Dog -1.5 & Fav -1.5 SATURDAY July 8th

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Tulsa...hope you don't mind me starting this...thought I'd save you the trouble of finding my records
 

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YTD:
47-14, +248.51

Yesterday:
5-1, +79.64

Picks:
7/8 $45.91 on STL -1.5@+204
7/8 $54.09 on HOU -1.5@+158

7/8 $41.39 on PIT -1.5@+230
7/8 $58.61 on PHI -1.5@+133

7/8 $60.11 on SD -1.5@+125
7/8 $39.89 on WSH -1.5@+239

7/8 $47.77 on CIN -1.5@+193
7/8 $52.23 on ATL -1.5@+168

7/8 $39.51 on CHC -1.5@+249
7/8 $60.49 on MIL -1.5@+128

7/8 $62.37 on TOR -1.5@+110
7/8 $37.63 on KC -1.5@+248

7/8 $67.36 on MIN -1.5@-113
7/8 $32.64 on TEX -1.5@+289

7/8 $58.13 on LAA -1.5@+137
7/8 $41.87 on OAK -1.5@+229

stl/hou and cin/atl are the two best
laa/oak cashed nicely yesterday :) still pondering playing another for $$
 

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goodcall, no problem. By the way, there has to be some better way to present your W/L on this, as 47-14 doesn't give the type of information you want to convey, right? You do it how you like but there might be a better way that you still like...

Good luck today. tulsa
 

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Friday's Results:
+1.70 units Friday.


Fla +20

Stl +65

ChiCubs +15

Cle +20

Tex +50

Friday: +1.70 units

Method: both teams -1.5
OVERALL: +12.53 units over 60 plays
Rate of Return: 12.53 units/120 units risked = 10.4% ROI


I'll have Saturday's plays later on this morning. Good luck! tulsa
<!-- / message -->
 

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I'd like to share my record with this in another way, if I may, to show how well it is going so far. It is not entirely an accurate way to view this, but it does go a long way toward putting this into terms we are used to:

There have been 60 plays
Assume we are playing these plays at 10% vigorish
The method is up 12.53 units so far over the 60 plays

What record and winning percentage would I have to have to be up 12.53 units over 60 plays at 10% vigorish?

37.4 wins and 22.6 losses give 12.53 units at 10% vig



37-23 gives a 62% win percentage.

I'm very pleased so far.

tulsa
 

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goodcall/Tulsa ?

Is it a good thing, bad thing, or just doesn't matter that:
DET/SEA has only 1 one run game in their last 10 matchups and only 3 in the last 20.
While ST.L/HST has 5 one run games in last 10 and 9 in last 20 matchups.
FYI: BALT/CLV = 1 L10. 3L20
CIN/ATL = 1 L10. 4 L20.
FL/NYM = 4 L10. 7 L20.
ETC.
.
 

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To tell you the truth, I have no idea if it matters. I haven't yet gone back to see if some teams are consistently more prone to 1-run games than others.

Nice info though, thanks.
 

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Tulsa - I agree that the record as I have it is meaningless, but I'm not really sure how else to do it. Your way is interesting - it does convey your amazing record so it's easier to understand. I'm thinking about just keeping track of units and number of plays, and maybe noting average return per "pair" of plays...possibly ROI. I'll try to figure out a new system by tonight.
 

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sumwon, I have to say that I am with goodcall on this. I don't know.

Also, no doubt that your "BALT/CLV, CIN/ATL, FL/NYM" information is very interesting and pertinent. Thanks.

You know, I cannot imagine that it doesn't matter. It must matter. I don't know how much. Take a 'rolling' last twenty final score spread as a factor? Take last 5 (however many are relevant?) meetings between the two teams and their final score spreads as a factor?

I have to believe it matters. I just haven't taken the time to go back and do it...

tulsa
 

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I have looked at one run teams.....beware of the

Mets
A's - especially in divisonal games with LAA & Texas
Clevland & CWS - in their divisions
San Fransico
Colorado - Early on not, so much lately except for last night:realtongu



GL today guys


snets
 

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Snets said:
I have looked at one run teams.....beware of the

Mets
A's - especially in divisonal games with LAA & Texas
Clevland & CWS - in their divisions
San Fransico

snets

Yeah, look at sumwon's post and the Fla/NYMets: 4 L10. 7 L20.
If that trend continues then what a bankroll killer matchup!!

tulsa
 

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Today

Atlanta<>Cincy although we have two good pitchers we have terrible bullpens and potential offense. The lines here fit nice.

Atlanta -1.5 +158 100 to win 158
Cinci -1.5 +185 100 to win 185

Next Game 2 in Mets double header, Often Double header games are blowouts and any Mets game has the potential for a big win. Game 2 although Game 1 has the same potential.

Mets -1.5 +145 100 to win 145
Florida -1.5 +185 100 to win 185

Next in Tampa we have Kazmir who could win big or bowout to the big Yanks bats. Juicy lines too.

NYY-1.5 +150 100 to win 150
Tampa -1.5 +180 100 to win 180

Anyway I choose these 3 games today

One theory is to pick games with a total of 10.5 or over and your chances are better but I am picking games with +140 or better on each side and my own choices where I think one team wins by 2. Good Luck. I know it seems crazy but I have seen boneheads winning with this and some terrible choices in games too. Note at Pinny you could get better lines here but I aint messing with my small balance there on this till next year.

Brought to you by Dubpoet.
 

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Welcome aboard!!

Dubpoet said:
...I know it seems crazy but I have seen boneheads winning with this and some terrible choices in games too...

Thanks! lol

Good luck today, dub. tulsa
 

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Good Luck with all your different angles guys! I've been following to see if your angles works as well as mine has. There is definately money to be made, it's just finding the right angle. :)

Best of Luck
 

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Tulsa said:
Yeah, look at sumwon's post and the Fla/NYMets: 4 L10. 7 L20.
If that trend continues then what a bankroll killer matchup!!

tulsa

Perhaps we should take the +1.5 on both sides??
 

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goodcall, I'm just staying away from those... I wouldn't do it. tulsa
 

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Just a thought for discussion.

But if that continues to win 7 times out of 20, it's certainly worth it.
 

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I'm open to ideas.

The risk is too great for a loss. Those three times it loses out of ten means that it will cost well over 6 units and probably over eight units through the ten games. AND when it wins you win less than a unit as the other side is a negative ML. If it were to pay as a method, you would have to have it be 9 or 10 games end with a 1 run final out of ten. It won't work. tulsa
 

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