I am happy to share what it is that I do...
I apologize for the lateness of my reply.
First, there are several people that will tell you that a person cannot win doing this. I guess some people can't win at this. Many people can't balance their check-book.
Here is what happened to me to help me realize the really big picture. I was having an awful time picking winners in 1995 or so in the NFL. I always played every game on the board (wow....I wasn't real good at this at the time) and I played every game on the board for the same price. 12 or so games on Sunday and the 13th on Monday night.
I just fully believed that if the house lets a person choose a side then how great a thing that is! I can pick either team! How can there not be a way to beat the book? I knew it wouldn't be easy and I started slogging along losing money.
That year I was going 4-8 or 5-7 every Sunday, week after week. I was working my ass off on every game (stupid of me not to pick my battles better) and still losing money. SO, I got the genious idea of doing the same thing I did every week and capping the games and finding my best 12 plays out of the 12 games on Sunday. BUT THEN playing the opposite side. At the time, I didn't know the term, but I 'faded' myself right down the card. That Sunday I went 1-11. One and eleven.
I would have gone 11-1. I had never even remotely come close to 11-1 before or even since then. BUT, that made me realize something. That made me realize how much WE as cappers affect our decisions in this endeavor to find the winners. I also was smacked right in the head by the FULL realization that the whole process was not random as many people would have you believe. There are random things that happen in the games, sure. But the lines and most aspects of the games aren't random.
If they aren't random (which means there is some pattern even though the pattern may shift over time) and if you are allowed to choose either side then you know what that means? That's right: It is winnable, someway and somehow.
I came to another very important FULL realization as well: I realized how much I, myself, affected my choices involving these NFL games. I realized how just having money involved caused me to have different feelings and emotions involved with the decisions versus when I was picking plays for fun. This also cemented in my mind the truth about how the process is non-random. If a process is random, our decisions cannot make the results of the process non-random. My decisions were resulting in VERY non-random outcomes which helped me KNOW in my heart that the process was beatable.
So, here is what I know and what I do. I realized I had to separate myself from the process for the most part. I tried mechanical/statistical systems to choose plays. For the most part they don't do so hot, but I have a couple I still use that I developed. Still...not good enough. Then I came upon the answer that has helped me achieve very good results in this endeavor.
This business is a social science, not a hard science. It is about people. People playing, people wagering and people setting and adjusting the lines because of the aforementioned people wagering and playing. I realized that teams are streaky and bettors are streaky. I realized that the lines were set more for the bettors and their expectations than for the game and the reality of that game. Don't get me wrong...bettors' expectations, opening lines, line movement AND the actuality of the game itself are related, sure. But not 1-1 and onto, meaning that there are variances in the interpretation of each of those non-random facets of sports wagering.
In short, the sports wagering environment is about people. People and their expectations. I can work with that. The internet allows me access to much information in this manner including this GREAT site.
Now, there is much I could go on about, but I won't for your sake and mine. Maybe this 'long' bit I'm typing can help someone win or change their perspective. Just a couple more things.
Decide if you like to earn money or just enjoy the excitement of having money on a game.
Bettors are streaky and this can be used. Find good cappers that are hitting a winning streak. Bet with them. You don't have to use their wager sizes (I mean percentage of bankroll sizes.) If Jerry Greatcapper has a 10 unit play and he has been kicking ass of late then just play his play as a normal one or two unit play. A winner is a winner but a 11 unit loser is a beating.
There are not ever any sure wins. IN fact, just avoid the games on the card that look really, really easy. Why? Well, you may be right and the side you like might win, so you can't fade that feeling. But, those lose way more often than they should. The number of times that you win with the 'easy, easy' choices does not pay for the losses you will incur on those...not nearly. ALSO, there is a real psychological cost to those types of losses. They will make you think that God or the Universe is against you. If everyone on the boards is talking about an easy side and if you see the same 'easy' money in the play, then don't fade it. Just move on.
If a great capper has a play that they are almost selling to the board...just stay away. Follow people but follow those winning the last couple of days and up positive units for the season and follow only the sober plays they offer. Not the "Guys...I have to tell you: This is THE game of the year right here. I know there are no locks or guarantees, but this game is money in the pocket. I have been kicking ass and today I am going to put 30% of my bankroll on this play.....this is best play I've seen in a long time." We've all seen it. We all put too much on it. And they lose often enough to be a killer both fiscally and mentally.
Why? THERE ARE NO plays of the year or century or month etc.... there just are not.
Again, why not? Because the guys doing this on the book/oddsmakers side do this day in and day out and there are more than one person involved and they are better at that part of it than anyone, or they would be fired quickly. These companies are better than any one person at that side of the business. Games of the year or month may win, but they do not cover the times they lose AND they still win enough to make you want to try again next time. You see someone (even a very good capper) OVER confident in a play? Don't fade them. They may be right. Just walk away. There is no easy money.
Look for cappers winning and taking a game you hadn't even seen a possibility in and that not many people are talking about. Those are the money games for me. Use your head, though. If you just hate the side he has then walk away. First, use good people on good winning streaks to get you to your plays. Then, use your head and gut to determine whether to play or walk away. Learn to walk away. You may have no opinion on a game, but if a great capper on a good streak soberly offers up a play for which you have no real disdain, then that might be a good play.
I hate to tell you this, but it is true and I've already mentioned it above. You have to use your gut-feelings in this and be in the right frame of mind. You really do. I'm not saying just use your gut-feelings. In fact they are just a last filter for a game. There are many filtering steps I go through before I have a play. The gut check is really the last one.
Say I see a capper on a great streak and that capper has a history of being very good and I am closely watching his plays each day. Say he has a play that I am liking that day and am going to play. BUT, I also see Nimrod Twopost calling the same game a lock and stating that he is putting his entire roll on the same exact play. I may very well walk away from that game. I have to rely on my good sense to help me determine that.
Dang, I'm rambling and there is much I would like to say:
here are some of my thought processes each day for getting a play or two a day. All I want is at most three plays.
1.) I look at the card. I scratch any really easy winners I like at the prices they are at. example of something I don't automatically scratch: Yanks at home with Mussina at a price of -2.40 I sometimes will play a -2.40 and one other ML game in a two-team parlay. I don't do it often and it has worked for me over time. Otherwise I stay away from the expensive games.
I do scratch Yanks at home, at night, with a healthy Mussina at a price of -1.40 when they are playing the Devil Rays after losing to the DRays the day before...you see what I mean.
2.) I read everyone's posts on the boards leading up to game time. Everyone's....well, most everyone's. It ain't that hard. I scratch the games off that everyone seem excited about and focusing on too much.
3.) I make sure to go back and check the good cappers' last few day's results. They have to be up in units for the season with a real good win% (except for a couple of great cappers like Poker King Jim who do this in a way that win% has no meaning whatsoever) and have been winning the last couple of days with that breezy confidence we all can see. Stay away from Greatcapper when he says,
"Well, we are doing great overall and I'm pleased to be up forty units, but I hate giving back the units we did yesterday. Damn, these last three days have killed me!! Well, let's get 'em today. There are a couple today that I really like!! We are due to get back on track."
Walk away.
4.) Why do you think I score best bet threads. Use them. There are cappers in there with higher than 62% win percentages over lots of games!! I don't do it for fun, I'll tell you that, though I do believe the best bet threads are fun in many ways. Grading them is not fun, though. Guys win in streaks and lose in streaks. Never bet on a guy that is a great capper but is losing lately. Well, Jimmy Bestbet is a 70% winner over 60 games!! Wow! He's lost three in a row so he HAS to win this next one, no doubt. No he doesn't. Walk away from his pick. You may end up with that side he likes as your play for the day, but it had better be for a different reason than "Jimbo Bestbet is due for a win since he's a 70% winner and he's lost three in a row."
5.) I don't use line movement a lot. I don't take steam into consideration very much because it can be hard to spot. HOWEVER, if I like a play at this stage I go to 'carib player picks' and see what percentages of bets (not money) are on each side. THEN I go to Don Best (I know there are better and some are premium...don't give me too hard a time) and look at Don Best's free odd reporting service. The main thing I look for is this: 83% of wagers are on a side at Carib Player Picks. Don Best shows what it calls the opening line (it really isn't a good opening line but it serves its purpose with me) and the line was say, -1.90 for the side that 83% of wagers at Carib Player Picks are on. But NOW the line is averaging -1.75 several minutes before the game starts... Red Flag! Something isn't right.
6.) I've got to stop for your sakes.... I apologize if you've made it this far. I just would like to share what I do with you guys.... It ain't rocket science but it cost me a lot to get here.
7.) Finally, if I just don't like a play and have a bad feeling about it, I don't play it. If it wins then I am happy that I was able to have the winner on my short list. If it loses then I'm even happier.
There is much more that I think about and do, but all that above is plenty for now. Good luck and best to you. Remember, there is never easy money. There are never sure winners. Random (or as good as random) events can look like patterns. You can win 60% of your plays and lose $ due to poor self-control and poor money management.
Try to play fewer games: many times we play more games because of a fear that our initial games will not win...we are trying to hedge our losses before the games even start. If there is that fear, then those probably shouldn't have been a play to start. Here is what I used to do:
"Well, I've got Yankees, Braves and Astros.... I'd better play a couple more in case two of those lose. I can't go 1-2!! So, I'm adding Rangers and Brewers as one or both of those will win and both won't lose."
Have you ever done that? Don't play more games out of fear that some of your games will lose. That is a path to nowhere.
tulsa
Your work with Baseball Best BET Open to all posters is great!
