Home Run Derby

I want to hear what your guys' opinions are on my 1st round o/u's for the Home-run derby. tell me which ones are too high/too low...i will keep a tally of your picks (so make them clear).


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1st Round​

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Ortiz​

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7.5​

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Howard​

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7​

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Berkman​

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6.5​

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Cabrera​

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6​

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Tejada​

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6​

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Wright​

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5.5​

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Glaus​

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5​

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Dye​

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4.5​

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is this out of place? should i post stuff like this at drphil.com??? LOL

Berkman OVER.

bznofx19 said:

is this out of place? should i post stuff like this at drphil.com??? LOL

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Yes no one cares.Try in the WNBA forum.

IBETHUGE said:

Yes no one cares.Try in the WNBA forum.

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I dont need you to "care"...I want to fine tune my lines before I give them to my friends because we will use them amongst ourselves for the Derby...so I would just like some opinions.

...and I actually do put a lot of time and effort with my totals projections for the WNBA and post my plays in the WNBA forum (where I have been hitting at 65% ).

wright under.

pwn3dyo said:

wright under.

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did you know he is a -147 favortite over Glaus?!?

I think Wright has more of a compact efficient swing and when he hits a homerun it is more of an "accident" compared to Glaus' natural "power swing."

now that everyone has no choice but to cap this for today, lets hear your opinions....

I actually like Glaus to win it all, but it will be fun to watch.

pwn3dyo said:

I actually like Glaus to win it all, but it will be fun to watch.

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HE WAS MY PICK ALSO NOT A BAD PRICE EITHER @ + 1200. I AM ALSO THINKING ABOUT PUTTING A LITTLE ON HOWARD. GLTA THE DUDE >)~


GOEN TO DA BASH.arty:

pwn3dyo said:

I actually like Glaus to win it all, but it will be fun to watch.

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I agree completley...Glaus is a VERY live dog i my opinioin, the guy hit 47 and 41 home runs in back to back years before being ravished by injuries...last year he came back in a smashing fashion blasting 37 HR's and now htis year, playing on a completley new surface in a foreign country the man is on pace to hit 43 Home Runs and 113 RBI's while only hitting .241...these stats tell me one thing, when Glaus does hit, he hits bombs...he is not like Wright and Tejada, who are RBI machines who can hit line drives and nail the gaps...like someone else mentioned in this thread, Wright is more of a compact swing hitter, much like Tejada who play a much more effective type of baseball than Glaus, getting clutch hits in the right situations ....dont get me Wrong, Tejada has shown he can hit BOMBS in the Derby like he did a couple years ago, but his bread and butter is RBI's based on his single and extra base hits with men on the bases...23% of Glaus's hits this year have been for Home Runs, that is an alarming rate...I would not be suprised to see him slam 12 in the first round alone...the guy lives and dies on swinging for the fences, and that is his trade...to me it is quite astonishing that a .241 hitter is on pace for 113 RBI's...it dictates clearly that Glaus is your natural "Home Run or get out" hitter and with th fact that he will only be getting pitches he likes tomm it will def allow him to do what he does best, hit home runs...I played a tad over half a unt on him, with about the same on David Wright (although I mentioned he is more of a gap hitter, he is one of thehottest home run hitters in the league right now and with the weak pitching of the Home Run Derby I dont see any reason for his streak not to continue....I also played one unit on Howard to cover my bets...Howard is a monster, and being that the derby is being played in a lefty hitters ballpark I think he has a big advantage to take the HR derby crown, hence him being only a +380 odd while I got Wright @ +650 and Glaus at a ridiculous (IMO, maybe I have not read between the lines and Glaus is not good at a lefty-favored ballpark) +1100...if either of the 3 win, I am guarenteed a big pay day...I risked a total of 2 units...if Howard wins, i win a few bucks over 2.2 units...If Glaus take the cake I win 5 units and some change, and if Wright continues his superstar year campaign and doesnt get the Jason Bay like jitters of last year, I am till in the running to make 2.2 units ...so basically I am risking 2 units to at least double my total risk and have a lil tad under 40% of winning ...my only fear is Ortiz, I really think the one of the 3 I took takes the cake unless Ortiz continues his moster year....however, ive noticed the hottest home run hitter in the league has tended to do poorly in the derby as he has become so accustomed to hitting real big league pitching, that when it turns around and he is getting the easy pitches, they tend to take to complicated of cuts and not hit their rhytym...gl

Gimme Dye over 4.5 in the 1st round for the max. Thanks.

:money:

how did you come up with those lines anyways.

Future Wager 07/08/06 11:11 ET
500.00/1500.00 Result: Pending
2006 MLB All Star - CENTURY 21 Home Run Derby (All Bets Action)
David Ortiz (Red Sox) 07/10/06 (20:00 ET)
3-1

bznofx19 said:

did you know he is a -147 favortite over Glaus?!?

I think Wright has more of a compact efficient swing and when he hits a homerun it is more of an "accident" compared to Glaus' natural "power swing."

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that matchup is now a pickem'...talk about line movement! there was some benefit to reading this post!

I bust my ASS off making my lines/plays and i just ask for an opinions everyonce in awhile... but i have to pry them out....so i would still like some 'opinions' on my lines...it wont hurt, i swear!

thanks

I agree Dye should be at 5 or 5.5

bznofx19, considering you have got some feed back, what are your final plays?

bdubs said:

bznofx19, considering you have got some feed back, what are your final plays?

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i am getting opinions for my lines...i already made my play (Glaus +131 over Wright).

i'm not going to wager on anything else (will be oddsmaker for my friends)

I feel Howard will win it...but the oddsmakers arent stupid and set a pretty good line at +460.

i HOPE he gets 2 in the 1st round and ducks out..i have him on my fantasy team (for BIG $ w/ some friends) and I dont want his swing to get messed up.

I also feel any bet AGAINST Dye is good because he was in that 19 inning game yesterday and probably wont perform that well...it may effect Ortiz in the later rounds but he wasn't in the field in that game yesterday.

bznofx19 said:

I also feel any bet AGAINST Dye is good because he was in that 19 inning game yesterday and probably wont perform that well...it may effect Ortiz in the later rounds but he wasn't in the field in that game yesterday.

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I was thinking the same thing, that's why I like Glaus vs Dye. According to your projections Glaus vs Dye has more value that Glaus vs Wright....???

IMO, OVER on all... Howard to win it all!!!

Good luck to us all!!!!