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Rx. Senior
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Everyone agrees that recent years has seen teams become closer talent wise and resulted in tighter games. However I cannot remember seeing too many posts addressing how this all affects the Betting. During a season I log the betting on Betfair and review them about this time of Year and basically have a best price and average price. Because of Moneyline differences, the best can be possibly a bit ambiguous but the average is a fair assessment. Unsurprisingly these figures mirror the standard Books except three areas, the spreads of 3,6 and 7. The bog standard Books price for 3 of -155, 6 of -270 and 7 of -330 was given as -170, -285 and -345, so I decided to look back the last Three years results in the NFL. Sure enough the historical value for 3 -137 had risen to -170, -173 in one year. 6 was historically -229, it has gone -240 and -275 the last Two years and even odder, 7 has gone from a historical -265 to -290, -340, -350 in consecutive Years. As it appears the Books havent changed their policy, it would assume some value in the Moneylines or maybe a theoretical extra point?

during the World Cup I noticed a lot of Technical stuff like images showing individual passing plays and thought maybe the NFL coaches are beginning to take on board all the sideline Guru's and Math geeks. Not long ago a Coach of a Dog had to take plenty chances in a Game to win where now parity dictates a more cautious approach. Likewise Coaches always felt they had to get that Touchdown whereas now they are being told to play the Percentages, take the Three Points, which may answer why 6 is becoming more prevailent.

Anyhow, thats my pennysworth. Any comments would be appreciated, even if its just to say I'm talking Bollocks.:103631605
 

Rx Post Doc
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Help me out here, winbet....what do you mean by theoretical extra point? Do you mean buying a 1/2 point or a point?

I believe you are DEAD on. I didn't ever reason out why but I realize that you are correct in your assertions...

I began playing mostly ML's a year or so ago in the NFL. NCAA Football...no...still use spreads mostly. But for the NFL, I began playing ML's both dogs and favorites as my return had gone down over the last few years due to the tight nature of the games I was on.

I hadn't even thought about why or even realized that I switched over to the 'wild side' over time! I now will take the ML on either favorite or dogs and sometimes do a (at most) two-team parlay on the ML. I do realize that parlays do not give any advantage to a player regarding price or return, but I try to pick my spots and it allows me to take heavier favorites and earn $ on them when I would not touch their ML or their spread as a stand alone play.

For the NFL, I do that much more often than playing spreads, but I haven't totally stopped using the spread.

Thanks winbet. tulsa
 

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Tulsa wouldnt playing the money line on dogs be a bit more risky, rather than take the points?
 

Rx Post Doc
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Well, yes, more risky as far as W/L record, but many times the favorite is inflated more than they should be and there is a lot of value in taking the dog ML. This 'fact' falls right in line with what winbet is saying.

I will admit that not for mathematical reasons but more for psychological peace of mind, I play many more favorites ML than dogs and use the + points for the dogs often. I would rather increase my odds of a W than increase my value for dollar. We all have to realize that there are mathematically optimum strategies for winning at sports wagering but they may not be conducive to peace of mind!! It is for a real and healthy economic reason that I sometimes forgoe some return on my dollar wagered for a bit more comfort of mind. Also, to go aside of this discussion for a moment...that act of taking + points when maybe my optimum choice would be to take the dog ML may actually pay me more in the end. How is that? Well, there is more than mathematics involved in our work here. We, as organic globs of chemicals, are involved in our work here. I have to have a good frame of mind to do this and enjoy it...of course! A few more wins under my belt in a day spurs me on to a better set of evening choices and even to a better set of choices the next day, which, for me, is important. I may actually be more benefited by not always using exactly optimal wagering/money strategy. That exact optimal strategy may cause me duress and change my other positive behaviors. Now...that being said, we cannot be money management morons or avoid quality wagering theory. I am only talking about being just a little off optimal behavior and choosing fewer cents return on my dollar wagered buying me a little more peace of mind.

I do that for my peace of mind and the reality of the numbers is a little to my left. However, it may allow me to be in the hunt longer each day and allow me to find more winners than I otherwise would.

Here is a stupid analogy but it really is right along the line. In fact, pure mathematics tells me that I could save the most money by turning off my AC and learning to deal with the heat...saving quite a bit of money each month. In terms of dollars only, my optimum decision would be to turn off the air conditioner and allow my home to heat up to 98 degrees F each day. But that is not the whole story, is it? I would be miserable and unable to do the things that I would like to do very efficiently causing me to lose dollars on my other activities. So, I find a happy, but not mathematically optimal solution (not optimal given that simple problem of considering only what is the best way to save money on my AC usage) by setting my thermostat for 79 degrees and being slightly uncomfortable yet still able to do my work (I work from home.)

tulsa
 

Rx Post Doc
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winbet! Tell me I am not on your 'ignore' list!! lol

good luck. tulsa
 

CURATOR / MEMBER EMERITUS
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I agree about the value of ML.. faves bet. 4-9½ points esp...added to parlays. It adds significant profit & opens up so many cheap hedge middle options...

EDIT: oops Tulsa, almost "ignored' mentioining you.
 

CURATOR / MEMBER EMERITUS
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WB it does seem like anyone can win, esp. at the lower spreads...that's why i've forsaken straight up betting & unprotected parlaying for parlaying/teasing with reverse hedge-middling-- a lot of it wih 2nd halves hooked to later legs.
 

Rx. Senior
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Tulsa,
Of course I'm not ignoring you. :103631605 The figures I gave are inconsequential in that as usual, anyone can read into them what they want. The point is it would appear that the numbers 3,6 and 7 might carry more weight nowadays than we think. There are many who say the spread doesnt matter as long as you pick the winner but if scores are becoming tighter then the spread will play an increasing role. Only 3 games in Week 1 are over 4.5 with most hovering around the 3 so giving more consideration than normal may be an advantage, buying 1/2 points may well be better value than previous.

X,
My contract as a Royal Puteroner forbids me to discuss any of their dealings. :103631605
 

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