Dog -1.5 & Fav -1.5 THURSDAY July 6th

Tulsa · Jul 6, 2006

This produced a decent day on Wednesday.

Wednesday's Results:

San Diego +25

Cincinnati
Milwaukee
LOSE 200

Colorado +70

NYYankees +30

Tampa Bay +80

ChiSox +20

Texas +60

LAAngels +80

Wednesday: +1.65 units

Method: both teams -1.5
OVERALL: +11.38 units over 48 plays
Rate of Return: 11.38 units/96 units risked = 11.9%

Good luck! tulsa

Tulsa · Jul 6, 2006

<TABLE class=tborder cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=6 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=page><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=bottom><TD style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">goodcall</TD><TD class=smallfont align=right>07-06-2006 12:32 AM</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><HR>YTD:
37-12, +$100.20

Yesterday:
3-2 -$103.87

Picks:
7/6 $37.29 on PIT -1.5@+270
7/6 $62.71 on NYM -1.5@+120

7/6 $63.83 on BOS -1.5@+104
7/6 $36.17 on TB -1.5@+260

7/6 $37.46 on CIN -1.5@+259
7/6 $62.54 on ATL -1.5@+115

7/6 $40.77 on CHC -1.5@+240
7/6 $59.23 on MIL -1.5@+134

7/6 $35.20 on BAL -1.5@+270
7/6 $64.80 on CWS -1.5@+101

7/6 $62.39 on TOR -1.5@+111
7/6 $37.61 on KC -1.5@+250
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Tulsa · Jul 6, 2006

<TABLE class=tborder cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=6 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=page><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=bottom><TD style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">SSI</TD><TD class=smallfont align=right>07-05-2006 09:48 PM</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><HR>tulsa, 2 more wins tonight for the (10.5's)...... bos/tb and cws/balt

11-0 over last 6 days, i still havent finished may or june..

breakeven in april and 1st 10 days of may.. ill get around to doing it..
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
SSI, thanks for looking at those. The results are fairly amazing. Let us know if you get through any more and thanks for doing this. tulsa

Tulsa · Jul 6, 2006

Ok...I have done this over a 13 day period. In that 13 day period, two days I had other things going on and didn't make any plays using this method.

11 days of this and 48 plays means an average of 4 to 5 games per day.

Just over 11 units up over 11 days work. A ROI (return on investment) of nearly 12% which is very good.

I never felt a big pressure with this. I didn't spend hours examining the card for this method. First, I looked at the games that had reasonable payout for each team on the -1.5 runs. Reasonable to me is not the same as what some of you may consider reasonable. For example, I don't mind those games that the favorite is -1.5 runs for +115 if the dog -1.5 runs pays 'a lot.'

What makes this system really work, I believe, is the fact that dogs in the games I've selected win the alternative run-line at a clip of a couple a day and THEY PAY GREAT!

After I found the games that had reasonable payout for each team on the -1.5 runs, the second thing I would do is examine the games for matchups that had teams that I'd noticed over time have a way of playing baseball condusive to scoring.

For example, I've noticed over time that the Pittsburgh Pirates don't seem to win or lose by very many runs. Now, this is no rocket science and I did not go back and examine the stats. I was just putting minimal effort to see if this worked and it did. I tried to avoid teams like Pittsburgh BUT tried to utilize teams that like to smack the ball around like the Rangers but who seem to be streaky with their runs...either 9 runs or 1 run...

I might be wrong about my team impressions as I didn't do any hard research as I was choosing the games each day, but something about the way I was choosing the games was clicking...

I haven't wagered a red cent on this method...but will begin to do so immediately. Mine is no system as it requires finessing out the games that I believe will have a decent run 'spread' in the final score.

Now that I will be implementing this method I also will do a little more homework on my games each day regarding the last two weeks scoring trends for the teams in each game I'm considering and/or their success or lack of success against the pitcher they are facing...'stuff' like that. I'm not going to change what I'm doing much, just try to be a little more methodical in my choices.

One other thing I would suggest anyone trying this to do: watch for great pitchers (or perceived great pitchers) against other actual or perceived great pitchers as one of the two or both will get rocked more often than not. Hyped pitching matchups rarely end in a 1-2 final. One of the pitchers will get rocked... Again, this is just my perception.

You might like to take a great or perceived great pitcher on one side and a shitty pitcher on the other side, BUT the -1.5 prices aren't good in those situations as one team may be too big a favorite.

If any of you do this, I strongly advise you to play each side at different shops and do a bit of shopping too.

I hope that SSI will share any more information he finds on the games that have totals at 10.5 or higher. Any of you interested in this might look into that yourselves as well. It looks like that actual 'system' may have merit and I am going to look into it further myself.

But, as of now, I'm closing up shop. The trial is over. Now it is time to start making money. Good luck and thanks to everyone that took the time to offer ideas, insight and advice. tulsa

Dubpoet · Jul 6, 2006

Doesn't Pinny have the best RL and ARL. Assuming so and that you are hitting two books to fly under the radar, have you found the best combo. Favs at Pinny, Dog RLs at 5 dimes or do you look at each game.

Please share

Tulsa · Jul 6, 2006

Dub, you're telling me more than I can tell you. I haven't played this for any money at all. I have an account at 5Dimes and for this trial I have been using their lines solely.

However, what I plan to do is open and fund accounts at a couple more places that 1) are quality and 2) offer competitive Alternative Runlines. If you say Pinnacle is one place I should check out then I certainly will. We know they are quality.

Sorry I don't have more info on this side of it.... I will pass on what I find out as I'm doing it. tulsa

Dubpoet · Jul 6, 2006

Also if you hit say both sides of one of the games with the best odds at pinny and played only one side at pinny for the rest of the games and 5 Dimes for the other sides, do you think they would care. As long as you have some other plays that don't look fishy?

Dubpoet · Jul 6, 2006

Yea Pinny especially for the regular RL crushes 5 dimes odds usually. Anyway Good Luck.

SSI · Jul 6, 2006

ok tulsa. totals of 10.5 or higher and laying the (-1.5) runs.

april: 28-8
may: 43-11
june: 46-16

July: 11-0

total: 128-35

looks like around (+1.55) payback is breakeven..

what do you make of this? i didnt run down the units..

July 6: cws (-1.09)/balt (+2.70)

so far thats all today and it looks like our choices would be, lose 2.09 units or breakeven or make 1.70 units..

ill keep you posted..

i also believe colorado had about 8-10 of the 35 losses..

Tulsa · Jul 6, 2006

Dubpoet said:
Also if you hit say both sides of one of the games with the best odds at pinny and played only one side at pinny for the rest of the games and 5 Dimes for the other sides, do you think they would care. As long as you have some other plays that don't look fishy?

I'm not sure what books use to flag accounts for 'sharp' or whatever you want to call them plays...

I'm sure if you have regular play at a shop and have one play every few that you play on both sides of the -1.5 it probably wouldn't raise any eyebrows. Hell, it might not even raise any eyebrows if you played both sides at the same site every time and won big money.

It is just too easy to avoid that AND between shops lines vary enough with regard to the alternative runlines that it is also more profitable to use more than one shop, I am sure. tulsa

FullyEclipsed · Jul 6, 2006

Tulsa said:
I'm not sure what books use to flag accounts for 'sharp' or whatever you want to call them plays...

I'm sure if you have regular play at a shop and have one play every few that you play on both sides of the -1.5 it probably wouldn't raise any eyebrows. Hell, it might not even raise any eyebrows if you played both sides at the same site every time and won big money.

It is just too easy to avoid that AND between shops lines vary enough with regard to the alternative runlines that it is also more profitable to use more than one shop, I am sure. tulsa

I am not really sure that it matters to a book that you play both sides. I have been playing 1 game a day for the past week and using yesterday as an example I put up $275 to win $75 in the end. What book isn't licking there chops on that kind of payout for my risk?

It would be really interesting to see what a books response would be to a question like that.

I have a book that I don't use anymore. Would it be a bad idea just to shoot them a email to see what they would say?

passingthewind · Jul 6, 2006

SSI or Tulsa does that mean when you see a game that is 10.5 or higher you play both sides using the run line and reverse run line or just one side, thanks

Tulsa · Jul 6, 2006

FullyEclipsed, a couple of things... How has your one play a day worked over the week? Do you have any hard method for choosing that game?

You say you had $275 at risk...did you split that evenly on each side and if not, then how do you determine how much to place on each side?

As for emailing the book, I don't think it would hurt anything at all. BUT, you have no reason to believe what they tell you is true. They will tell you 'sure...we don't mind a bit...reload your account today and we'll give you a 10% bonus.' Then, you win playing both sides at that book over the course of three weeks and eighty plays and they shut you down.

You could email any book and ask "Do you guys mind if a large net winner plays at your book?" Every last one will say, "Not at all....come on in." Then after you win a bit they will either shut you down or severely reduce your wager limits: think VIPSports or bet365. Not all books will shut you down, but EVERY book will say "No problem, come on in..."

tulsa

Tulsa · Jul 6, 2006

passingthewind said:
SSI or Tulsa does that mean when you see a game that is 10.5 or higher you play both sides using the run line and reverse run line or just one side, thanks

We aren't playing that for money just yet, first off. SSI is just trying to figure out how much the total can help predict a more than one run final score. The idea is to play each side at -1.5 runs each for greater than 1 return (not -ML, but +ML) If they have a final score with a larger than one run spread then the two sides split out and you get the residual positive money. If the final is a one run differential then you just got fucked.

BY THE WAY guys...that is our goal, really. What factors can we find that will indicate a high probability of more than a one run final.
tulsa

passingthewind · Jul 6, 2006

That would be an awesome way to play if it can be figured out. Is their a way to incorporate some type of spread sheet or something. Last week I had a small play on Pitt on the reverse run line, it was pure luck and it was only for $50.00 but it paid nicely. Could you and/or SSI please let us know if you need any help or what comes of it. Thanks.

slcgreg · Jul 6, 2006

Tulsa,
You have had better results with your test than I have had with mine. However, I too will be playing with real money, and hope I can duplicate your results.

SSI · Jul 6, 2006

with the (10.5's) there is only one play today, so far,,,,,,,, but 2 more could make it there, atl/cinn or sd/phil...

tulsa, are you playing the first game today.. wash (+1.60) with fla(+1.91) and a 9.5 total.......... pretty good payback on both sides..

btw, your talking about a system, just not a mechanical system...

if you only look at 10.5 or higher totals, then your talking about a 100% mechanical system, which takes all of a couple of minutes work and no thinking or any input from yourself... in other words, in a mechanical system, you take yourself out of the equation..

FullyEclipsed · Jul 6, 2006

Tulsa said:
FullyEclipsed, a couple of things... How has your one play a day worked over the week? Do you have any hard method for choosing that game?

You say you had $275 at risk...did you split that evenly on each side and if not, then how do you determine how much to place on each side?

As for emailing the book, I don't think it would hurt anything at all. BUT, you have no reason to believe what they tell you is true. They will tell you 'sure...we don't mind a bit...reload your account today and we'll give you a 10% bonus.' Then, you win playing both sides at that book over the course of three weeks and eighty plays and they shut you down.

You could email any book and ask "Do you guys mind if a large net winner plays at your book?" Every last one will say, "Not at all....come on in." Then after you win a bit they will either shut you down or severely reduce your wager limits: think VIPSports or bet365. Not all books will shut you down, but EVERY book will say "No problem, come on in..."

tulsa

I agree that they won't be truly honest with me if I ask them. They have been sending me a ton of emails with reload bonuses to come back. So it probably wouldn't be useful.

As far as the game that I choose:

I have been following your thread and I think it is a great idea (Thanks!) but I feel that I wanted to keep it limited to one game a day because 1 run games will happen through out the day and I like my odds of just settling on one.

I am not using any hard methods of choosing. I first go with the ones with the best value on both sides and start eliminating by looking at starting pitchers, cold or hot streaks, if I feel it is going to be a high scoring game. Bullpen performane.

I also like to look at how many games a team has had 1 run games. Most of it is on feel as I am sure you know.

Somedays I split the money up evenly or as it was yesterday I put more on 1 side because I thought they had a better chance but it was the other team that pulled through. But I do try to make it to where if there is a big price difference that whichever team wins I will be happy with the result for how much I wagered.

Tulsa · Jul 6, 2006

SSI, I am going to play the Fla/Wash game today! It is nice for either side on this one. Good luck if you decide to take it. tulsa

Snets · Jul 6, 2006

Here's my 2 cents...

I have played this for a week now and have been wagering real $ since monday I am up 5.78 units (yesterday all plays were half units).

Observations:
1 day I swept all my plays - yay
2 days I lost on 1 game (a 1 run game) but still made money
I have made money every day
My unit size is $100
I have avoided playing +120 and lower until today - I'll explain later
I have also started looking into -2.5's the times teams win by 3 or more is quite exceptional.
This past week the Dogs have been exceptional that really pumps up the payoff.

Example last night on my plays the dogs were 4 for 5 @ +200, +180, +170 & +180 - yummy.

I used this stat sheet originally to look at who is a money rl team. MODS you can delete this if is in appropriate - sorry in advance if it is.

However check out the RL stats on some teams example the METS are +money as ML but negative as a RL which I think means they win more 1 run games than multiple run games. Which when my buddy researched that theory it came up true. As well they are prolly heavy chalk sometimes when Pedro has been pitching

http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/statistics/2006/teammoneystatistics.html

I think it will be important to revisist this from time to time to watch trends.

I try to avoid games I think that may go under.

Here are my plays for today

Marlins +180 1*
Washington +160 1*

Padres +175 1*
Phils +160 1*

Reds +230 .5*
Braves +115 1* & ARL +190 .5* - Late nite for reds extra's could be flat

Cubs ML +145 .5* +220 .5* - Same reasoning on brewers
Capuano +125 1*

Cards +170 1*
Astros +165 1*

Giants +175 1*
Dodgers +170 1*

Yankees +145 1*
Injuns +180 1*

The extra innings could be flat reasoning is based on what happened to the Yanks & Mets on monday after their late sunday night game check it out they both got shelled.

GL guys hope this helps & remember no 1 run games!

snets

Dog -1.5 & Fav -1.5 THURSDAY July 6th

Rx Post Doc

Rx Post Doc

Rx Post Doc

Rx Post Doc

W-R-X Champion

Rx Post Doc

W-R-X Champion

W-R-X Champion

New member

Rx Post Doc

*V Andrea Rincon *V

New member

Rx Post Doc

Rx Post Doc

New member

Go Cowboys!

New member

*V Andrea Rincon *V

Rx Post Doc

Banned

Forum statistics

Share this page

V Andrea Rincon V

V Andrea Rincon V