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Arizona –1½ +1.22 over PHILADELPHIA<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
The first ting to note here is the total, which is 9½ and that’s a pretty high number with Brandon Webb being one of the starters. Webb’s ERA of 2.51 is the second best ERA in the National League and it’s not often that a game involving him has a total this high. He’s 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA in his last four starts, giving up just four runs in 31 innings over that span and overall, in 154 innings he’s given up just nine homers. The man is the straight goods. So, the bookmakers are figuring that one of these teams, or both are going to score some runs tonight and we can assure you that they’re not figuring on the Phillies to do the bulk of the damage. Fact is, the D-Backs are in a zone, especially offensively, and it’s a rare night when this invader does not score at least six times and usually more. Arizona will face Jon Lieber, who has three wins in 14 starts to go along with his 5.76 ERA. He’s also 0-7 with a 6.26 ERA in as many starts versus the Snakes and things don’t figure to get any better tonight. D-Backs have won 11 of 14 and with one of the leagues premier pitchers going and with the way the D-Backs are swinging the bats, can this one go any other way? We think not. Play: Arizona –1½ +1.22 (Risking 1.5 units). <o:p></o:p>
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Cincinnati –1.02 over HOUSTON<o:p></o:p>
Speaking of hot teams, the Reds are quietly putting together a pretty nice run and perhaps the trade that sent Kearns and Lopez to the Nationals wasn’t so bad after all. Cinci has won eight of 11 since the break and overall this year they’ve beaten the Astros six out of seven games. Bronson Arroyo has been rock solid despite being stuck on nine wins for over a month. Thing is, he’s pitched good enough to win just about every start but has been the victim of poor run support and blown saves by his bullpen. The Reds have scored two or fewer runs in five of Arroyo's last six starts, and the bullpen has allowed 10 runs in 13.2 innings in that span, blowing two saves. Arroyo has a 1.13 ERA in his last three starts and on the road he’s 5-5 with a 3.61 ERA. He’s struck out 111 batters while walking just 33 in 145 innings of work and he couldn’t have handpicked a better opponent tonight. The Astros offense is a joke. They’ve been shut-out or held to a single run in eight of their past 23 games. If you can score four times on this host the chances are great that they’ll get beat. Andy Pettitte is pitching better but so what. The Reds are playing so much better than Houston is and no way are we going with the worst of it on the mound. Wrong side favored in this one. Play: Cincinnati –1.02 (Risking 1.53 units to win 1.5). <o:p></o:p>
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Florida +1.45 over ATLANTA<o:p></o:p>
Take Chipper Jones and Andrew Jones out of this equation and the Braves are not the same team. Not that they were that strong to begin with but they were hitting the lights out, until last night, that is. The Braves were cooled off last night and now that they’re offensive explosion has simmered we’ll feel pretty good about taking back a tag like this against them. (The reports are Chipper will go tonight and Andrew will not but those were the reports last night too and Chipper has a very nagging injury). Anyway, what’s being overlooked here is the fact that Josh Johnson leads the NL in ERA, having surrendered three runs or fewer in all but one of his 14 starts. He’s allowed just 77 hits in 97.2 innings and has 86 k’s over that span. Good chance that this one will remain close and that the pens will have an impact with John Smoltz opposing Johnson. You see, when you wager on the Braves, the last thing you want to hear when your sitting on the couch is, “There’s activity in the Braves bullpen.” All we know for sure is that the price here on the Marlins with Johnson going is an overlay and we’ll gladly take our chances. Play: Florida +1.45 (Risking 1.5 units). <o:p></o:p>
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TAMPA BAY +1.50 over L.A. Angels (12:15 PM)<o:p></o:p>
Huge overlay on the Devil Rays here, who most definitely have a good chance of winning this game. After a torrid run to get back into contention the Angels have cooled off dramatically. They’ve lost four of seven, which may not seem too bad but it is when you consider that they struggled against the Royals, lost last night to the Devil Rays and have been laboring at the plate against a slew of weak pitchers. Bartolo Colon has one win in nine starts and although he’s looked a bit better of late he’s still not even close to being worthy of this price. The Angels are laboring miserably at the plate and Garrett Anderson will very likely sit this one out. The Angels have been held to four runs or fewer in six of their past seven and again, it’s worth mentioning that the pitchers they faced over that stretch couldn’t crack the Braves bullpen. Casey Fossum has been solid at Tropicana Field with a 2-1 record in nine starts and an ERA of 3.33. Bottom line here, once again, is value and that’s all we look for and most definitely found it here. Play: Tampa Bay +1.50 (Risking 1.5 units).
 

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Nice Writeups, all look solid.
Tampa Bay backers have to be hoping they stick with Garrett, I think I hit lefties better than that stiff does.
 

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