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An identity crisis in the nation’s capital is threatening the security of the Washingon nationals and their bettors.

LIVAN HERNANDEZ todays starter against SAN FRANCISCO has turned from Mr. Reliable to Mr. Inconsistency over the course of the season and may not stop there. Five straight paydays over some relative lightweights could turn Hernandez into Mr. Overvalue when he meets the Giants at RFK.
“Now that he has won five straight games, but didn`t exactly stifle the competition, I suspect he will be overvalued for his next few starts,” says Covers Expert Shawn Torrey

Early lines had Hernandez as a pick versus Giants rookie Matt Cain.
Overnight action has moved Hernandez and the Nats to +100.
Pitching on a surgically repaired knee, which prevented Hernandez from following his usual offseason training regiment of kickboxing and spinning classes, Washington’s workhorse struggled to just one payday over his first nine outings.

He followed that by winning four of his next eight starts before embarking on his current hot streak.
However impressive, wins over Baltimore,Tampa Bay,Pittsburgh and Chicago won’t land Hernandez Player of the Month honors from Major League Baseball or sharp bettors. Neither will his 5.80 ERA and 1.65 WHIP; the latter being a telling stat sharp bettors use heavily when handicapping their plays.

“You have to look well beyond the win-loss record, especially given the roller coaster season he has had to this point,” says Torrey.
“Bottom line, his performance has simply been too inconsistent this season to get a good handle on whether on not to go with or against him.”
At times, including his last few starts, Hernandez has looked like his old self. Then, there are the moments, like two weeks ago versus Florida, when he surrenders seven runs in just 1 2/3 innings and the lingering effect of his offseason knee surgery rears its ugly head.
In those instances, Hernandez cannot push off the rubber as he’d like, thus affecting the speed of his fastball. If his heater doesn`t reach the upper 80’s, Hernandez is unable to set up his devastating repertoire of slow breaking pitches. "When he gets there, that means his lower half is working much better,” Nationals pitching coach Randy St. Claire told the Washington Post. “And everything falls into place
 

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