Dog -1.5 & Fav -1.5 FRIDAY July 7th

Tulsa · Jul 7, 2006

Thursday's Results:
Lost half of one unit today.
Florida
Wash
LOST $200

SD +80

Mil +25

Houston +65

SF
LADodgers
LOSE 200

NYY +45

KC +130

Thursday: -.55 units

Method: both teams -1.5
OVERALL: +10.83 units over 55 plays
Rate of Return: 10.83 units/110 units risked = 9.8% ROI

I'll have Friday's plays later on this afternoon. Good luck! tulsa

Tulsa · Jul 7, 2006

<TABLE class=tborder cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=6 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=page><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=bottom><TD style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">goodcall</TD><TD class=smallfont align=right>07-06-2006 11:00 PM</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><HR>YTD:
42-13, +$168.87

Yesterday:
5-1 +$68.67

Picks:
7/7 $40.63 on BAL -1.5@+239
7/7 $59.37 on CLE -1.5@+132

7/7 $40.43 on PIT -1.5@+230
7/7 $59.57 on PHI -1.5@+124

7/7 $63.14 on CHC -1.5@+116
7/7 $36.86 on MIL -1.5@+270

7/7 $68.51 on TOR -1.5@-113
7/7 $31.49 on KC -1.5@+302

7/7 $52.63 on LAA -1.5@+170
7/7 $47.37 on OAK -1.5@+200

7/7 $62.20 on DET -1.5@+120
7/7 $37.80 on SEA -1.5@+262

Great value in the LAA/OAK play...I might actually take it for $$
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

SSI · Jul 7, 2006

well tulsa, the (10.5's) went 1-0 last night for (0.00 units) as the big fav whitesox was the winner..

makes the overall 2006 season record: 129-35

July record: 12-0

so its on a 12-0 run for july..

2 plays tonight (so far) as there are a few 10's out there, that could become plays later today.

Yanks (+1.15)/TB (+2.30)

Minn (+1.70)/Tex (+1.65)

just keeping you posted... take a quick glance at history of 1 run games, when you look at a game.. ill bet SF/LA are notorious for playing one run games..

Tulsa · Jul 7, 2006

Thanks, SSI. That is a good idea and I will pay closer attention to the previous results of the same team matchups.

Thanks for keeping us posted on the 10.5's

129-35 implies: 35 * 200 lost = 7000

7000/129 = $54.26 ==> Average of $155 for the -1.5 run lines must be achieved just for break-even.

Also, though: the game featuring the Chi-Sox had a RL of -1.5 runs for -1.15 or so yesterday at 5dimes so it was an absolute no-play for me. However, I'm not saying that those might not have a place in the system....the reason is that the dogs might win enough to out-weigh the (less than $1 for $1 wagered) return of a heavy favorite on the run-line.

tulsa

FullyEclipsed · Jul 7, 2006

SSI,

With the 129-35 record are the pushes being added to the wins?

Even though ChiSx won the end results didn't gain any money and I don't see any pushes in the record.

I would think that it would be better off adjusting the bet amounts to make sure that you would see a profit if either team won but then again I haven't looked through the past results of these games to see how the dogs have done.

BOL Guys!

SSI · Jul 7, 2006

eclisped, i havent looked thru the money... although i believe it takes about a (+1.55) payback average to breakeven.. on a 129-35 record..

35 losses = 70 units
129 wins x (1.55 payback)=199.95 units won but you must then subtract 129 units from this. which then equals 70.95 units.. almost the same as units lost..

i havent ran the money down and i dont intend too... whether i play this or not, is irrelevant..

i can tell you that july is: 12-0 (+7 units)...

FullyEclipsed · Jul 7, 2006

SSI,

Okay. I was just asking if the pushes were factored in to the 129 wins where the favorites with negative juice won and a push took place to see if the 1.55 was a accurate number to go by for the year.

jimmyk+ · Jul 7, 2006

SSI said:
eclisped, i havent looked thru the money... although i believe it takes about a (+1.55) payback average to breakeven.. on a 129-35 record..

35 losses = 70 units
129 wins x (1.55 payback)=199.95 units won but you must then subtract 129 units from this. which then equals 70.95 units.. almost the same as units lost..

i havent ran the money down and i dont intend too... whether i play this or not, is irrelevant..

i can tell you that july is: 12-0 (+7 units)...

..........interesting math at play here , can't argue w/ the results to date so far either !!! tx guys!!

SSI · Jul 7, 2006

eclisped, i only have the units won/lost for july........... the 129-35 includes all the (10.5's) or higher totals on the R/L for both team, irregardless of the price..

i think, this weekend, ill go back thru and see how many dogs were winners on the alt runline, within the 129 wins.. thats where the payoff comes in.. TB (+2.30) is a good example..

im not going to figure the units won/lost for entire season however, it probably have to be a guess anyway.. R/L's vary..

1.55 is an accurate number.... however i dont know what the average payback has been on the 129 wins..

FullyEclipsed · Jul 7, 2006

SSI said:
eclisped, i only have the units won/lost for july........... the 129-35 includes all the (10.5's) or higher totals on the R/L for both team, irregardless of the price..

i think, this weekend, ill go back thru and see how many dogs were winners on the alt runline, within the 129 wins.. thats where the payoff comes in.. TB (+2.30) is a good example..

im not going to figure the units won/lost for entire season however, it probably have to be a guess anyway.. R/L's vary..

1.55 is an accurate number.... however i dont know what the average payback has been on the 129 wins..

I agree. There is no true way to determine the money in looking through past results unless someone had a data base of numbers for the RL and ARL.

But great work involved so far.

winbet · Jul 7, 2006

SSI said:
eclisped, i havent looked thru the money... although i believe it takes about a (+1.55) payback average to breakeven.. on a 129-35 record..

35 losses = 70 units
129 wins x (1.55 payback)=199.95 units won but you must then subtract 129 units from this. which then equals 70.95 units.. almost the same as units lost..

i havent ran the money down and i dont intend too... whether i play this or not, is irrelevant..

i can tell you that july is: 12-0 (+7 units)...

SSI,
Sorry for not getting back to you about your question. Your Figure of +1.55 only relates to your running total of 129-35. In reality +255 is the break even for 10.5 Run games, that is of course a no vig figure. The break even range is in the order of
Total 6 Runs +117
Total 12 runs +320 No vig Included :drink:

Tulsa · Jul 7, 2006

Friday's Plays

All lines from 5Dimes and both sides -1.5 run line

Fla +120
NYM +220

Stl +165
Hou +160

ChiCubs +115
Mil +240

Bal +235
Cle +120

Min +160
Tex +150

Good luck! tulsa

Snets · Jul 7, 2006

hello guys

tulsa did you know there has been only 5 series so far this year that have had all 1 run games.

4 in the NL - 1 was a 2 game set
1 in interleague
0 in the AL

Martingale?

food for thought

snets

Tulsa · Jul 7, 2006

No, I did not realize that. As Johnny Carson used to say, "I did not know that..."

Thanks, Snets. tulsa

Dog -1.5 & Fav -1.5 FRIDAY July 7th

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