Small card for me today. Not thrilled with these and despite my success on Tuesday, I'm not running good right now. Already got Friday's pitchers and will get started on them soon. Went 2-7 and blow 2493 last night. Now 184-217-7 and down 2816 in 2006 bases...
Tough to gauge who exactly is focused this weekend and who is not. Don't get caught laying a big price with anyone - that's all I'mma say. You'll see me on far more dogs than even usual this weekend if the prices are out of whack.
Teams playing hard lately - Kansas City (13-7 last 20 comes to mind) as dogs most every time out have been solid moneymakers for a month now. Pittsburgh has shown signs of life. Florida has vaulted themselves into the thick of things for second in the NL East. Minnesota has been scary good, especially at home. And teams like them and Boston shows just how superior the AL is to the NL at this point. They've won the last two All-Star games and anything less than -130 on them in Pittsburgh looks like plain stealing to me. I think it might open a quarter and close between 35 and 40.
On the other hand, the Cubs just plain suck and I swear I think Dusty manages to get fired sometimes. Other fade machines after the break include the Mets (prices will be too high, they play .500 here on in and prolly win the division but would lose you money); Cleveland (until they fire this manager); Arizona (too many holes in the rotation)...
I think Atlanta will make their yearly run in the NL East. I think St. Louis made a nice trade getting another arm, Jeff Weaver, for their rotation. Talent is there and now Dave Duncan gets another reclamation project, his specialty. Houston will make their second-half charge. Wild-card is wide-open so not sure who will be making trades and who will stand pat. Mediocre teams like Reds, all the NL West, Milwaukee, right there in the mix and if it stays that way in the two weeks after the break, will lead to interesting developments at the deadline.
Onto Thursday's mess...
The Mets are ridiculously overpriced tonight. Gorzelanny got me the cash the other day with a fairly impressive performance. He's Pittsburgh's top pitching prospect and got me the cash against Detroit last time by working his way out of trouble. He threw 95 consistently and topped out at 97, fanning six in his five innings of work. He allowed just two runs and did a good job of composing himself and making big pitches when in trouble. It's his second start so the Mets will likely struggle with the hard-throwing lefty as well.
Trachsel has been going good but he left early vs. Yanks last time with a strained groin. They will take no chances with him as depleted as their rotation is already. Trachsel is 4-8 vs. PIT lifetime and he has only lasted longer than six innings twice in 16 starts this season. Mets have won just 7 of 18. This price is ridiculous and I hammered it.
The play: Pittsburgh plus 165 - 1000 to win 1650
Hudson has lost his last four decisions, with a 7.89 ERA in those starts. They've all been at home... Yet they can still make him this price? I realize Mays is no bargain but he sucks against CLE in particular. Reds just got swept in Milwaukee but this price is too good to pass up.
The play: Reds plus 182 - 500 to win 910
Capuano has owned the Chubs this year, not sure whether he'll be an All-Star or not or how it might affect his performance and I hate betting against Maddux at this price so I pass...
Lean to Tampa but Wakefield owns this team at the Trop and I'm not a Shields fan yet.
Don't understand where they get off making Kansas City this kind of dog against Toronto. Folks who back the Jays will say they're getting great value because it's Toronto against Kansas City. Well, I say the wrong team is favored. Redman had won five straight starts and the Royals have now won six straight with him up there. Taubenheim is the replacement for Josh Towers, my human cash cow this year lol... Taubenheim had lost four of his previous five starts until last time, where he pitched well but did not get a decision. Jays just 3-7 in his appearances and have not won consecutive games when he's pitched (beat Philly last time)...
The play: Kansas City plus 135 - 600 to win 810
Oak-town tonight in first of set vs. last-place Anaheim. Not often you get first-place team at home vs. worst and they are the dog. Especially when Escobar has lost nine games. Especially when he's lost seven of eight decisions. Loaiza was good through six innings (scoreless) before running out of gas late against the Snakes last time. Let's try the home doggie here.
The play: Oakland plus 106 - 500 to win 530
Good luck all! Starting on tomorrow's now...
:toast:
Tough to gauge who exactly is focused this weekend and who is not. Don't get caught laying a big price with anyone - that's all I'mma say. You'll see me on far more dogs than even usual this weekend if the prices are out of whack.
Teams playing hard lately - Kansas City (13-7 last 20 comes to mind) as dogs most every time out have been solid moneymakers for a month now. Pittsburgh has shown signs of life. Florida has vaulted themselves into the thick of things for second in the NL East. Minnesota has been scary good, especially at home. And teams like them and Boston shows just how superior the AL is to the NL at this point. They've won the last two All-Star games and anything less than -130 on them in Pittsburgh looks like plain stealing to me. I think it might open a quarter and close between 35 and 40.
On the other hand, the Cubs just plain suck and I swear I think Dusty manages to get fired sometimes. Other fade machines after the break include the Mets (prices will be too high, they play .500 here on in and prolly win the division but would lose you money); Cleveland (until they fire this manager); Arizona (too many holes in the rotation)...
I think Atlanta will make their yearly run in the NL East. I think St. Louis made a nice trade getting another arm, Jeff Weaver, for their rotation. Talent is there and now Dave Duncan gets another reclamation project, his specialty. Houston will make their second-half charge. Wild-card is wide-open so not sure who will be making trades and who will stand pat. Mediocre teams like Reds, all the NL West, Milwaukee, right there in the mix and if it stays that way in the two weeks after the break, will lead to interesting developments at the deadline.
Onto Thursday's mess...
The Mets are ridiculously overpriced tonight. Gorzelanny got me the cash the other day with a fairly impressive performance. He's Pittsburgh's top pitching prospect and got me the cash against Detroit last time by working his way out of trouble. He threw 95 consistently and topped out at 97, fanning six in his five innings of work. He allowed just two runs and did a good job of composing himself and making big pitches when in trouble. It's his second start so the Mets will likely struggle with the hard-throwing lefty as well.
Trachsel has been going good but he left early vs. Yanks last time with a strained groin. They will take no chances with him as depleted as their rotation is already. Trachsel is 4-8 vs. PIT lifetime and he has only lasted longer than six innings twice in 16 starts this season. Mets have won just 7 of 18. This price is ridiculous and I hammered it.
The play: Pittsburgh plus 165 - 1000 to win 1650
Hudson has lost his last four decisions, with a 7.89 ERA in those starts. They've all been at home... Yet they can still make him this price? I realize Mays is no bargain but he sucks against CLE in particular. Reds just got swept in Milwaukee but this price is too good to pass up.
The play: Reds plus 182 - 500 to win 910
Capuano has owned the Chubs this year, not sure whether he'll be an All-Star or not or how it might affect his performance and I hate betting against Maddux at this price so I pass...
Lean to Tampa but Wakefield owns this team at the Trop and I'm not a Shields fan yet.
Don't understand where they get off making Kansas City this kind of dog against Toronto. Folks who back the Jays will say they're getting great value because it's Toronto against Kansas City. Well, I say the wrong team is favored. Redman had won five straight starts and the Royals have now won six straight with him up there. Taubenheim is the replacement for Josh Towers, my human cash cow this year lol... Taubenheim had lost four of his previous five starts until last time, where he pitched well but did not get a decision. Jays just 3-7 in his appearances and have not won consecutive games when he's pitched (beat Philly last time)...
The play: Kansas City plus 135 - 600 to win 810
Oak-town tonight in first of set vs. last-place Anaheim. Not often you get first-place team at home vs. worst and they are the dog. Especially when Escobar has lost nine games. Especially when he's lost seven of eight decisions. Loaiza was good through six innings (scoreless) before running out of gas late against the Snakes last time. Let's try the home doggie here.
The play: Oakland plus 106 - 500 to win 530
Good luck all! Starting on tomorrow's now...
:toast:
