Alt run line parlay theory

ETH365 · Jul 16, 2006

I just noticed today that sportsbook.com will let you parlay alternate runlines with totals for the same game. I think that there may be an inherent advantage to parlaying the -1.5 runline for the favorite with the over. The reason for this is that if the game scores more runs than predicted, it is more likely that one of the teams will win by more than 1 run. Essentially, the logic of the parlay overlaps but you are still getting full odds.

Doing this is almost along the same lines of parlaying the first half with the full game -- if the team you picked wins the first half, it is more likely that they will win the game. No sportsbook would dare take that wager, as there is a very obvious advantage there, and while i dont believe that this system is nearly as strong as doing that would be, there is still probably a small advantage here. Will it be enough to beat the juice? im not sure.

It is worth noting that pinnacle does not allow you to make this bet. You cannot parlay the alt runlines with the total for the same game there. I am guessing this is because they realize that there is potential for the player to have the advantage by doing this.

SKDiablo · Jul 16, 2006

is sportsbook.com legit?

SKDiablo · Jul 16, 2006

ugh, SBR has sportsbook.com as a D+ rated site

SKDiablo · Jul 16, 2006

ok here are my thoughts on the original post:

I have never used sportsbook.com, so I dunno what the typical vig is. with exception of pinnaclesports, tho, vig on alternate run line is pretty signfiicant (20 cents or so). If this is the case, there may not be much value in parlaying over and the alt. runline. Just because you are not getting the "good" numbers.

but at any rate, it would be better to parlay the alt. runline +1.5 with the under. This is especially the case if the home team is favored, and you can parlay the home team +1.5 with the under.

here is my suggestion on how you should go about doing this: compare the alternate runlines offered by sportsbook to pinny alternate runlines. focus on the hometeam +1.5s. If you can find line better than (even slightly) than pinny, parlay that with the under.

SKDiablo · Jul 16, 2006

that said, i'm not touching this D+ rated site.

in128770 · Jul 16, 2006

What's SBR?

Degz · Jul 16, 2006

SBR = Sportsbook Review

I use to play w/ Sportsbook a few years back when credit cards could still be used. They dont offer much of anything for soccer, and their lines are often not good at all. (-120) on most games straight up. I never ever had a problem however getting money from sportsbook. They would always send me a check in the mail. However, I still do not advise using that book when their are so many better books like Pinny, bet 365, 5 Dimes, etc. Hope this helps.

PatrickMcIrish · Jul 16, 2006

ETH365 · Jul 16, 2006

The only reason i use them from time to time is because they are connected to paradise poker, which i keep a bankroll at. Paradise poker is 100% legit, so i cant imagine they would allow sportsbook.com to screw over thier customers. I feel like my money is perfectly safe there because of that.

Thier baseball lines operate on a 10 cent line and are pretty similar to pinnacle, you can occasionally find better prices there when going against the public than pinnacle.

I dont know if any other books allow you the option, but you might want to check out 5dimes to see if you can do it there... they have a lot of wagering options there and i wouldnt be too suprised if you could do this there as well. If you find any other books that let you parlay alt runlines with totals for the same game, id definately be interested in knowing about them.

For shits and giggles i am going to plug both parlay options (-1.5 and over, +1.5 and under) into thier interface and keep track of the results for awhile. I wont actually be betting these.

ETH365 · Jul 16, 2006

Todays plays: All bets 10$

-1.5 runline and over selected for all teams, parlayed together.

Team | Total | To win
Marlins 8.5 45.36
Reds 10 37.67
Pirates 9.5 35.12
Cardinals 9 44
Padres 8 43.30
Giants 9 43.17
Arizona 9.5 46.62
Yankees 10.5 37.67
Tigers 9.5 24.36
Bluejays 9.5 38
Rangers 10.5 37
Redsox 10.5 34.92
Indians 10 33.20
Angels 8.5 26

There was no total available on the mets game at the time i checked on these, so i did not include that game.

ETH365 · Jul 16, 2006

Results day 1:

Marlins +45.36
Reds Total was tied, +7.78
Pirates -10
Cardinals +44
Padres -10
Giants -10
Arizona -10
Yankees -10
Tigers -10
Bluejays -10
Rangers -10
Redsox -10
Indians -10
Angels +26

3 wins, 1 split, 10 losses +23.14 (+2.314 units)

SKDiablo · Jul 17, 2006

interesting find. i would be watching for the next few weeks. thx.

randolph · Jul 17, 2006

For the record, 5dimes doesn't allow this type of wager as well.

ETH365 · Jul 17, 2006

Todays plays:

Team ----- Total ----- To win

Marlins 9 37.77
Rockies 9.5 34.92
Cardinals 10 34.23
Diamondbacks 9.5 44.22
Phillies 8 36.77
Giants 8.5 30
Bluejays 9.5 38.58
Yankees 9.5 30.09
Redsox 10.5 21.43
A's 10 34.87
Twins 9.5 36.86
Indians 9.5 35.88

I suspect that this system works best on games where there are low totals and high +money for the alt runline. An example of this would be the marlins game tonight, with the run line set at +170 and the total set at 9.

I suspect the system works worst on high totals where the -1.5 line offers little if any +money. An example of this would be the red sox game today (-1.5 line is -140, total is 10.5)

Has anyone found any other books besides sportsbook.com that allow you to make parlays with the alt run lines?

fightclub34 · Jul 17, 2006

I think your just using the runline not the alt runline. Alt runline is the underdog -1.5

ETH365 · Jul 17, 2006

Yes, all bets are the standard runline, -1.5 parlayed with the over, sorry for the confusion and thanks for the correction.

ETH365 · Jul 18, 2006

Marlins -10
Rockies -10
Cardinals -10
Diamondbacks +44.22
Phillies -10
Giants -10
Bluejays +38.58
Yankees -10
Redsox -10
A's -10
Twins -10
Indians -10

Today
2 wins, 10 losses, -17.20 (-1.72 units)

YTD: 5 wins, 1 split, 20 losses, +5.94 (+.594 units)

I wonder how long it would take to determine for a fact if this actually works. At least a full year of keeping track of all the games, probably more like 2 years.

ETH365 · Jul 18, 2006

Todays bets

Marlins 8 28.92
Rockies 9.5 38.18
Mets 10.5 34.86
Cardinals 10 37.73
Diamondbacks 10.5 41.74
Phillies 8.5 31.78
Giants 9.5 39.64
Rangers 11 36.13
Redsox 11 20.56
A's 11 34.86
Yankees 11 32.00
Tigers 9.5 38.61
Twins 7.5 37.30
Indians 9.5 33.91

Astros/cubs - no line available at this time for the total

I really dont like this system for games like the redsox game tonight where you are laying -150 on the -1.5 line, as personally i would never lay that much chalk for a run line on a baseball game. In the future i may refine the parameters to games with runlines which pay +120 or greater, but for now i will just list them across the board.

PokerKingJim · Jul 18, 2006

Nice thread. I would think using the true alternate runline (underdog -1.5) parlayed with the over would be more profitable. But not many sites have alt runlines and even fewer have the parlays you speak of. Interested in seeing how this goes though

ETH365 · Jul 19, 2006

Marlins -10
Rockies +38.18
Mets +34.86
Cardinals -10
Diamondbacks -10
Phillies -10
Giants -10
Rangers -10
Redsox -10
A's -10
Yankees -10
Tigers -10
Twins +37.30
Indians -10

3 wins, 11 losses, +.34 (+.034 units, woot!)

YTD: 8 wins, 1 split, 31 losses +6.28 (.628 units)