Saturday's MLB... and a MONSTER total

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Sports ANALyst
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Oct 13, 2004
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As my good friend TimH would say, last night's baseball resembled Sun Belt football - betting with 'your pecker in a jigsaw'... Could not catch a break last night.

Was astutely told to lay off Diego, but didn't. Also was advised by more than one to bet STL on run line... nope... Was told to lay off Clemens til he gets a break on the road, but no....

The other league was even worse. I had a strong feeling on Oakland (though I think they are mispriced every day... now that Bradley is back I expect their offense to wake up)... yet was only able to break even on that game and the Texas/Baltimore game (lose OVER and OVER parlay with Texas, fell into same bear trap as rest of squares in Western hemisphere).... Kansas City is just Kansas City, another game tonight in Detroit, another ridiculous price but until they beat that team I just can't invest any more money... woulda been a nice hit last night and I would have loved to have 9 runs off Miner before the game started, yet the pen spits it up again??? Seattle didn't get over the total so I barely make anything there and I got clobbered again on the Minny total, same deal with Baltimore... and the White Sox give up 3 in the eighth, get back 2 in the ninth off Rivera and leave a man on third... AJ's at bat with two out was a great one but in the end, it resulted in a popup to ex-fucking-Royal Guiel, who hit one out and went 3 for 3 or some shit like that, with a great catch in foul ground for the second out in the 9th... amazing....

I thought I capped them pretty good in the AL yesterday, figured when I left for home about 9 Eastern that I was going to win a peanut at the worst, instead I finish 2-6 and lose 3040. Now 197-233-7 and down 4071 on the season. Long way to go....

Dodgers in free fall right now. Up and down all season, here's another down-turn. Soup's ERA at home is five full runs better than it is on the road. An 85 cent difference isn't too good for a home team but I can't see the Dodgers losing by one here.

The play: STL -1.5 runs plus 137 - 400 to win 548

Cub total is an absolute mistake. Glavine is better at home than on the road. Z is better on the road than he is at home. Glav only won three of his last eight starts. He's not gone more than 6 1/3 in his last three starts. Hot day, ball will travel well and wind won't hurt. Neither will CB Bucknor (27-12 L3 in NL)... This will certainly close higher.

The play: NYM/CUB OVER 8 -105 - 1050 to win 1000

Pettitte is a notorious second-half pitcher. In 2005 he was 11-2 with a 1.69 ERA in 16 starts. Josh Johnson comes off a win over Mets at Shea right before the break, allowing just 2 unearned runs. At home, he's 5-1 with a 1.93 ERA. Total is too high.

The play: HOU/FLA UNDER 8 -106 - 636 to win 600

Capuano got his start pushed back thanks to making the AS team; he was traded to Brew in 2003 for Sexson so might be a little overhyped in a return to the desert. Webb's ERA in the last 2 is a scant 1.13 and he's made 16 quality starts of 19 possible this year. Still, this is when he usually starts to tail off. Montague behind the plate in Zona tonight (17-3 NL overs last 20)... will take a shot with this price, even with the roof closed.

The play: MIL/ARI OVER 8.5 plus 111 - 444 to win 400

Total too low in Diego? I mean, they just scored 28 runs last night. Even with these two starters, would have to think about a possible play on over with Hickox behind the dish.

These are the plays I salivate about all year. Eddings and his 28-54 O/U L3 is behind the dish in Toronto. (11-26 AL L3)... He's only 8-10 this year but that will start to even out. Now four of last six gone UNDER. Four of his six MOYER have been UNDERS and he's not had Roy since 2003, his one game at SkyDome came in 2002 with Roy and Mays and TOR won 7-2 (push). Moyer was decent last time on July 5 vs. ANA, he allowed two homers for all four runs allowed but settled down after two first-inning walks. His control is usually impeccable. Roy is first 12-game winner in baseball, he's 2-0 with 0.61 ERA in July. This should be destroyed and it will be my biggest baseball bet of the year thus far.

The play: UNDER 9 -120 - 2400 to win 2000

Giving serious thought to Texas play. Bedard going better than Rheinecker but look at team records vs. LH starters...

Not sure if they just want to keep shelling cash out to Oakland or what. Schilling another pitcher who is unbeaten at Fenway this season but Milton Bradley is back in A's lineup and he had four hits last night. Haren is as good as Zito when healthy and if he can get even a little run support, I like Oakland's chances once more tonight. They have been scary good as a dog lately, I think maybe winning 10 of 12 in that role?

THe play: Oakland plus 167 - 500 to win 835

UNDER ump in Detroit. Think I care with the way these two are going? Grrr...

Sabathia is 5-1 with a 1.06 ERA following a Cleveland loss. Very impressive. Santana has not been pitching as well as of late and I've got to try to beat him again at this price.

The play: Cleveland plus 157 - 500 to win 785

GL everyone...

:smoker2:
 

Sports ANALyst
Joined
Oct 13, 2004
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Thanks fellas. GL to all of ya...

Capuano is cementing his status as one of the best pitchers in the National League. His last start was a thing of beauty, a complete-game shutout where he did not walk a batter. He ranks in the top-5 in the NL of wins, IPs and strikeouts after the first half, and won 18 games last season. He six-hit the Cubs in that last win, striking out six with no walks. He has now won five straight. Webb has pitched a better in his last two starts. Traditionally, however, he's second-half fade material. Webb is 1-3 in his last six starts and his career July record for his career is 6-10. In addition, Arizona leadoff man Counsell broke a rib last night and will be out of the lineup for the foreseeable future. The Beermen look very inviting at this price.

The play: Milwaukee plus 124 - 500 to win 620
 

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the minute you think it can't get worse.............
 

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