disagree with the play. Roger is on fire, has not dropped a set Vs quality opponents in Gasquet (won a grass tune-up tourney) Berdych and Ancic (likely his biggest threat left standing, and he beats him in straights). Roger can become the first man since Borg in '76 to win Wimbledon without dropping a set. Jonas' serve is avearge at best.
i'll be stunned if Jonas takes a set off him. Having said that, no doubt there is great 'value' at +510 to win 1 set. The Jonas is a great volleyer and in terrific, out-of-skin form. His last two matches have gone the distance, 5 sets, and last 3 of 4!! Jonas also plays doubles. WILL the 34 yr old have anything left in the tank Vs World number 1?
gl with the play
Roger is relishing a potenetial meeting with Nadal in the finals.......oh dear, PAYBACKVILLE.
i'll be stunned if Jonas takes a set off him. Having said that, no doubt there is great 'value' at +510 to win 1 set. The Jonas is a great volleyer and in terrific, out-of-skin form. His last two matches have gone the distance, 5 sets, and last 3 of 4!! Jonas also plays doubles. WILL the 34 yr old have anything left in the tank Vs World number 1?
gl with the play
Roger is relishing a potenetial meeting with Nadal in the finals.......oh dear, PAYBACKVILLE.
nah- i think he understands the bet...
what I think he is saying is....since Federer is 15-0 in sets already...you're getting +500 value, for Federer eventually to lose a set, aka 'due' factor. I think thats what he meant by saying to win 1 of 15 sets.
I personally dont see it happening...but its a +500 bet...nothing he'll be panicing over and he sees value. Bjorkman has te be getting fatigued & fedex on top of his game...i see straight sets, but then again- I wouldnt lay the juice on it.
what I think he is saying is....since Federer is 15-0 in sets already...you're getting +500 value, for Federer eventually to lose a set, aka 'due' factor. I think thats what he meant by saying to win 1 of 15 sets.
I personally dont see it happening...but its a +500 bet...nothing he'll be panicing over and he sees value. Bjorkman has te be getting fatigued & fedex on top of his game...i see straight sets, but then again- I wouldnt lay the juice on it.
dr03 said:
Disagree. If Federer loses concentration and focus for 20 minutes, he can lose two service games and go down a set. He will come back, and won't be worried about a 3-1 win.
If we assume that the probability of Federer winning each set is 90%, there is a 28% chance that Bjorkman wins one of of the first three sets. A 28% chance at +510 seems very decent - and that doesn't even consider the fact that one can get bored, lose concentration, or try to conserve energy.
royalfan said:
damn i thought i was crystal clear, i'll try again. I DISAGREE with the play (reasoning was explained already), i think Fed wins in 3.
for 'value' players, and folks thast MUST have a play on this particular play, the 'value' lays in Jonas at +510 to take 1 set. It's a no play for me cause the comebacks juice is insane and i dont play those kinds of lines on tennis, never
does that make nore sense.
I was just giving my 2-cents here as no one had done any analysis/quirp into this play. I'm a tennis capper, doesn't seem this sport is covered much at Rx. Why?
levistep said:
wrong and yes, lol. Your first statement is correct, have no idea what the remaining is
this is a Grand Slam, its best of five. The first player to win 3 sets wins the match. The bet is that Jonas WILL WIN 1 set. That's all he has to do win one set---ie., he CANNOT LOSE IN STRAIGHTS
example; Federer wins 6-3,6-2,7-6
the play loses, as Jonas did not win one set
example 2-- Federer wins 6-3,3-6,6-2,7-6
the play is a winner, Jonas won the second set
