Lets get a little discussion going on. . Why is the Cards line so low?

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perception is everything and if you think -139 or -140 is low than your perception of low is a lot different than mine.

You would have to hit at about a 64% clip to show a small profit betting teams at this price for an entire season and when you consider that it's rare for any team to play at a .640 clip, it's not so low at all.

Incidentally, Det and Chic (barely) are the only two teams playing above .640.

There is only one way to play baseball and that's to play dogs or lay off the game and until you do that you will not show a profit in this sport.

Yeah, St. Louis can win but the price is not low at all.
 

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Well said Sherwood, agree this line is not low and is probally heading close to -150 by game time.
 

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Sherwood, no need to speak to me as if I am some novice in betting baseball. I understand what the line means, and what type of clip you would need to win at in order to show profit. Not sure what caused you to go into your little rant about how to win at baseball with me, but thanks for that. I do fine capping baseball.
 

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Sorry Kruser, didn't mean to offend at all. I was just merely pointing out that my perception of low in this case is different than yours. I know your not a novice and I always read your posts. I'm just saying that I don't think the line is low at all and you asked the question.

Good luck if you take the Cardinals, or the Astros for that matter.
 

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Sherwood, didn't mean to sound like a dick in my previous post. After I re-read it, it definitely came off that way. I respect your write-ups and plays as much as anyone on the site.

I think you misunderstood what I meant by low. In my opinion this line is LOWER then it should be with the Cardinals lineup healthy, An Allstar pitcher going against a very offensively challenged Astro Team.
 

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sherwood said:
There is only one way to play baseball and that's to play dogs or lay off the game and until you do that you will not show a profit in this sport.

sherwood, I appreciate your posts and analyses of the games. However, I truly have to say that the quote above is utterly and wholly incorrect! There are lots of ways to skin the baseball cat, and I'm not saying that playing dogs won't work, because I know it does. It may even be 'better' than other ways.

BUT I have been succeeding at this and I rarely play the dog and rarely use the run line to make a dog.
tulsa
 

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Line

I can definitely see why this line is so low. The Cards have been hardly dominant over the last month and either has Carpenter. If Carpenter was pitching like he was in the beginning of the season and/or the cards were winning like they should be the line would probably be more in the -170 or -180 range.

That being said I have been closely monitoring the Cardinals of late and i think things might be clicking for them. I still think the Cards are one of the best teams in the game and they have the best offense in the NL hands down if they are all healthy. Pujols seems to be back to normal as of late and a win like yesterday should give them just the kickstart they need. I am seriously just waiting for them to go on a run and win about 10 straight. I just want to jump on that train at win 3 or 4 instead of at win 7 or 8.

Its a good bet tonight. Thanks for the Twins/Rangers under as i completely tailed you on that. Dont play the o/u much unless a respected capper posts it here and i tend to agree. On the other hand this White Sox game is killing me. I have shit to do and i have been stuck at the house all day watching this thing. One hell of a game and I am hoping that me being a homer (die hard chisox fan) will work out for me.

Its good to see you posting again Kruser... Keep up the good work.
 

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basilesox said:
On the other hand this White Sox game is killing me. I have shit to do and i have been stuck at the house all day watching this thing. One hell of a game and I am hoping that me being a homer (die hard chisox fan) will work out for me.

Its good to see you posting again Kruser... Keep up the good work.

Same here, I can't get away from the TV! I have shit I need to be doing but I just can't walk away from this one. You know the funny thing is that I really don't believe in jinxes, but listen to this-

Yesterday when the Astros were up 6-4 I started making a post about my 2-0 afternoon and making my night picks. I did this with 2 outs and nobody on - Cards win 7-6. Today I started I coudnted the Red Sox as a win as I was making my Cardinals bet. . . This again was with 2 outs- now here we are in the 17th. I really may start believing in jinxes.
 

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Kruser6 said:
Same here, I can't get away from the TV! I have shit I need to be doing but I just can't walk away from this one. You know the funny thing is that I really don't believe in jinxes, but listen to this-

Yesterday when the Astros were up 6-4 I started making a post about my 2-0 afternoon and making my night picks. I did this with 2 outs and nobody on - Cards win 7-6. Today I started I coudnted the Red Sox as a win as I was making my Cardinals bet. . . This again was with 2 outs- now here we are in the 17th. I really may start believing in jinxes.

Ha Ha. You better not do that anymore. LOL Unless you are against me on a play that is. Why dont you go ahead and Bet Houston and count that as a win. I need STL tonight. I am thinking of betting 4 times as much as i usually bet on the game. Houston and Pettitte just arent strong enough at home to get it done against Carpenter IMO. I am actually planning my workout around the game so i can watch it.
 

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though i am new at mlb i have found that favorites seem to come through for me more than football or baskets. this is just my impression. i have always made $ on dogs in the nfl and college fb over the years. maybe i'm just better at picking the favs in mlb, who knows?
 
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I took a flyer here & hit the over 8.5 hard. I smell a pitching meltdown coming from one if not both sides.

GL :toast:
 

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TTinco, that is what I was thinking. No deep analysis. I just believe that someone on one side or the other will have a break down tonight....

I don't know if I will play or not... tulsa
 

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I see no way that Houston can hit Carpenter hard. They only have two batters in the lineup hitting over .300 and the rest are in the very low .200's
 

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Andy has been wild all year....and Carpenter has not been nearly as good on the road this year.
 

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Journeyman said:
Andy has been wild all year....and Carpenter has not been nearly as good on the road this year.

Actually Carpenter's Road Whip is actually better than his home. He must have given up some timely hits while on the Road because the ERA is far worse. The only thing that bothers me is that Pettitte has been better at home but still not very good. I think the over looks good. I added a unit to my cardinals play and put a unit on the Over. I am thinking its not likely that the Astros win and it goes under. KNOCK on wood. LOL
 

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