Minor Leagues 7/10 Plays

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5-7-1, +.09 units YTD

after hyping up how much value my plays had...i managed to practically break 'even' on my posted plays. then, i went 8-0 yesterday making me 10-0 on un-posted plays. i'm hoping to deliver the goods today and hopefully by posting my plays i dont jinx them...

AA EL
Bowie Baysox +151 (1)
Connecticut Defenders UN 7.5 +100 (1)
Akron Aeros UN 8.5 -110 (1)

AA TL
Springfield Cardinals UN 9.5 +100 (2)
Arkansas Travelers OV 10.5 -101 (2)

AA SL
Huntsville Stars UN 8 -105 (1)

:toast:
 

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all of these lines have moved by about a dime or more...except for the OVER 10.5 (it is down to 10) which is ironic because that play should be the biggest according to my system...I have that game being a 14 o/u...which is 3.5 points off (roughly 30 % value).

but the fact that i only made it a 2 unit play means i backed off about 1 unit because i play about 1 unit every 10% the line is off...this line may be a trap, but i still think the line should be higher then 10...maybe the public is moving the line down because of the low amount of $$$ on these. i can tell that i am using similar ratings that pinny is because most of the lines i make for these games are within a dime of the actual line or .5 run from the total. i make my plays based on lines that are a certain % off.
 

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bznofx19 said:
all of these lines have moved by about a dime or more...except for the OVER 10.5 (it is down to 10) which is ironic because that play should be the biggest according to my system...I have that game being a 14 o/u...which is 3.5 points off (roughly 30 % value).

How did your system come up with 14?

Just looking at the team's averages on the year you get a shade over 9 runs per game (SA just over 4/Ark just under 5). Plus when you factor in both starters are having outstanding years I'd say there's alot of value with the Under.
 

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Long Live Sport said:
Aren't they playing the All-Star game in the Southern League tonight?

that is correct...my Stars UN 8 -105 is for 7/12...the line has dropped to 7.5 -111 though...good thing i snagged it at 8.
 

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1-3, -1.1 units on 7/10...cant win everyday (the 2 unit game won and finished right at 14 runs...my highly controversial projection :103631605 )

pending plays for 7/11-7/13:

AA SL 7/12
Huntsville Stars UN 8 -105 (1)

AA TL 7/11
Springfield Cardinals UN 9.5 +101 (2)
Arkansas Travelers OV 10.5 +101 (2)

AAA IL 7/13
G1 Ottawa Lynx +178 (1)
G2 Ottawa Lynx +178 (1)
Scranton/W-B Red Barons UN 9 -116 (1.5)
Syracuse SkyChiefs OV 8.5 -105 (1.5)

AAA PCL 7/13
Nashville Sounds +178 (3) (have them favored -211...think the line is a mistake)
Albuquerque Isotopes OV 9.5 -105 (2)
Tucson Sidewinders +111 (1.5)
Round Rock Express -116 (1)
 

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I admit I made an error in saying there could have been value with the Under in that game due to the fact I did not take into account that Arkansas's ballpark is some sort of hitters park. Re-calculating it appears the average total for games played at that ballpark should be in the neighbourhood of 12. But with those starters going yesterday I still don't know how your system could get 14.

It would be helpful if I could understand what factors are used to come up with these numbers.
 

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HPark1 said:
It would be helpful if I could understand what factors are used to come up with these numbers.

at a neutral park...the total should be 10.72 or 10.5 o-112/u+102

but...Ark is a hitters park and you should add 3.27 to the total. the posted total is basically what this game would be like at a neutral park.

this line has a value of 3.49...which comes out to be 30.27%

this should be a 3 unit play...but i will wait and see how my system works before laying more than 2 units on any total.

i am really trying to bet the max on the Nashville Sounds at +178 because my projections have them at -211...its almost like they switched up their power ratings and, in turn, the moneylines.

does anybody have any 'insider' info on why Memphis would be such heavy favorites over Nashville? i think they got the lines mixed up!!!
 

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bznofx19 said:
i am really trying to bet the max on the Nashville Sounds at +178 because my projections have them at -211...its almost like they switched up their power ratings and, in turn, the moneylines.

does anybody have any 'insider' info on why Memphis would be such heavy favorites over Nashville? i think they got the lines mixed up!!!

I'm pretty sure the line has just been set incorrectly. Line should be the exact reverse.

No variables could account for that line.
 

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Looking at the raw stats from all the games Arkansas and San Antonio have played this year;

Arkansas has scored 5 runs a game while allowing 6.33 runs a game.
San Antonio has scored 4.2 runs a game while allowing 3.9 runs a game.

Just adding all those numbers up and dividing you get a touch over 9.7 runs.

Would be easier if I could just get Arkansas's home game average. Can't grasp how much of a hitters park their ballpark is.
 
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SICK PEOPLE HERE :pucking: . CANT BETTING ANYTHING ELSE SO YOU PLAY MINOR LEAGUE WOW. I HAVE HEARD IT ALL NOW. :missingte
 

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trains40 said:
SICK PEOPLE HERE :pucking: . CANT BETTING ANYTHING ELSE SO YOU PLAY MINOR LEAGUE WOW. I HAVE HEARD IT ALL NOW. :missingte

actually i am up around 10 units playing minor league baseball ever since pinny started posting lines on them about a week ago... so i am not BETTING ON ANYTHING.

the fact is, i actually make lines....and in sports with very little action the lines are not as sharp. the WNBA is a horrible league to watch ...i dont give a shit because i have a totals equation that is hitting around 80% right now and i have not seen a single contest.

i have always said that i enjoy the "capping" part more then the betting part and that is why i would like to become an oddsmaker in the future. i just bet because i like making money off of my lines.

hey trains...what happened to that 'bet the underdog in everygame for the MLB system you had? did you just need action on every game and to eliminate the thinking aspect of capping?

:ears:
 

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bz, just wondering why you don't like the over in the Midland/Wachita game? Total is set at 9 and the pitcher's ERAs are 9.35 and 4.79.
 
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just to much to keep up with thats all. plus it was back and forth. i do have a real job trust me, was just having some fun on the message boards. hey not knocking betting this minor stuff just funny to hear it out loud. i am betting junkie. whatever makes money i am in. :103631605 :party:
 

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Johnny B said:
bz, just wondering why you don't like the over in the Midland/Wachita game? Total is set at 9 and the pitcher's ERAs are 9.35 and 4.79.

i have it set at 9.5...so 'no' play for me. i dont think the 'over' would be a bad play here....
 

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all of the lines for today's games, that i got, have moved quite a bit...the Nashville line has moved to +111 (and dropping) because A.Reyes was supposed to go for Memphis when the line came out (now it is T.Smith) ...now the pitching matchup even favors Nashville as Jered Fernandez is going for them, who has been solid.
 

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Nashville is now favored by -150...did anyone get them when they were at +175-178???

talk about line movement....:toast:
 

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Snagged them at +167 for 3 units.

AWESOME that you posted a few days in advance. Really gave you a value advantage.

Thanks for the posts. Hopefully they will come up big.
 

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Got at +175 shortly after seeing your post.
That was the easy part, now they need to win.:suomi:

I was able to get the same numbers that you got on the games and am tailing them all.

Cant win MLB so Minor League looks like good opp right now.
 

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