Hypothetical Question

SSI · Jul 15, 2006

If you found something that hit at a 58-60% winning clip, against a (-1.20) spread over a very large number of games.

but the trick was, for it continue to work for you,,,,,,,,,, you had to keep it a secret and not tell one living soul (or post it on forum)..

could you do it, and simply collect the money?

sounds silly but i bet it would be harder than you may think, to keep that secret..

aceduecetrey · Jul 15, 2006

easily.

there is not much I wouldnt do to be winning at 60%

SSI · Jul 15, 2006

but the desire to tell, would be great...

wasnt there a fable written, that was similar to this..

Iceman · Jul 15, 2006

isn't that the same as hitting 54-56% against -110 lines? I already have something in hoops I trust that can do this and posted it a few times.

The problem is (IMO) the close to call games where you have to make a judgement call on it. I imagine those are when expierence takes over.

SSI,
I have been studying line movement for a few weeks now and off and on all year long. I treat it like day trading. I think I have found a few things that put me over the 53% mark (ROI 2%) with really no caping involved. The problem is that I think it involves way more time than standard capping.

SSI · Jul 15, 2006

Ice, what if there was something (100% mechanical) that could hit 58/60% against a (-1.20) line...

SSI · Jul 15, 2006

Isnt 58% against a (-1.20) line........... 6.3% ROI....... or am i figuring wrong?

Iceman · Jul 15, 2006

SSI said:
Isnt 58% against a (-1.20) line........... 6.3% ROI....... or am i figuring wrong?

if so that would be = to 55.5% versuses -110 lines. So maybe the same as 55-57%(-110)

Iceman · Jul 15, 2006

I think and I may be wrong but 58% at -120 lines is 7.6 ROI, right? same as 56% at -110

Iceman · Jul 15, 2006

Iceman said:
I think and I may be wrong but 58% at -120 lines is 7.6 ROI, right? same as 56% at -110

this is right so 56%-58% at -110 is the same or so as 58%-60% at -120

SSI · Jul 15, 2006

i dont know, your the numbers guy..

ive got 58% vs. a (-1.20) at 6.3% ROI

and 56% vs. a (-1.20) at 2.3% ROI..

think im right..

Iceman · Jul 15, 2006

no, they are both 7.6 ROI

teazeman · Jul 15, 2006

SSI said:
but the desire to tell, would be great...

wasnt there a fable written, that was similar to this..

email it to me and i'll share it with everyone, you would be off the hook and everyone would be happy.

SSI · Jul 15, 2006

well, whats the ROI for 56%..

is it not: (56-52.8)/120 = 2.6% ROI

SSI · Jul 15, 2006

teazeman, id be telling you in the email..... thus killing the goose..

SkinsRaj28 · Jul 15, 2006

WTF, if the only stipulation was that you couldn't share it, who the fuck cares? Make your $ and enjoy it...it's not your duty to share your plays.

Worst-case scenario, just tell your friends to trust you with X amount of dollars, and bet it for them. They'll thank you for the money and not question your strategy. Shit.

Iceman · Jul 15, 2006

SSI said:
well, whats the ROI for 56%..

is it not: (56-52.8)/120 = 2.6% ROI

56% at -120 lines= 3.2 ROI

SSI · Jul 15, 2006

could you live on those figures? 56% against a (-1.20) line..

Iceman · Jul 15, 2006

SSI said:
could you live on those figures? 56% against a (-1.20) line..

YES

When I set goals I always try to set reasonable goals. For gambling to be worth it to me I need at least 2.5% but that doesn't mean I don't strive for better than that.

SSI · Jul 15, 2006

what about a 3.2% return for 15 minutes worth of work per day?

would that be worth it to you?

if you could only generate 100 plays per month (average) and wanted to make 4k per month (average)......... what would be the amount of your bet? (flat betting)...

Iceman · Jul 15, 2006

SSI,

20k bankroll at 1% bet = $200 a game.
5 games a day (avg) times 365 days a year =1,825 wagers
1825 wagers times 220 (-110 lines) = $401,500 bet
$200,750 bet times .076 (ROI) =$30,514

this example is why I am such a beleiver in betting LOTS of games. Imagine if you average 10 games a day. Find as many edges as you can (big or small) and churn your bankroll safely with low pct of BR bets.