Can you arb these lines ( SL and Cubs) ?

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Rx God
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1st 5 over 5.5 -106
6th inning to end of game over 4 +110
Game under 10 +110

I'm thinking about what you could do with that. You have the kalves adding up to 9.5, game under 10, and plus money on 2 of the bets. I need to think some and invite help.
 

Rx God
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You can't lose all 3, 1-2 at the worst

Both halves over, you go 2-1

One half high scoring, the other low you can go 2-1

If it lands on 10 you likely go 1-1, but a chance of 6 runs in H1 for a win, push,push and a winner.
 

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No.

Even if all the odds were +110 you will making half bets on the half innings and a full bet on the game. If the game bet and a half innings bet loses then you have a loss. There are many ways for this to happen.

5 + 6 or more; 4 + 7 or more etc.
8 + 3.
 

Rx God
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OK, but if you wanted to bet the game over, wouldn't the halves be a better option ?

over 10 -120 ( Pin)

instead

1st 5 over 5.5 -106 (PIN)

and

H2 over 4 +110 (CRIS) or over 3.5 -120 ( TRO)

Aren't the halves a better option ?
 

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It is not a bad idea to take the two halves instead of the full total. But there are many chances that the full total is a winner but you end up about even betting two halves. So I guess it is a trade-off between risk and reward.
 

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Pinny has live-betting on this game and so does WSEX - you might want to take a small position and see how it goes for a buy-back at +juice and try to end up 2-1.

You'll have ot have various scenarios mapped out on a spreadsheet with a plan of action though because you won't have much time to make up your mind at Pinny.
 

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wrongturn said:
It is not a bad idea to take the two halves instead of the full total. But there are many chances that the full total is a winner but you end up about even betting two halves.

I agree, but OTOH there are many chances a full total is a loser while the two halves even up. So half betting is a more conservative strategy as well as giving a potentially bigger payout.
 

Rx God
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It was meant to be theoretical in general. Second half betting before the game starts seems to me to be something very few bettors would do although at least CRIS and Trojan offer it, probably some others also. Ability to bet H2 during B5th seems to me would draw more action, but only at CRIS ( to my knowledge), since Pinny wimped out.

I wound up taking only H1 over 5.5 -106.

Thanks for the input, it is something that caught my eye, and I was wondering what could be attempted with this unusual option. It must be hard to put a line on it, so possibly exploitable ?
 

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Perhaps from EV point of view, the 1H o5.5 -106 plus 2H o4 +110 is much better than full o10 -120. Not only the combined price is better, the combined number is o9.5 instead of 10 which will make 6,4 score a better result for betting halves.
 

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seems a superior method to betting that game as straight over to me as well, that's why I run it by other RX'ers... to get another opinion when not 100% sure of myself. Maybe I'm missing something ? I don't want to fall into a situation I don't foresee with something relatively new ( at least to me).

Stuff like this is what the boards are for,IMO.

The over 10 -120 doesn't look as good to me.
 

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Doug said:
I wound up taking only H1 over 5.5 -106.

Great call :103631605

I don't know a lot on Baseball, but it seems the starting pitchers have much more impact on the 1H than 2H. Without considering this difference, I believe the full total o10 -120 should have the same EV as 1H o5.5 -120 and 2H o4.5 -120 or some thing like that. So the prices you found on the halves are much better, imo.
 

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My play today ( Trojan)

SD and Colo is over 10 -113 ( Pinny)

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=7 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=TrGameEven2><TD>Ticket #793815
Jul-28 6:05:00 PM</TD><TD>INTERNET/-1</TD><TD>Jul-28 1:51:16 PM</TD><TD>
MLB</TD><TD>STRAIGHT BET
[1913] 1H SDG PADRES o5½EV ( C HENSLEY -R / B H KIM -R )</TD><TD>300/300</TD></TR><TR class=TrGameOdd3><TD>Ticket #793820
Jul-28 6:05:00 PM</TD><TD>INTERNET/-1</TD><TD>Jul-28 1:52:37 PM</TD><TD>
MLB</TD><TD>STRAIGHT BET
[2913] 2H SDG PADRES o3½-135 ( ACTION / ACTION )</TD><TD>135/100</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 

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