Expierment: Fading the steam (season thread)

Iceman

Rx Wizard

Joined

Oct 25, 2005

Messages

11,731

Tokens

• Jul 15, 2006

• #1

going to use this thread to fade public. I will explain the whole thing later.

1st play:
Under 9.5 Baltimore -100/+120 (I know game already started. I promise to post these as soon as I bet them). I want accuracy so I want to post this now for record keeping purposes. Hopefully no one mines.

Will be back to explain the theory on this.

 

fivedoorsdown

New member

Joined

Sep 21, 2004

Messages

9,017

Tokens

• Jul 15, 2006

• #2

hope you faded them white sox

 

Iceman

Rx Wizard

Joined

Oct 25, 2005

Messages

11,731

Tokens

• Jul 15, 2006

• #3

fivedoorsdown said:

hope you faded them white sox

Click to expand...

NO. It didn't quailfy

 

Ego74

The Straightshooter

Joined

Sep 20, 2004

Messages

7,118

Tokens

• Jul 15, 2006

• #4

Yeah, would like to see how you approach doing this, since there seems to be a bunch of steam plays/wiseguy moves, ect in a given day... Would like to see someone try this for College and Pro Football when the season starts

 

Italianole

Forza Noles!

Joined

Oct 26, 2005

Messages

1,207

Tokens

• Jul 15, 2006

• #5

How are you determining what a play is? I mean, take these two hypothetical games as examples.

The first is Astros v. Cards with an opening line of -130. By closing time the line is Cards -150 but 75% of the public was on the Cards. The second game is Indians v. Tigers with an opening line of Tigers -115. 55% of the public is on the Indians but the line closes at Tigers -125. Do you look at percentages or are you just going strictly on line movement? I would think these two games would be interpreted differently. Interested on your thoughts...

 

SSI

New member

Joined

Sep 21, 2004

Messages

14,040

Tokens

• Jul 15, 2006

• #6

Ice, best of luck, keep us posted..

What if things that seemed logical were not.. What if we could pinpoint, why the public is usually wrong in their thinking.... and instead of using "steam" or "consensus", we merely could use something that is mechanical to achieve the desired results (15 min per day)..

as you can see, from this statement and my other thread, that we were talking in,,,,,,,,, that i have something to say...

but every time that i open my mouth ------- it seems to implode on me..

so, ill be quiet...

 

Iceman

Rx Wizard

Joined

Oct 25, 2005

Messages

11,731

Tokens

• Jul 15, 2006

• #7

Thanks guys for the encouragement. I have been doing something like this all year and want a place to keep track. I will post how I do it later.

The thing is I have never did this with totals (baseball) just sides. But there was more steam plays (IMO) on totals.

 

Iceman

Rx Wizard

Joined

Oct 25, 2005

Messages

11,731

Tokens

• Jul 15, 2006

• #8

adding:
under 9.5 Boston -100/+109 (Pinnacle)
under 7.5 Minnestoa -110/+100 (Cascade)

 

Iceman

Rx Wizard

Joined

Oct 25, 2005

Messages

11,731

Tokens

• Jul 16, 2006

• #9

YTD:
2-1 +119

Florida -102/+100

 

Iceman

Rx Wizard

Joined

Oct 25, 2005

Messages

11,731

Tokens

• Jul 16, 2006

• #10

adding:
under 10.5 Texas -100/+100 (SIA) "reverse steam"

 

SSI

New member

Joined

Sep 21, 2004

Messages

14,040

Tokens

• Jul 16, 2006

• #11

like the florida play..

 

Iceman

Rx Wizard

Joined

Oct 25, 2005

Messages

11,731

Tokens

• Jul 16, 2006

• #12

adding:
St.Louis -110/+100 (SIA)
under 10.5 Boston -100/+108 (Mansion)
under 10 Minnestoa -100/+111 (Mansion)

 

HarryCaray

EV Whore

Joined

Apr 18, 2006

Messages

19,916

Tokens

• Jul 16, 2006

• #13

Iceman said:

adding:
St.Louis -110/+100 (SIA)
under 10.5 Boston -100/+108 (Mansion)
under 10 Minnestoa -100/+111 (Mansion)

Click to expand...

Iceman you have email.

 

Iceman

Rx Wizard

Joined

Oct 25, 2005

Messages

11,731

Tokens

• Jul 16, 2006

• #14

adding:
under 8.5 Tampa Bay -100/+135 (Cascade)

 

Iceman

Rx Wizard

Joined

Oct 25, 2005

Messages

11,731

Tokens

• Jul 16, 2006

• #15

adding:
San Fransisco -100/+103 (Mansion)

 

Iceman

Rx Wizard

Joined

Oct 25, 2005

Messages

11,731

Tokens

• Jul 16, 2006

• #16

adding:
Arizona -100/+104 (Mansion)

 

SSI

New member

Joined

Sep 21, 2004

Messages

14,040

Tokens

• Jul 16, 2006

• #17

do not like the Az play..

 

freebie

New member

Joined

May 4, 2005

Messages

896

Tokens

• Jul 16, 2006

• #18

I'm curious as to see what you have for NYM/CHC game tonight on ESPN.

You're doing an excellent job here. Keep it up.

 

Iceman

Rx Wizard

Joined

Oct 25, 2005

Messages

11,731

Tokens

• Jul 16, 2006

• #19

SSI said:

do not like the Az play..

Click to expand...

I screwed up it was under 9.5 on this game. Either way it lost. I need to slow down when I post these. Have to post close to gametime and that unfortuatley doesn't help alot of people

 

SSI

New member

Joined

Sep 21, 2004

Messages

14,040

Tokens

• Jul 16, 2006

• #20

you'll do fine.. continue the good work..

someday real soon, im going to make a believer out of you..