Everyone agrees that recent years has seen teams become closer talent wise and resulted in tighter games. However I cannot remember seeing too many posts addressing how this all affects the Betting. During a season I log the betting on Betfair and review them about this time of Year and basically have a best price and average price. Because of Moneyline differences, the best can be possibly a bit ambiguous but the average is a fair assessment. Unsurprisingly these figures mirror the standard Books except three areas, the spreads of 3,6 and 7. The bog standard Books price for 3 of -155, 6 of -270 and 7 of -330 was given as -170, -285 and -345, so I decided to look back the last Three years results in the NFL. Sure enough the historical value for 3 -137 had risen to -170, -173 in one year. 6 was historically -229, it has gone -240 and -275 the last Two years and even odder, 7 has gone from a historical -265 to -290, -340, -350 in consecutive Years. As it appears the Books havent changed their policy, it would assume some value in the Moneylines or maybe a theoretical extra point?
during the World Cup I noticed a lot of Technical stuff like images showing individual passing plays and thought maybe the NFL coaches are beginning to take on board all the sideline Guru's and Math geeks. Not long ago a Coach of a Dog had to take plenty chances in a Game to win where now parity dictates a more cautious approach. Likewise Coaches always felt they had to get that Touchdown whereas now they are being told to play the Percentages, take the Three Points, which may answer why 6 is becoming more prevailent.
Anyhow, thats my pennysworth. Any comments would be appreciated, even if its just to say I'm talking Bollocks.
during the World Cup I noticed a lot of Technical stuff like images showing individual passing plays and thought maybe the NFL coaches are beginning to take on board all the sideline Guru's and Math geeks. Not long ago a Coach of a Dog had to take plenty chances in a Game to win where now parity dictates a more cautious approach. Likewise Coaches always felt they had to get that Touchdown whereas now they are being told to play the Percentages, take the Three Points, which may answer why 6 is becoming more prevailent.
Anyhow, thats my pennysworth. Any comments would be appreciated, even if its just to say I'm talking Bollocks.