Time to reflect back on your mistakes over the first half of the season and learn ?

Journeyman · Jul 10, 2006

What are the thngs you will change (if anything)?

I know certain teams and pitchers have killed me, the Indians and A's (both teams I did so well with last year) I'm going to kick them out of my rotation for the second half

Any bet/game involving Johan Santana (I went 0-7 in his games, for or against)

TOTALS!!!! Last year totals were so profitable, not the case this year...gonna cut back on totals.

And I feel I have fallen in love with the small favorites, gonna try and dig a little deeper and pull the trigger less frequently on favorites....I rarely go above -130 as it is, but I have found myself not taking enough shots with dogs.

atlantic10 · Jul 10, 2006

Baseball is the streakiest sport of them all. This year more than ever. Newtons Law. If a team is going good or bad, continue to bet on or against them and ride that horse until it dies. The "due to win or lose" idea should never be applied to this sport unless its an ELITE team due to win.

dr03 · Jul 10, 2006

i learned to wait until football season starts and just bet tennis during the mlb season

pj.sports · Jul 10, 2006

No more than 1 parlay per day. and No Live Betting! Man I just couldn't resist the +550 line for Astros at the middle of 9th inning last nite.:nohead:

ilovefootball+ · Jul 10, 2006

I love baseball because it is the easy to pick winner compares to basketball and football. You can ride Whitesox, redsox, tigers, and bet against pitts on the road as well as cubs. I made over $20k just to bet those games. I don't care who they played I keep riding them. I unloaded on the tigers and whitesox after their next losing game.

Iceman · Jul 10, 2006

before anyone makes any statement they should go back(hopefully people keep records) and double check to see if it is true, there is a few days off from betting and this should be a good project to see how what you need to improve on in the second half.

My advice is just dont guess on something but actually sit down and try to figue it out. You may be surprised. I too, thought my bets on totals were bad and actually I am up on them and surprisingly when I bet unders I have made more than I lost.

one thing I keep trying to do is beat top notch starters. Even though I had Texas yesterday, I think I am going to slow down and take a double take when a cy young type pitcher is facing me.

Instead of taking small faves Journey, I have found taking small dogs in toss up games have been beneficial for me.

Journeyman · Jul 10, 2006

Iceman said:
Instead of taking small faves Journey, I have found taking small dogs in toss up games have been beneficial for me.

I hear you and this is where I really have shined in the past, I'm not really sure why I have gotten away from that, I think once I fell behind I started forcing some plays.

Insiders · Jul 10, 2006

Probably wont do much if anything different after the break than i did in the first month.
Might play a few American Legue games that i didnt early on.

edpit · Jul 10, 2006

PITCHERS to NOT BET AGAINST IN 2ND HALF: (Please feel free to add)

J.Santana
R.Clemons
J.Contreras
R.Halladay
F.Liriano
T.Glavine
K.Rogers

You will have much success if you do that in the 2nd half!

GLA

Passion · Jul 10, 2006

ADD -- Jake Peavy and Chris Young to the above pitchers list to bet upon.

Journeyman · Jul 10, 2006

Add Eric Bedard, he has been stellar for the past month plus.

Dubpoet · Jul 10, 2006

Do not Bet the Phillies!

edpit · Jul 10, 2006

Dubpoet said:
Do not Bet the Phillies!

Im a Phillies fan and I TOTALLY AGREE!!!!

Lay off all Phillies games!!!

Good point Dub!

Puckhandler · Jul 10, 2006

When I play the under from now on, will only place 1st half!!! When will I ever learn?? Yesterday's ESPN game was the most devastating loss of the year for me.

phdinsports · Jul 11, 2006

Sad to say haven't learned a damn thing!!! Still find myself chasing even when I was up. Was doing fine just playing dogs (all my winning seasons 95% of my plays were dogs) Don't know why I started to press, by playing favourites after I was up!!!! Really hope to change that in the second half. Tracker forum has helped. I realized how far and fast I fell by chasing!!!!

stef · Jul 11, 2006

Agree on the less totals, been brutal on those. For me IF I would have been playing 5 ininning lines I would be up. Really need to look into more into these bullpens and closers teams have. I am running about 4-1 against me on save situations.

sumwon · Jul 11, 2006

.

Looks like almost everyone has taken a beating on totals so far. That might change.
I don't bet to many favs, but when i do i like to bet them when they're on a 3-4-5 win streak. Well guess what? After further review: -151 or higher Favs on a 3,4, or 5 game win streak: 41-36. BIG LOSER! -150 or lower Favs on a 3,4,or 5 game win streak: 56-46. BIG LOSER!
No wonder i ain't mak'n shit.
However, Betting the fav when the dog is on a 3,4, or 5 gane losing streak: 87-53 good but not terrific.
Here's a nice little stat. A team with a .470 or lower win % trying to sweep a team with a .501 or higer win % is only 2-10. Doesn't come up much but it's a good bet if the price isn't too high.
.

randolph · Jul 11, 2006

ilovefootball said:
I love baseball because it is the easy to pick winner compares to basketball and football. You can ride Whitesox, redsox, tigers, and bet against pitts on the road as well as cubs. I made over $20k just to bet those games. I don't care who they played I keep riding them. I unloaded on the tigers and whitesox after their next losing game.

Wow, $20k? Do you or have you been posting your daily selections on this forum ilovefootball?

Dawizster · Jul 11, 2006

First of all let me say I love that someone started a thead on this subject.
I am just learning to cap baseball and one thing I've learned is you can't
just base your bet on any one portion of the game.

Example: Pitching is crucial but there's ten other things to look at.
Since their are so many games in the schedule a dominant team may be due for a letdown now and then. You have to pick your spots carefully.

I have made some money riding the Tigers and Twins as of late but paying heavy juice for the moneyline. I don't feel comfortable with this tactic so I've been doing two team parlays and been fairly lucky.

I can't depend on luck anymore. I think watching the games and getting a feel for a teams tendencies is crucial. There will be some real opportunities here and like any endeavor the more you put into it the more you'll get out of it.
Let's Cash Fellas

Good Luck to all

Iceman · Jul 11, 2006

The key is to find something you think is totally different from the public perception and hopefully you are more right than wrong.

For examle my numbers really like Kim of the Colorado Rockies. I think the price on his games are usually way off or the Toronto Blue Jays are one of the best teams in baseball, than I should back them.

Everyone knows who the best pitchers and best teams are, its about finding hidden value if you want to be a long term winner.