Guys, this is a very basic idea and examination: I just assumed a 10.5 O/U for every All-Star game: Remember, All-Star games have very strong similarities one to another even from 1956 compared to 2005! Great pitchers and great hitters....generally.
Over 73 years and 72 All-Star games the final total runs were over 10.5 JUST 24 times.
The UNDER 10.5 would be 48-24 over those 73 years (72 games)
Since 1956 the UNDER 10.5 is 34-16 or 68%
In that 50 year/game period, 19 of those 34 were significantly BELOW 10.5 runs. Those 19 of the 34 were 6 run totals or below.
Last 20 years the UNDER 10.5 is 12-8 or 60%
Last 10 years the UNDER 10.5 is 5-5.
The last 5 years has the UNDER 10.5 at 1-4
The last FOUR All-Star games in a row have gone OVER 10.5
We have a strong trend here.....
The scoring looks to be trending up.
BUT BUT, I don't believe it is trending up as fast as the last five years might lead one to believe ===> the last five years results lead to INFLATION of the O/U offered for this year's game.
Out of the last ten years, recall the record was 5-5 for O/U 10.5, BUT four of those five UNDER 10.5's were significantly below 10.5 runs.
Because of my belief in inflation and because I believe that we have seen an abnormal number of higher scoring games leading to that inflation with no deep under-lying cause (roids?)....because of these things, though we are trending higher, I believe this will be UNDER. I am just leaning right now.
Here is what I would like you guys to address for me: how do the sluggers in this year's All-Star game compare to what we've seen in the past ten or fifteen years? Please, if you address anything else that is fine, but help me a little here. At least try to let me know your thoughts on this year's batters compared to previous few years.
I look forward to your comments and good luck. tulsa
Over 73 years and 72 All-Star games the final total runs were over 10.5 JUST 24 times.
The UNDER 10.5 would be 48-24 over those 73 years (72 games)
Since 1956 the UNDER 10.5 is 34-16 or 68%
In that 50 year/game period, 19 of those 34 were significantly BELOW 10.5 runs. Those 19 of the 34 were 6 run totals or below.
Last 20 years the UNDER 10.5 is 12-8 or 60%
Last 10 years the UNDER 10.5 is 5-5.
The last 5 years has the UNDER 10.5 at 1-4
The last FOUR All-Star games in a row have gone OVER 10.5
We have a strong trend here.....
The scoring looks to be trending up.
BUT BUT, I don't believe it is trending up as fast as the last five years might lead one to believe ===> the last five years results lead to INFLATION of the O/U offered for this year's game.
Out of the last ten years, recall the record was 5-5 for O/U 10.5, BUT four of those five UNDER 10.5's were significantly below 10.5 runs.
Because of my belief in inflation and because I believe that we have seen an abnormal number of higher scoring games leading to that inflation with no deep under-lying cause (roids?)....because of these things, though we are trending higher, I believe this will be UNDER. I am just leaning right now.
Here is what I would like you guys to address for me: how do the sluggers in this year's All-Star game compare to what we've seen in the past ten or fifteen years? Please, if you address anything else that is fine, but help me a little here. At least try to let me know your thoughts on this year's batters compared to previous few years.
I look forward to your comments and good luck. tulsa
