All Wagers at Pinnacle
San Diego –1.06 over WASHINGTON
All Woody Williams did in his last start was come off the DL and pitch a gem in the Padres second game of a double-header against the Giants. All Woody Williams has been doing for the past 14 years is quietly pitch as consistent and efficiently as almost anyone. He doesn’t win a ton of games and his ERA is almost always right around four runs a game but with Williams we know what we’re going to get; six innings of solid ball and the opportunity to win. He’s 3-1 this year with an ERA 3.04 and that works for us. The Padres are playing decent ball with 13 wins in their last 22 games and they’ll face Ramon Ortiz in this one. Ortiz has an ERA of 4.90 at JFK and while he’s pitching far better than we expected the fact remains that he’s an ordinary pitcher playing for an ordinary club and is capable of getting smacked around on any day. Padres have momentum going into the break and have vaulted into first place in the division, thus making this series an important one. Play: San Diego –1.06 (Risking 1.6 units to win 1.5).
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COLORADO/Arizona over 10 +1.12
Miguel Batista has been flirting with disaster on more than a few occasions and this is not the venue to be doing that in. He’s allowed 129 hits in 105 innings and his eight wins against just five losses is extremely flattering. Batista will usually allow in the neighborhood of six runs a game, however, a couple of recent good outings has his ERA closer to five. Don’t be fooled by his recent run of moderate success. He shut out the leagues worst offense, the A’s in is last start, however, prior to that one he allowed 22 runs in 22 innings over a four game stretch. Byung Hyun Kim has had zero success against the D-Backs and overall he’s inevitably starting to labor. He was rocked in Seattle in his last start and as his innings begin to accumulate his ability begins to deteriorate. Three of his last six starts have been absolutely brutal and those came against Washington, Florida and Seattle, not exactly the cream of the crop. Coors Field is the perfect setting to get us to the cashier’s window. Play: Over 10 +1.12 (Risking 1.5 units).
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NY Yankees over 6 +1.06 (Team Total)
We would play on the Yanks laying 1½ runs but with Jamie Wright going and the Yanks pen in trouble, the Devil Rays could conceivably go off for a bunch. Instead, with Jae Seo going for the D-Rays, we’ll step in hard with a team total play on the Yanks to go over six. They’ll be no sweating this one out, as we expect the Yanks to hit this total by the third or fourth inning. Jae Sao is one of the biggest stiffs in the business and the Dodgers somehow traded him for Mark Hendrickson in what was the biggest steal of the year. Sao is brutally awful and his 5.59 ERA is so much worse than it appears because he pitched in Los Angeles at Chavez Ravine, where many ordinary pitchers have looked good. However, Sao is not even close to being ordinary and the Yanks will feast off this guy on their worst day. Sao has nothing left, his velocity is a joke, his stuff or lack thereof is a bigger joke and if the Yanks don’t score at least seven in this one we’ll be completely and utterly shocked. Play: Yanks over 6 +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
CLEVELAND/Baltimore under 9 +1.01<o></o>
The first thing to note here is that the Orioles are 1-14 on the road against southpaws and C.C. Sabathia is one of the best in the business. His numbers aren’t as good this year and he has labored in some starts but he’s also been dominating at times too. His last two starts against St. Louis and Cincinnati were especially encouraging and if he pitches like he did in those two it’ll be lights out for the Birds. Sabathia threw an eight inning, five-hitter against the Cardinals and followed that up with six strong innings against the Reds. Sabathia can pitch, we all know that and the offense he’ll see face here is average at best and weak against lefties. Kris Benson can also pitch and comes in with nine wins against six losses. His ERA is 4.35, which is respectable, however, his ERA in June, in five starts was 3.23 and that’s impressive. In June, Benson was solid against the Blue Jays twice, the Mets, the Marlins and the Phillies. The Indians offense is as inconsistent as any in the league and after a series with the Yanks and the All-Star break on deck, we may find them, and the Orioles too, after a long series with the champs, both a little lethargic this whole weekend. Play: Under 9 +1.01 (Risking 1.5 units).
San Diego –1.06 over WASHINGTON
All Woody Williams did in his last start was come off the DL and pitch a gem in the Padres second game of a double-header against the Giants. All Woody Williams has been doing for the past 14 years is quietly pitch as consistent and efficiently as almost anyone. He doesn’t win a ton of games and his ERA is almost always right around four runs a game but with Williams we know what we’re going to get; six innings of solid ball and the opportunity to win. He’s 3-1 this year with an ERA 3.04 and that works for us. The Padres are playing decent ball with 13 wins in their last 22 games and they’ll face Ramon Ortiz in this one. Ortiz has an ERA of 4.90 at JFK and while he’s pitching far better than we expected the fact remains that he’s an ordinary pitcher playing for an ordinary club and is capable of getting smacked around on any day. Padres have momentum going into the break and have vaulted into first place in the division, thus making this series an important one. Play: San Diego –1.06 (Risking 1.6 units to win 1.5).
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fficeffice" /><o></o>COLORADO/Arizona over 10 +1.12
Miguel Batista has been flirting with disaster on more than a few occasions and this is not the venue to be doing that in. He’s allowed 129 hits in 105 innings and his eight wins against just five losses is extremely flattering. Batista will usually allow in the neighborhood of six runs a game, however, a couple of recent good outings has his ERA closer to five. Don’t be fooled by his recent run of moderate success. He shut out the leagues worst offense, the A’s in is last start, however, prior to that one he allowed 22 runs in 22 innings over a four game stretch. Byung Hyun Kim has had zero success against the D-Backs and overall he’s inevitably starting to labor. He was rocked in Seattle in his last start and as his innings begin to accumulate his ability begins to deteriorate. Three of his last six starts have been absolutely brutal and those came against Washington, Florida and Seattle, not exactly the cream of the crop. Coors Field is the perfect setting to get us to the cashier’s window. Play: Over 10 +1.12 (Risking 1.5 units).
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></o>NY Yankees over 6 +1.06 (Team Total)
We would play on the Yanks laying 1½ runs but with Jamie Wright going and the Yanks pen in trouble, the Devil Rays could conceivably go off for a bunch. Instead, with Jae Seo going for the D-Rays, we’ll step in hard with a team total play on the Yanks to go over six. They’ll be no sweating this one out, as we expect the Yanks to hit this total by the third or fourth inning. Jae Sao is one of the biggest stiffs in the business and the Dodgers somehow traded him for Mark Hendrickson in what was the biggest steal of the year. Sao is brutally awful and his 5.59 ERA is so much worse than it appears because he pitched in Los Angeles at Chavez Ravine, where many ordinary pitchers have looked good. However, Sao is not even close to being ordinary and the Yanks will feast off this guy on their worst day. Sao has nothing left, his velocity is a joke, his stuff or lack thereof is a bigger joke and if the Yanks don’t score at least seven in this one we’ll be completely and utterly shocked. Play: Yanks over 6 +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
CLEVELAND/Baltimore under 9 +1.01<o
></o>The first thing to note here is that the Orioles are 1-14 on the road against southpaws and C.C. Sabathia is one of the best in the business. His numbers aren’t as good this year and he has labored in some starts but he’s also been dominating at times too. His last two starts against St. Louis and Cincinnati were especially encouraging and if he pitches like he did in those two it’ll be lights out for the Birds. Sabathia threw an eight inning, five-hitter against the Cardinals and followed that up with six strong innings against the Reds. Sabathia can pitch, we all know that and the offense he’ll see face here is average at best and weak against lefties. Kris Benson can also pitch and comes in with nine wins against six losses. His ERA is 4.35, which is respectable, however, his ERA in June, in five starts was 3.23 and that’s impressive. In June, Benson was solid against the Blue Jays twice, the Mets, the Marlins and the Phillies. The Indians offense is as inconsistent as any in the league and after a series with the Yanks and the All-Star break on deck, we may find them, and the Orioles too, after a long series with the champs, both a little lethargic this whole weekend. Play: Under 9 +1.01 (Risking 1.5 units).
