Four Friday picks w/explanations

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3-0 yesterday, 11-4 this week (+8.67 units) using my new strategy.

Here is what I have going for Friday, July 21:

Guess who has won about a million games in a row after starting off slowly. The Braves somehow got themselves back into the wild-card hunt by sweeping San Diego, and taking two of three at St. Louis. Now they have to beat the Phillies, who are a woeful 21-26 at home, with John Smoltz, winner of his previous three starts. Philadelphia, on the other hand, is 4-7 when Cory Lidle has started in his own ballpark.
Braves -1½ +115.

The Pirates managed to beat the Marlins yesterday, but that was with Ian Snell, the former's top pitcher. Paul Maholm isn't nearly as good; Pittsburgh is just 2-7 in his road starts. In fact, the Pirates are only 3-11 in their last 14 stints as a visitor.
Marlins -1½ +150. Best Bet.

Dan Haren's stats might make him look like a solid pitcher, but that's not really the case when he plays on the road; his ERA is 4.15 as a visitor. That pales in comparison to Justin Verlander; Detroit is 8-2 in his home starts.
Tigers -1½ +145.

In case you haven't noticed, I've been betting on the Twins like crazy this week. It's time to do a 180. Why? They are playing on the road. No big deal? Well, Minnesota is 2-11 in its previous 13 road games in which neither Francisco Liriano nor Johan Santana started. Carlos Silva is obviously not included with those two, thanks to his 10.19 ERA away from the Homer Dome. The Twins are 1-6 in his road starts.
Indians -1½ +125.

As always, you can see the results on:
http://walterfootball.com/mlb2006_JUL.php

Good luck to everyone today.
 

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