Well, except for the fact I drank my Jack and ate my ribeye by myself last night, it was a pretty decent Fourth of July for me. Back to level for the season, or close to it, trying to make one more push before the break. Ended up 9-4 and won 4491 yesterday. Now 182-210-7 and down 323 grocery for the year.
Some look good today but it's not like yesterday. Dogs continue to bark at a nice rate now that we're back to regular games. Teams like KC and Pitt continue to play hard, they'll continue to see me bet them in the right spots or if the prices are too ridiculous against them.
Peavy 1-5 in his last eight starts. Before you jump his ass, realize that his pitching luck is as bad as anyone's in baseball this season. He's about done with a bout of shoulder tendinitis. He's got 109 Ks and just 23 walks in 100 IP. One big inning has been his downfall all season - a 5-run fourth did in the Fathers yesterday as well. He has spoken out about being confident his luck is going to change soon. Mathieson is another young Philly arm but he gave up 5 runs in 2 2/3 last time because he was too reliable on the fastball. He struggled with his control and is making his first NL start against one of the best pitchers in the league. Only thing stopping this from being for more is the bizarre way Philly dominates this series (now won 11 straight). This price is way too cheap and I'll go back to the well on Diego.
The play: Diego -123 - 861 to win 700
Suppan has been consistently mediocre. But he's traditionally been a good pitcher in July. James is 2-0 after two starts. His delivery is difficult to get a read on, and since STL hasn't seen him yet, I expect his first trip or two through the lineup to be a breeze. He'll get help from Tim Welke, who is 34-46 L3 years, a definite U guy.
THe play: STL/ATL UNDER 9.5 -107 - 428 to win 400
Marshall faced HOU back to back in June and lost them both. Roy is being Roy, but not getting much help from his offense. He did beat the Cubs at Wrigley last month and the Astros are simply too much for this team right now.
The play: HOU -1.5 runs -106 - 530 to win 500
Shocked to see the total this high in the one day game. Rogers is an eye-popping 24-4 at Oakland Coliseum but he has struggled in his last two starts, giving up five ER each time and not even getting through the fifth last time out. The Gambler is laying a big tariff considering Oakland's pitchers have had their way in the first two of this series. Today, Saarloos is a drop off but consider in two appearances lifetime against the Tigers, he's 2-0 with a 1.47 ERA in 18 1/3 IP. Saarloos didn't give up more than 3 runs in any of his June starts. Buying up to 9.5 only cost 26 cents here and on a game I made 8.5 flat, I see remarkable value.
The plays: UNDER 9.5 -121 - 605 to win 500
Oakland plus 128 - 500 to win 640
2teams - OAK plus 123, UN 9 even - 400 to Win 1,384
Yankees regressing and if they were blasted so badly last night I'd jump at this CLE/U correlation. Mussina went four strong the other night before rain ended his no-hit bid in the Bronx, but his pen allowed only one hit to Mets in a game Yankees won 2-0. Byrd has been great his last five starts, keeping walks and ERs down and giving them a chance every time out. He went six scoreless Saturday, allowing nine hits and two walks and striking out five. He's solid if unspectacular and has worked his ERA out of the stratosphere and down to almost 4. I'll pass the side but see a solid pitcher's duel in the works and with Wally Bell behind the plate (10-21 since start of 2004 in AL), I'll take my chances.
The play: UNDER 9.5 -110 - 660 to win 600
The way the White Sox hit it you can almost count on them getting OVER by themselves. These pitchers are jokes; Cabrera walks the world (he leads the league in walks and wild pitches despite a 3-week stint on the DL last month)... and has gone past the sixth inning just five times in 14 starts this season. Garland's ERA vs. BAL is a mediocre 4.72. Hickox (23-16 overall L3 years) is behind the plate and won't hurt.
The play: BAL/CWS OVER 10.5 -101 - 505 to win 500
Padilla's Flotillas traditionally enjoy a fun July, as he hits his prime (7-3 last few Julys)... He is 2-1 with a 2.88 ERA in his last five starts, striking out 26 with just eight walks. This will be his first time against Toronto. Meanwhile, Janssen showing signs of rookie struggles. He was good against Philly last time out but had lost his last three starts with an ERA of 12.40 in them. I'll bank on him regressing and Vincente getting it done tonight.
The play: Tejas -114 - 570 to win 500
O'Nora and his remarkable 7-26 run on totals in AL parks the last three years is in Seattle tonight but no WAY I bet an under with Fat Boy Bart trudging out there again, not until he gets his velocity up and starts locating his pitches. Seattle is the right side but want no part of laying it with streaky Anaheim scoring all those runs yesterday. Tough to like Moyer even though he's pitched solidly, especially at home.... The price will certainly come down here as good money will come for Anaheim. I might get involved with Seattle if I can lay 15 cents or so....
THat's it for now. GL everyone.
:toast:
Some look good today but it's not like yesterday. Dogs continue to bark at a nice rate now that we're back to regular games. Teams like KC and Pitt continue to play hard, they'll continue to see me bet them in the right spots or if the prices are too ridiculous against them.
Peavy 1-5 in his last eight starts. Before you jump his ass, realize that his pitching luck is as bad as anyone's in baseball this season. He's about done with a bout of shoulder tendinitis. He's got 109 Ks and just 23 walks in 100 IP. One big inning has been his downfall all season - a 5-run fourth did in the Fathers yesterday as well. He has spoken out about being confident his luck is going to change soon. Mathieson is another young Philly arm but he gave up 5 runs in 2 2/3 last time because he was too reliable on the fastball. He struggled with his control and is making his first NL start against one of the best pitchers in the league. Only thing stopping this from being for more is the bizarre way Philly dominates this series (now won 11 straight). This price is way too cheap and I'll go back to the well on Diego.
The play: Diego -123 - 861 to win 700
Suppan has been consistently mediocre. But he's traditionally been a good pitcher in July. James is 2-0 after two starts. His delivery is difficult to get a read on, and since STL hasn't seen him yet, I expect his first trip or two through the lineup to be a breeze. He'll get help from Tim Welke, who is 34-46 L3 years, a definite U guy.
THe play: STL/ATL UNDER 9.5 -107 - 428 to win 400
Marshall faced HOU back to back in June and lost them both. Roy is being Roy, but not getting much help from his offense. He did beat the Cubs at Wrigley last month and the Astros are simply too much for this team right now.
The play: HOU -1.5 runs -106 - 530 to win 500
Shocked to see the total this high in the one day game. Rogers is an eye-popping 24-4 at Oakland Coliseum but he has struggled in his last two starts, giving up five ER each time and not even getting through the fifth last time out. The Gambler is laying a big tariff considering Oakland's pitchers have had their way in the first two of this series. Today, Saarloos is a drop off but consider in two appearances lifetime against the Tigers, he's 2-0 with a 1.47 ERA in 18 1/3 IP. Saarloos didn't give up more than 3 runs in any of his June starts. Buying up to 9.5 only cost 26 cents here and on a game I made 8.5 flat, I see remarkable value.
The plays: UNDER 9.5 -121 - 605 to win 500
Oakland plus 128 - 500 to win 640
2teams - OAK plus 123, UN 9 even - 400 to Win 1,384
Yankees regressing and if they were blasted so badly last night I'd jump at this CLE/U correlation. Mussina went four strong the other night before rain ended his no-hit bid in the Bronx, but his pen allowed only one hit to Mets in a game Yankees won 2-0. Byrd has been great his last five starts, keeping walks and ERs down and giving them a chance every time out. He went six scoreless Saturday, allowing nine hits and two walks and striking out five. He's solid if unspectacular and has worked his ERA out of the stratosphere and down to almost 4. I'll pass the side but see a solid pitcher's duel in the works and with Wally Bell behind the plate (10-21 since start of 2004 in AL), I'll take my chances.
The play: UNDER 9.5 -110 - 660 to win 600
The way the White Sox hit it you can almost count on them getting OVER by themselves. These pitchers are jokes; Cabrera walks the world (he leads the league in walks and wild pitches despite a 3-week stint on the DL last month)... and has gone past the sixth inning just five times in 14 starts this season. Garland's ERA vs. BAL is a mediocre 4.72. Hickox (23-16 overall L3 years) is behind the plate and won't hurt.
The play: BAL/CWS OVER 10.5 -101 - 505 to win 500
Padilla's Flotillas traditionally enjoy a fun July, as he hits his prime (7-3 last few Julys)... He is 2-1 with a 2.88 ERA in his last five starts, striking out 26 with just eight walks. This will be his first time against Toronto. Meanwhile, Janssen showing signs of rookie struggles. He was good against Philly last time out but had lost his last three starts with an ERA of 12.40 in them. I'll bank on him regressing and Vincente getting it done tonight.
The play: Tejas -114 - 570 to win 500
O'Nora and his remarkable 7-26 run on totals in AL parks the last three years is in Seattle tonight but no WAY I bet an under with Fat Boy Bart trudging out there again, not until he gets his velocity up and starts locating his pitches. Seattle is the right side but want no part of laying it with streaky Anaheim scoring all those runs yesterday. Tough to like Moyer even though he's pitched solidly, especially at home.... The price will certainly come down here as good money will come for Anaheim. I might get involved with Seattle if I can lay 15 cents or so....
THat's it for now. GL everyone.
:toast:
