"Baseball's Secret Formula"

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"Baseballs Secret Formula"

- Baseball Statistician test their theory that they can accurately predict a player's true value to his team using calculators, stat books, and custom equations. -


The Science Channel

Times Airing
July 11, 2006 ~ 3:00 AM - 4:00 AM CST (Right Now At Time Of Post)
July 11, 2006 ~ 9:00 AM - 10:00 AM CST
July 11, 2006 ~ 1:00 PM - 2:00 PM CST


Everyone Has Probably Already Seen This, But Putting It On The Forum, Just In Case.
 

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So Far, Program Is Very Interesting On All The Formulas Used, including OBP, "Runs Created" Formula, Ballpark Configuration, etc ..

Interesting Facts So Far

When comparing Shea Stadium to Coors Field, a 400 foot flyball sails 440 at Coors Field. Yes, I already knew that, but something that I'm surprised I overlooked was a pitchers curveball at Coors Field curves 33% less than at Shea Stadium. 33% is quite a difference.

This "professor" created this formula years ago and has been updating it since. The Oakland Athletics used it one year when they finished w/ 103 wins, equaling the 103 wins by the Yankees. Something like $400,000 / win for the Athletics compared to $1,300,000 / win for the Yankees. The owner that used this formula moved on, though. In 2004, Terry Francona decided to change his batting order and pitching rotation according to the "Sabermetric System", and we all know the result of that.

This "professor" figured everything into his formula, and batting order and offensive/defensive strategy is huge. He ran formulas that say NO to the "sacrifice bunt", the "intentional walk", stealing bases, etc. One number that I remember, a guy on 1st base w/ no outs has a 96% value at scoring; however a guy on 2nd base w/ 1 out (sac. bunt) has a 52% value at scoring. It also said a guy on 1st and 2nd w/ no out has a 167% value on scoring. It also explains the batting order, when/what to do according to the number of outs and inning number, etc.

But yeah, I'm talking way too much, but interesting so far .. basically, this "professor" said baseball is the only strategic sport b/c there's no time limit, not everyone is moving sporadically around the field for the ball, etc. Basically, everything in baseball revolves around 1 thing ... the "out".

It's about halfway through the program ... if anyone else would like to know other interesting facts about the second half of the program, I'll share them with you. It said before commercial it's going to share the "All-Time" best players according to their "Win Share" (value to their team), based on the Sabermetric System.​
 

"Here we go again"
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im gonna catch the 10-11 am eastern program. thanks for telling us about this.
 

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I'll Continue My Babbling ...

With this sabermetric system, which is constantly updating, the "professor" derived an All-MLB team. Included in this formula is "Win Share", "Similarity Score", "ERA Score", and "Basic Defensive Score".

"Win Share" ... A lot of offensive attributes, including Runs, RBI's, OBP, etc.. One of the formulas is "Runs Created", which is (Hits + Walks) X (Total Number Of Bases), then divide that total w/ (Plate Appearances). Also compared ballparks; for instance, a guy that has 100 RBI's in Coors Field where you need 6 runs average to win has a far less value than a guy who has 80 RBI's in a park where you need 4 runs average to win. A lot of other undiscussed formulas used to create this.

"Similarity Score" ... Basically, using all the other formulas to even see if you can compare a player with another player.

"ERA Score" ... Uses years that the player played baseball. I'm not a historian, so I found out a lot of decent information that they use here. For instance, pre 1920 was the "Dead Ball" era, in which the baseball was used over and over until the yarn inside started to become undone. This created a very, very soft ball, which reduced in runs tremendously. League leaders in home runs usually had around 10 home runs per year. 1920 - 1960 was "Live Ball" era, where an extra hard ball was used, creating easier homeruns. 1960, the strike zone was changed giving the tremendous edge to the pitcher. So on, and so on, basically, the "professor" is gathering any kind of information that's possible.

"Defensive Score" ... With the runs the player creates, also takes into conclusion how many runs the player gives up. The "professor" said this is the part of the formula that needs extreme updating, because defensive stats are so 'primitive'. There's a common day field of researchers who now look at every game, every pitch, and mark down the velocity of the pitch, location of the pitch, velocity of the ball hit, location of the ball hit, etc ... They also look at position of the defensive players and what "sector" the ball is hit to. An example was an outfielder that stood in Sector 68 (can't remember #) should catch a ball w/ a certain velocity hit into Sectore 47 approx. 76% of the time. These researchers want to someday have a permanent camera set atop every stadium that maps out visual sectors on the field. They also want to implant "chips" in baseballs and on the baseball players to decide player GPS position on field, speed of ball, etc...


So, with all this information, including the 'primitive' defensive stats at his disposal, the All-MLB Team created using this system is :

Catcher : Yogi Berra
( Josh Gibson could've, but not enough stats)

1st Base : Lou Gehrig

2nd Base : Joe Morgan

3rd Base : Mike Schmidt

Short Stop : Honus Wagner

Left Field : Ted Williams

Center Field : Willie Mayes

Right Field : Babe Ruth

Starting Pitcher : Roger Clemens

There's also a certain-batting order, pitching changes, etc. but the program didn't reveal that. Keep In Mind, not just offensive stats is used. Era-Specific stats had a huge part in his equation, he stated, b/c a guy that hit 10 homeruns during the "Dead Ball" era was equivalent to 70 homeruns in the modern era. But the system is updating and changing to this day.

Okay, sorry for taking up space. Just thought some people might find this interesting. Not being a huge baseball nut, I still found it very interesting. Maybe b/c I'm the geek that always wants to crunch numbers and make "systems". But check out the other start times and try to watch it.

 

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One number that I remember, a guy on 1st base w/ no outs has a 96% value at scoring;

He needs to go to a real Game :missingte Them Jokers wouldnt be 96% with the bases loaded.:drink:
 

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I don't think the 96% "Value" at scoring necessarily meant he'll score 96% of the time, but I could be wrong. It was just an interesting overall program.​
 

SSI

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that team is close to what i have, in fact closer than most ive seen..

completely agree with ruth/schmidt/wagner/gehrig

i have a hard time leaving ty cobb and henry aaron off alltime teams..

interesting thread..
 

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