Dog -1.5 & Fav -1.5 SUNDAY July 9th

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Haven't worked on a better system to show profit yet, so I'll just stick with this one for now:

YTD
54-14, +$393.90

Yesterday
7-1, +$145.39

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<TABLE style="WIDTH: 145pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=193 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 145pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 7058" width=193><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 145pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=193 height=17>7/9 $39.96 on BAL -1.5@+235</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>7/9 $60.04 on CLE -1.5@+123</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17 x:str=""></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>7/9 $49.73 on SD -1.5@+181</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>7/9 $50.27 on WSH -1.5@+178</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17 x:str=""></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>7/9 $40.07 on FLA -1.5@+247</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>7/9 $59.93 on NYM -1.5@+132</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17 x:str=""></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>7/9 $70.98 on MIN -1.5@-122</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>7/9 $29.02 on TEX -1.5@+345</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17 x:str=""></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>7/9 $71.08 on TOR -1.5@-132</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>7/9 $28.92 on KC -1.5@+332</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17 x:str=""></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>7/9 $50.27 on LAA -1.5@+178</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>7/9 $49.73 on OAK -1.5@+181</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17 x:str=""></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>7/9 $57.25 on DET -1.5@+139</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>7/9 $42.75 on SEA -1.5@+220</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17 x:str=""></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>7/9 $58.51 on SF -1.5@+134</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>7/9 $41.49 on LAD -1.5@+230</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17 x:str=""></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>7/9 $60.00 on STL -1.5@+130</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>7/9 $40.00 on HOU -1.5 @+245


</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>best value in LAA/OAK and SD/WSH...near playing value

I guess another way to express the results thus far would be: For every $100 wagered, $106.676 is returned (through 69 plays). Does that mean it's a 6.7% ROI? I'm not sure what that means, but it sounds about right. Or is ROI Total amount bet + amount profit all divided by amount bet? That would give me a 1.1% ROI...
 

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ROI (return on investment) is basically a percentage found by taking the $ returned to you as winning $ divided by total amount of $ risked....

If over a period of time I wager a total of ten dollars over several wagers and at last count end up with a net +$2 then my ROI to date is $2/$10 = 20%

Good luck.

tulsa
 

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goodcall, have you looked been keeping records on your results if you had put 1 unit ($50) on each team rather than putting a portion on each team?
 

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I am taking the day off and just playing normal after the Arizona Colorado fiasco
 

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Saturday's Results:
-3.00 units Saturday

Game #2
NYM 45

Bal 50

Tor 5

Min 0

StL
Hou
Lose 200

Ariz
Col
Lose 200

Saturday: -3 units

Method: both teams -1.5 Runs
OVERALL: +9.53 units over 66 plays
Rate of Return: 9.53 units/132 units risked = 7.2% ROI


Not a good day for me. I have got to listen to people and pay more heed. SSI and others have mentioned over and over that, somehow, for some ungodly reason, Colorado freaking does this a LOT!! I still go, ehhh....I'll try it. Well! -3 units later....


I'll have Sunday's plays later on. Good luck! tulsa
 

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I really like the way you found the other way to post your record Tulsa (I think). I'm definately going to start using this on my weekly updates at my other forum. Right now it is an unreal 75.52% normal system!

Good Luck Today Everyone!
 

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Thanks Tulsa for the description - it looks like the actual ROI is 5.7% so far (393.90/6900).

Acez - If I put 50$ on each side instead of playing to guarantee the same profit no matter who wins, after the same 69 plays, the result would be +$804.75, 11.7% ROI. Hmmmm....

I guess the underdogs won often enough in these games to make more of a profit.
 

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brandonhop33 said:
I really like the way you found the other way to post your record Tulsa (I think). I'm definately going to start using this on my weekly updates at my other forum. Right now it is an unreal 75.52% normal system!

Good Luck Today Everyone!

Brandon, I like that way as well...if you are speaking of the conversion to win percentage as if a normal set of games.... The higher the vig you assume, the better your win% must be, of course.

Also, the only problem with this method of showing the record in terms that we are used to seeing and understand better is that this system is risking a little over 80% more units to achieve the W/L record you are showing once you convert. Do you know what I mean?

I had used this to show I was 37-23 and 62% at 60 plays if we assume a 10% vigorish and normal plays to which we are accustomed. That is pretty accurate except that my 60 plays risked two units per play for 120 units risked in actuality.....while at 10% vigorish my hypothetical conversion risked 66 units total!! That is a big enough deal that I believe if you consistently use this 'hypethetical' to describe your results then you should note it....

Good luck, Brandon. tulsa
 

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goodcall said:
I guess the underdogs won often enough in these games to make more of a profit.

goodcall!! I was wondering when I should tell you what I thought but I was going to make sure of my own operation functioning before I told someone else how they should keep their house!

THE KEY to this really working are the surprise dog wins each day... No doubt in my mind. I'm glad you did a comparison on that!!! WOW! I KNEW the key was the extra dollars from the dog wins but I didn't know it was as much a difference as your comparison just showed!!!

Good luck and thanks for working this out with me and some of the others! tulsa
 

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Tulsa - I like your thinking :)

I looked at this some more, and it turns out that if I only play the dog side, at $100, I am up $2229, for an amazing ROI of 32.3%. I guess that's the reason putting $50 on each side went up so much. This has to be a fluke, right??

If not, this is no longer a -1.5 both sides discussion, for me anyway lol
 

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So if you wanted to play them this way, today's plays would be:

Bal -1.5 +235
SD -1.5 +181
Fla -1.5 +247
Tex -1.5 +345
KC -1.5 +332
Oak -1.5 +181
Sea -1.5 +220
LAD -1-.5 +230
Hou -1.5 +245
 

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suddenly this looks alot like what i was doing at the start of the year, taking the road teams on the (-1.5) line........ maybe should have taken the dogs only.. 10.5's (1-1) on friday (-1.40 units) then no plays on saturday..

1 play only today, yanks/tb

i like the idea of the dogs on the ARL, payoff is huge..
 

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I'm going to take a break today from making any plays. Good luck. tulsa
 

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Tulsa said:
Brandon, I like that way as well...if you are speaking of the conversion to win percentage as if a normal set of games.... The higher the vig you assume, the better your win% must be, of course.

Also, the only problem with this method of showing the record in terms that we are used to seeing and understand better is that this system is risking a little over 80% more units to achieve the W/L record you are showing once you convert. Do you know what I mean?

I had used this to show I was 37-23 and 62% at 60 plays if we assume a 10% vigorish and normal plays to which we are accustomed. That is pretty accurate except that my 60 plays risked two units per play for 120 units risked in actuality.....while at 10% vigorish my hypothetical conversion risked 66 units total!! That is a big enough deal that I believe if you consistently use this 'hypethetical' to describe your results then you should note it....

Good luck, Brandon. tulsa





Yes I know what you mean as far as having to bet much more to get the same amount of units. Thus means the ROI will go down. My ROI is currently at 14.1%, which I believe is very good for a system of this sort.

My record is currently 118-25. I think I'm doing the math right when I say that if this were a normal system, with the WIN % of 75.52%, being up the units we are and how many units we've wagered, the ROI would be 48.14% (sorry about the run-on sentence). So obviously you are right when you say it takes more units wagered to do it the way we are, but if we're winning we're winning!
:toast:

Thanks for the Good Luck wishes, and I wish the same to you!
 

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One-run games

I am tracking todays picks to see what the validity of -1.5 on both sides means and I see that the record is 2 wins and 8 losses so far with 4 games to go. I am assuming that todays win-loss ratio will be a -2 if the next 4 games win.
 

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Well, what a great day for me to take a break! Sheesh, the one run games are everywhere today. tulsa
 

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goodcall said:
Dogs are 26-43 on the ARL, at an average winning price of +251.1

good call...are you saying that this is a the win loss record of ARL in which games avg +180? if so is +180 important anymore in finding which games to play?
 

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A bad day today - way too many 1-run games.

Using the system I've been tracking for the past couple weeks, today's results are 4-5, -$369.25. Betting only the dog's -1.5 on these games however gives us 2-7, for only a $125 loss. I'm starting to like this underdog thing more than I thought.

The Stl/Hou game isn't quite over yet, but I'm assuming it's a loss in the above figures.
 

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Ship, that's the w/l record of all the games I normally would've played: not necessarily at least +180, but around that. Remember, if the game isn't a "pick" game, the +180 qualifier drops a little.

I don't know if 180 is still an important number - all I know is what I've tracked - that in the last week and a half, putting all the money on the dog's ARL would create the most profit in the games I tracked.

Thanks to acez29 for helping to point that out. :)
 

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