Morning all, hope all is well back in the States. Sure do miss not being home for Independence Day and all the trappings that go along with it. Golf, a cookout and cold beers all day and night long sound so good right now...
First holiday I've been single since Christmas of 2004 so I'm a little lonely and sad about not getting to see my family and friends today, but I'll be headed back stateside next month for a week or so, that will be nice. As for tonight, I'll be cooking up a ribeye at the pad and relaxing with some Jack and Phil The Thrill...
Took the pipe on the A's Sunday but got some of it back yesterday on Blanton (he's money at home) in a dog-role over the Tigers. Other than that, I had Tampa, the Senators, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Atlanta and Baltimore but took the pipe on Seattle (big bet), Colorado, and the gotdamn Reds... It was a good day; since you all know I bet the A's every day I'll only use that for posting purposes. Sunday went 5-3 and won 730. Now at 173-206-7 and down 4814 for the season.
Hell of a card today. Lot of solid underdogs I'm biting on; some of these prices are downright ridiculous.
Nats are about the streakiest team in baseball and it looks like they're heating up again, having won three straight heading into this one. Patterson got rocked last time but he should be better in third start off the DL and at home, at close to even money, is the right side here.
The play: Washington -108 - 432 to win 400
The Mets have been outscored 27-8 in their last two games after Monday's 11-1 drubbing. They have now lost six of seven. One of them was in Tom Glavine's last start in Boston, 4-2. Glavine has had a great first half of the season but his pitch count per inning has been steadily rising and his arm could well be tired at this point. He only lasted five innings in Boston. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh starter Zane Duke allowed four runs in the first two innings against the White Sox on Thursday, but settled down to blank them in his last four innings. The lefty threw seven scoreless innings at Shea Stadium last season in his only career appearance against the Mets. This price is ridiculously high on the slumping Mets. Play Pittsburgh.
The play: Pittsburgh plus 197 - 400 to win 788
Pettitte won his only start against the Cubs this season, allowing one run on five hits over seven innings in a 9-2 win on June 13. He's also as good as any pitcher in July traditionally (12-4 in his most recent July starts). Prior is not healthy. His breaking pitches have not been on and his command isn't what it used to be. He's given up 15 ER in 15 IP since coming off the DL. Let's play the Astros on the RL as they should get plenty of Prior and Chub pen while Pettitte quiets the Flub bats.
THe play: HOU -1.5 runs plus 153 - 600 to win 918
Fondy said it best: The wrong team is favored here. Hensley has a 3.86 ERA and a 1.216 WHIP in 15 starts this season. He held the A's to one earned run on five hits and no walks last time, getting 10 ground-ball outs. Hamels is regressing. In his last 3 games, he has a 8.04 ERA with a 1.851 WHIP, losing all 3 of them. He will be a great pitcher in time, but this rookie hazing isn't quite over yet. San Diego still leads the NL West, while Philly has gone 17-29 since calling Hamels up from the minors.
THe play: San Diego plus 127 - 400 to win 508
Carpenter hasn't had much luck this season but his stuff has been solid as it was when he won the Cy Young last year. Cards going through a rough stretch but it looks like Edmonds might be coming around and if Carp gives them a good outing, they should be okay. Thomson coming off the DL and you know how I feel about fading guys in their first start off the DL, especially against someone like Carp.
The play: STL -150 - 1500 to win 1000
Lean to Snakes tonight in LA as Gonzalez's BA against is below the Mendoza line, while Sele turning into his usual swooning self. He struggles in July as well. In fact, what am I waiting on? Well shit. Price isn't what I thought and Zona has really been struggling save for their weekend sweep. Pass.
Meche is having a good year but come on, he has a lifetime ERA of 4.57 and has never been anything more than a third starter. He's beaten Anaheim twice this year, but they scored six runs and had 13 hits in the 10 1/3 innings Meche pitched, but he picked up the wins because his lineup scored a bunch more. He's just 3-9 the last few years in July. Angel starter Ervin Santana enters the game with a personal four-game winning streak over his last five starts in which he has a 2.48 ERA and limited opponents to a .196 batting average. They are the right side today and are very handsomely priced. Also, these teams played June 10, one of Meche's wins (he beat Lackey). The game was in Seattle and, like today, the HP UMP was Crawford. The score was 12-6. Expect it to be flip-flopped today. The correlation works.
The plays: Anaheim plus 124 - 400 to win 496
ANA/SEA OVER 8.5 plus 102 - 400 to win 408
2teams - ANA plus 124, OVER 8.5 -105 - 400 to win 1349.33
I realize the Cuban has yet to lose this season. Still, he's starting to show signs of backing up. Last time, Pittsburgh belted him for 12 hits and six runs in just 5 1/3 innings. He's now given up 26 runs in his last six outings. Against the Orioles, he's an ordinary 2-2 with a 5.45 ERA. Last time out, Lopez pitched into the eighth inning and had good enough stuff to win. The White Sox managed just two hits Monday and with six guys named to the All-Star team over the weekend (they join manager Ozzie Guillen), could be looking ahead.
The play: Baltimore plus 175 - 400 to win 700
Schilling lost his only start in Tampa this season (three runs over six IP in 5-4 loss April 30), while Fossum is a respectable 1-1 with 3.06 ERA at the Trop. Also 1-0 with a 1.46 ERA vs. Red Sox in 06. They struggled with Kazmir last night and it looks like the other Tampa lefty has their number as well. It's worth a shot.
THe play: Tampa plus 195 - 400 to win 780
Daily dose of Oakland. And we get Haren as a DOG???? Verlander lost his only start against the A's on April 18, allowing four runs on five hits over seven innings. Verlander has thrown 1,571 pitches this season. A's snapped three-game slide with win last night, expect them to continue their success against the rookie tonight.
THe play: Oakland EVEN - 400 to win 400
Two clown pitchers going tonight in Cleveland but the 6:00 start and the ump (Hirschbeck) keeping me away from the OVER... Lean to Westbrook but I'll pass.
Texas looks somewhat inviting, considering in Halladay's starts the Blue Jays are just 3-10 against them. Last year in Arlington, Kevin Mench lined one off his arm and ended his season. I'm off it for now but if the price goes up, count me in...
Also going to try Kansas City again tonight against the Twins. While Minnesota has won 19 of its last 20, the Twins still have no business being more than 8-to-5 on the road with Boof Bonser on the mound. The rookie hasn't seen action since June 24, and the Twins haven't won 12 straight since 1991, the last year they won the World Series. Gobble Gobble for KC tonight. The lefty has held opponents scoreless while giving up three hits over nine innings in his last eight appearances, spanning nine innings. Kansas City had been playing better as of late. Tonight, if the bullpen can hang on for Gobble, the Royals can win the game.
The play: Kansas City plus 150 - 400 to win 600
That's it fellas. GL to everyone and let's remember those who are protecting our country and giving Americans the right do all of the aforementioned things....
:toast:
First holiday I've been single since Christmas of 2004 so I'm a little lonely and sad about not getting to see my family and friends today, but I'll be headed back stateside next month for a week or so, that will be nice. As for tonight, I'll be cooking up a ribeye at the pad and relaxing with some Jack and Phil The Thrill...
Took the pipe on the A's Sunday but got some of it back yesterday on Blanton (he's money at home) in a dog-role over the Tigers. Other than that, I had Tampa, the Senators, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Atlanta and Baltimore but took the pipe on Seattle (big bet), Colorado, and the gotdamn Reds... It was a good day; since you all know I bet the A's every day I'll only use that for posting purposes. Sunday went 5-3 and won 730. Now at 173-206-7 and down 4814 for the season.
Hell of a card today. Lot of solid underdogs I'm biting on; some of these prices are downright ridiculous.
Nats are about the streakiest team in baseball and it looks like they're heating up again, having won three straight heading into this one. Patterson got rocked last time but he should be better in third start off the DL and at home, at close to even money, is the right side here.
The play: Washington -108 - 432 to win 400
The Mets have been outscored 27-8 in their last two games after Monday's 11-1 drubbing. They have now lost six of seven. One of them was in Tom Glavine's last start in Boston, 4-2. Glavine has had a great first half of the season but his pitch count per inning has been steadily rising and his arm could well be tired at this point. He only lasted five innings in Boston. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh starter Zane Duke allowed four runs in the first two innings against the White Sox on Thursday, but settled down to blank them in his last four innings. The lefty threw seven scoreless innings at Shea Stadium last season in his only career appearance against the Mets. This price is ridiculously high on the slumping Mets. Play Pittsburgh.
The play: Pittsburgh plus 197 - 400 to win 788
Pettitte won his only start against the Cubs this season, allowing one run on five hits over seven innings in a 9-2 win on June 13. He's also as good as any pitcher in July traditionally (12-4 in his most recent July starts). Prior is not healthy. His breaking pitches have not been on and his command isn't what it used to be. He's given up 15 ER in 15 IP since coming off the DL. Let's play the Astros on the RL as they should get plenty of Prior and Chub pen while Pettitte quiets the Flub bats.
THe play: HOU -1.5 runs plus 153 - 600 to win 918
Fondy said it best: The wrong team is favored here. Hensley has a 3.86 ERA and a 1.216 WHIP in 15 starts this season. He held the A's to one earned run on five hits and no walks last time, getting 10 ground-ball outs. Hamels is regressing. In his last 3 games, he has a 8.04 ERA with a 1.851 WHIP, losing all 3 of them. He will be a great pitcher in time, but this rookie hazing isn't quite over yet. San Diego still leads the NL West, while Philly has gone 17-29 since calling Hamels up from the minors.
THe play: San Diego plus 127 - 400 to win 508
Carpenter hasn't had much luck this season but his stuff has been solid as it was when he won the Cy Young last year. Cards going through a rough stretch but it looks like Edmonds might be coming around and if Carp gives them a good outing, they should be okay. Thomson coming off the DL and you know how I feel about fading guys in their first start off the DL, especially against someone like Carp.
The play: STL -150 - 1500 to win 1000
Lean to Snakes tonight in LA as Gonzalez's BA against is below the Mendoza line, while Sele turning into his usual swooning self. He struggles in July as well. In fact, what am I waiting on? Well shit. Price isn't what I thought and Zona has really been struggling save for their weekend sweep. Pass.
Meche is having a good year but come on, he has a lifetime ERA of 4.57 and has never been anything more than a third starter. He's beaten Anaheim twice this year, but they scored six runs and had 13 hits in the 10 1/3 innings Meche pitched, but he picked up the wins because his lineup scored a bunch more. He's just 3-9 the last few years in July. Angel starter Ervin Santana enters the game with a personal four-game winning streak over his last five starts in which he has a 2.48 ERA and limited opponents to a .196 batting average. They are the right side today and are very handsomely priced. Also, these teams played June 10, one of Meche's wins (he beat Lackey). The game was in Seattle and, like today, the HP UMP was Crawford. The score was 12-6. Expect it to be flip-flopped today. The correlation works.
The plays: Anaheim plus 124 - 400 to win 496
ANA/SEA OVER 8.5 plus 102 - 400 to win 408
2teams - ANA plus 124, OVER 8.5 -105 - 400 to win 1349.33
I realize the Cuban has yet to lose this season. Still, he's starting to show signs of backing up. Last time, Pittsburgh belted him for 12 hits and six runs in just 5 1/3 innings. He's now given up 26 runs in his last six outings. Against the Orioles, he's an ordinary 2-2 with a 5.45 ERA. Last time out, Lopez pitched into the eighth inning and had good enough stuff to win. The White Sox managed just two hits Monday and with six guys named to the All-Star team over the weekend (they join manager Ozzie Guillen), could be looking ahead.
The play: Baltimore plus 175 - 400 to win 700
Schilling lost his only start in Tampa this season (three runs over six IP in 5-4 loss April 30), while Fossum is a respectable 1-1 with 3.06 ERA at the Trop. Also 1-0 with a 1.46 ERA vs. Red Sox in 06. They struggled with Kazmir last night and it looks like the other Tampa lefty has their number as well. It's worth a shot.
THe play: Tampa plus 195 - 400 to win 780
Daily dose of Oakland. And we get Haren as a DOG???? Verlander lost his only start against the A's on April 18, allowing four runs on five hits over seven innings. Verlander has thrown 1,571 pitches this season. A's snapped three-game slide with win last night, expect them to continue their success against the rookie tonight.
THe play: Oakland EVEN - 400 to win 400
Two clown pitchers going tonight in Cleveland but the 6:00 start and the ump (Hirschbeck) keeping me away from the OVER... Lean to Westbrook but I'll pass.
Texas looks somewhat inviting, considering in Halladay's starts the Blue Jays are just 3-10 against them. Last year in Arlington, Kevin Mench lined one off his arm and ended his season. I'm off it for now but if the price goes up, count me in...
Also going to try Kansas City again tonight against the Twins. While Minnesota has won 19 of its last 20, the Twins still have no business being more than 8-to-5 on the road with Boof Bonser on the mound. The rookie hasn't seen action since June 24, and the Twins haven't won 12 straight since 1991, the last year they won the World Series. Gobble Gobble for KC tonight. The lefty has held opponents scoreless while giving up three hits over nine innings in his last eight appearances, spanning nine innings. Kansas City had been playing better as of late. Tonight, if the bullpen can hang on for Gobble, the Royals can win the game.
The play: Kansas City plus 150 - 400 to win 600
That's it fellas. GL to everyone and let's remember those who are protecting our country and giving Americans the right do all of the aforementioned things....
:toast:
