-1.5'S For 7/26 YTD +10.39 units

slcgreg · Jul 26, 2006

Posting early since there are early games today. these are NOT the lines I will get; these are the overnight lines at Pinnacle. I will be playing the BODOG lines as soon as they are posted, and I will post what I get, but I may not get around to posting those before the games begin. With that in mind, here we go!

BOS +181, OAK +165
BAL +141, KC +187 (will NOT play this one if BAL drops below +140!)
CHC +210, NYM +139 (will ONLY play this one if NYM moves to +140 or more, which I think it will)
STL +160, COL +181
SF +145, WAS H+200 (Again, I will NOT play this if SF drops below +140)

All for today, and I will try to post the final lines that I get and what I play/don't play ASAP.

Good luck!!

Greg

Tulsa · Jul 26, 2006

SMOKE, thanks for the reply. What time period? I am going to assume for this season, but wanted to make sure....

Good luck, slcgreg. tulsa

SMOKE_ · Jul 26, 2006

Yeah it was for just this season. I could go back to past seasons but I dont think it would be to any benefit with this stat.

Tulsa · Jul 26, 2006

Well, no I didn't think you would have gone to past seasons but within a rolling six week or five week average was what I thought you might be doing...to find out what their 'local' trends are....

That may be the way I will go on that. Good luck and thanks.

tulsa

slcgreg · Jul 26, 2006

7/26 so far:
CHC +200, NYM +130 (26.63 % one-run games)
STL +150, COL +180 (31.31 % one-run games)
BOS +160, OAK +165 (29.15 % one-run games)

more to come as soon as lines are posted.

slcgreg · Jul 26, 2006

Smoke, Tulsa--
We should try to come up with a weighted system whereby we put more than one unit on the teams with the lwest % of one-run games, but what number do we use as the cutoff? is this even a good idea?

Greg

SMOKE_ · Jul 26, 2006

Slcgreg: did you ever recieve my e-mail? And I do think it can work using more than one unit. I think it would work if you took the low % teams like Twins and Jays. But if wagering more than one unit you would also have to take pitching matchups into account. Higher scoring games have a better chance to be decided by more than one run.

Tulsa · Jul 26, 2006

slcgreg, I'm not sure if that would work better or not.

However, the way I lean is it might allow to thin the number of plays each day and flat wager those fewer contests. tulsa

slcgreg · Jul 26, 2006

7/26 add-ons:
BAL +140, KC +175 (24.5 %)
SF +145, WASH +195 ( 26.5 % )

slcgreg · Jul 26, 2006

SMOKE_ said:
Slcgreg: did you ever recieve my e-mail? And I do think it can work using more than one unit. I think it would work if you took the low % teams like Twins and Jays. But if wagering more than one unit you would also have to take pitching matchups into account. Higher scoring games have a better chance to be decided by more than one run.

Smoke,
I did, and the % you see in parentheses beside each game is the % of one-run games between the two teams. I will be posting that by my plays from now on, and you cah use that to set your units bet per game. If I bet more than one unit per game, I wil annotate that as well.

Greg

SMOKE_ · Jul 26, 2006

All I am saying is that it might be more profitable to wager three or four games with lower % at more units. We can see that 30% of the games played are decided by one run. So if there are 10 games played a day you will lose both sides of three of them. Now if you only bet three of the games you have a good chance of profiting on all three of them.

slcgreg · Jul 26, 2006

If you hit the right ones, I wholeheartedly agree.

Still thinking about TRO/SEA and NY/TX for tonight

be back later

slcgreg · Jul 26, 2006

7/26 last set of plays:
NY +125, TX +185 28.64 %)
TOR +120, SEA +225 (19.5 %)

slcgreg · Jul 27, 2006

7/26 final
A complete ass-kicking. -5.6 units.

-1.5'S For 7/26 YTD +10.39 units

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