in the first place.) However, I am going to play each side at different books and I suggest anyone that does this do the same.

    Someone asked me about the problem of one book getting a really low balance and another book getting the larger balance. This will even out a bit, but that is the price for avoiding flagging an account from a particular book. Just rebalance once in a while if you have to.

    I still say that I suggest you not put any money on my plays. We have a few short days left to continue seeing if my methodology holds water. I am in no way wagering on this yet. If it continues well then I will drop this thread and begin just after the All Star break. Good luck. tulsa




    Method 1: both teams -1.5

    Cinci
    Milwaukee
    LOSE 200

    Washington +105

    Atlanta +90

    LA Dodgers +35

    Texas +78


    Method 2: Dog ML & Fav -1.5

    Cinci -1.5 +140
    Milwaukee -105
    $0 on this one...

    Washington +7

    St. Louis -1.5 +155
    Atlanta -104
    $0 on this one...

    LA Dodgers +35

    Texas +1


    Method 1: both -1.5
    OVERALL: +7.90 units over 34 plays
    Rate of Return: 7.90 units/68 units risked = 11.6%


    Method 2: dog ml and fav -1.5
    OVERALL: +1.89 units over 21 plays
    Rate of Return: 1.89 units/42 units risked = 4.5%
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  2. #2 Tuesday's Plays 
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    TUESDAY:

    Now, only using the Method 1: both teams -1.5

    Lines from 5Dimes

    Fla +150
    Wash +178

    ChiCubs +178
    Houston +145

    Cin +125
    Mil +210

    SF +130
    Col +210

    Ari +190
    LADodgers +155

    Toronto -115
    Texas +260
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  3. #3  
    RX Wizard goodcall's Avatar
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    YTD:
    27-7, +$259.65

    Yesterday:
    7-2 +$66.57

    Picks:
    7/4 $32.90 on PIT -1.5@+310
    7/4 $67.10 on NYM -1.5@+101

    7/4 $44.94 on CHC -1.5@+210
    7/4 $55.06 on HOU -1.5@+153

    7/4 $37.72 on BAL -1.5@+255
    7/4 $62.28 on CWS -1.5@+115

    7/4 $70.90 on BOS -1.5@-123
    7/4 $29.10 on TB -1.5@+341

    7/4 $47.09 on LAA -1.5@+200
    7/4 $52.91 on SEA -1.5@+167

    7/4 $54.77 on DET -1.5@+156
    7/4 $45.23 on OAK -1.5@+210

    7/4 $64.77 on STL -1.5@+104
    7/4 $35.23 on ATL -1.5@+275

    7/4 $65.72 on TOR -1.5@-108
    7/4 $34.28 on TEX -1.5@+270

    7/4 $65.29 on MIN -1.5@+102
    7/4 $34.71 on KC -1.5@+280

    7/4 $58.30 on SF -1.5@+136
    7/4 $41.70 on COL -1.5@+230
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  4. #4 So far very good! 
    Rx Post Doc Tulsa's Avatar
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    Let us get these three in: 1) dodgers game, 2) SF game, 3) texas game....LET us get these in with NO one run finals and this will have been a rip roaring good day...not over yet but good so far!

    tulsa

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  5. #5  
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    It doesn't bother me, so don't get me wrong, but I find it bemusing the number of views this thread gets each day relative to some of the other threads. Oh well, I'm not here to make any horses drink water.....

    However, I am drinking the water!! I'm starting to get excited and if this keeps up...in a few days this thread will be shut down and you won't hear me talk about it. I do feel that a few of us on here have done well to post ideas and thoughts (for and against) and truly shared an idea with the boards.

    The trial's not over, so let us see where we get today.... tulsa
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  6. #6  
    Rx Senior Kruser6's Avatar
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    Tulsa- Just wanted to stop in and wish ya luck on your new endeavor. You have always been a quality poster on the forum and your thoughts and comments are always a nice read. Hope you had a good holiday and hopefully I can get some extra time in the next couple months to get back in the game!
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  7. #7  
    Rx Post Doc Tulsa's Avatar
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    Kruser, good to hear from you. I hope all is well with you and that you are enjoying the summer.

    I hope you do get back with it soon as I always enjoy your posts. tulsa
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  8. #8  
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    tulsa, no (10.5's) out there today, yanks/clev closed at 10, along with minn/kc...

    9-0 since ive been tracking the (10.5's)

    several 10's out there tomorrow, but no 10.5's yet..
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  9. #9  
    Rx Post Doc Tulsa's Avatar
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    SSI, I appreciate you checking on the capacity of that play: 10.5's

    Funnily, when I checked I used 10 and up and only for about six or seven random days this season (fairly random....) and it "dan't du no good 'tal" so the extra .5 certainly may be the trick here.

    Good luck, SSI, and thanks again. tulsa
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  10. #10  
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    Well...a stellar day, and I MEAN STELLAR day got kicked right in the nuts by a wild pitch allowing one Rangers' run. DAMN. This was with two outs and two strikes in the bottom of the ninth.

    Then, it doesn't matter as Texas loses anyway....bastards. I was being greedy with this one anyway. Maybe I shouldn't be so greedy. If you'll notice, it the one game I picked in this entire trial where the fav was still minus $ with the -1.5. I was hoping that Texas would win and give a killer return. They gave me a killer return alright......

    Ah well...I'll have it all added up in a moment. tulsa
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  11. #11  
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    Tuesday's Results:

    Wash +78

    Houston +45

    Mil +110

    Col +110

    LADodgers +55

    Toronto -115
    Texas +260
    LOSE 215


    Today: +1.83 units

    Method: both teams -1.5
    OVERALL: +9.73 units over 40 plays
    Rate of Return: 9.73 units/80 units risked = 12.2%


    Good luck! tulsa
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  12. #12  
    RX Member shipdapaper's Avatar
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    congrats dude.....i know your working hard at this and its looking like its paying off!
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  13. #13  
    W-R-X Champion Dubpoet's Avatar
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    You were in a no win in Texas. You need to have + on both sides. In effect you could only win if Texas won by 2 and then you would have won 145. Toronto by 1.5 would have brought in 0.
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  14. #14  
    W-R-X Champion Dubpoet's Avatar
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    I would do this +140 at least on the worst side.
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  15. #15  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dubpoet
    You were in a no win in Texas. You need to have + on both sides. In effect you could only win if Texas won by 2 and then you would have won 145. Toronto by 1.5 would have brought in 0.
    That is not a no win situation....I was shooting for +145 (which is a huge return for one play) and on the other side, zero. It didn't work, but I wouldn't call it a no-win situation. Also, I probably won't do that anymore! lol

    Thanks and good luck, dubpoet. tulsa
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  16. #16  
    RX Wizard goodcall's Avatar
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    YTD:
    34-10, +$204.07

    Yesterday:
    7-3 -$55.58

    Picks:
    7/5 $61.18 on DET -1.5@+117
    7/5 $38.82 on OAK -1.5@+242

    7/5 $34.93 on PIT -1.5@+280
    7/5 $65.07 on NYM -1.5@+104

    7/5 $31.44 on CHC -1.5@+320
    7/5 $68.56 on HOU -1.5@-108

    7/5 $69.48 on MIN -1.5@-113
    7/5 $30.52 on KC -1.5@+328

    7/5 $40.07 on ARI -1.5@+250
    7/5 $59.93 on LAD -1.5@+134
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