Taken from his site........
The Bucs are going down in 2006. UNDER 8.5 -160 (fine to play UNDER 8 -110) is my NFL 2006 Season Wins BEST BET. 4.80 units to win 3 units.
The Bucs are a generic mediocre team.
On offense, they have a mediocre QB in Simms, a very good Running Back in Cadillac Williams who wore down when he was injured part of last year, and their premier WR Joey Galloway turns 35 this year, and I expect his numbers to decline after a solid year last year. THE OL is suspect, despite an emphasis on the ground game, Buc QBs were sacked 41 times last year, and that number is going to go up in 2006.
On defense, their strength, they have many aging starts including Derrick Brooks, Ronde Barber, and Simeon Rice. The 'D' carried the Bucs in 2005 along with their ground game. They will be hard pressed to repeat that performance.
In 2005 the Bucs went 11-5, but they were total frauds. They somehow went 5-1 in the division, splitting vs. Carolina, and beating the Homeless Saints twice. Two three point wins (1 in OT) vs. the down Falcons got them to 5-1. The 2005 Nondivision schedule was ridiculously easy. They got the NFC North, including the Vikes right after the love boat disaster. They beat the Packers by 1 point, and won at home vs. Det by 4 getting them to 3-1 vs. the NFC North. They played the AFC EAST, and got Miami earlier in the year before the Dolphins sorted out their game. They went 2-2 vs. the AFC including a loss to the Jets. Yes, the Jets. They cheated Washington 36-35 in a bizarre home game, and they managed to lose to the 49ers. Yes, the 49ers. That's strong football.
Add it all up, and 2005 the Bucs had one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. Arguably they have the MOST DIFFICULT 2006 schedule in the league. In fact, THE BUCS LIKELY WILLL ONLY BE FAVORED BY 3 OR MORE IN 1 GAME ONLY THIS YEAR (11/5 vs. the Saints). Look for money to keep pouring in on the Ravens week 1 vs. them.
The Division games will not go nearly as well for them, especially with ATL and NO improved and with double revenge. I give them 3-3 in division.
They get the AFC NORTH, and the easiest game will be in the snow in Cleveland 12/24. 2-2 at best.
They get the NFC East, (Dallas,Wash, Philly, Gmen). Remember Washington will have this one circled after last year's debacle in Tampa. 2-2 at best. 1-3 very likely.
Their other two games are @ Chicago in the December cold, and they finish the year vs. Seattle. 1-1 at best.
Their "bye" come very early in the year, this is never a good thing. Thirteen of their sixteen games this year are vs. teams that are ALL favored to win over 8 games.
The Bucs won the SBowl in 2002. After this, they went 7-9, 5-11 and somehow went 11-6 last year. 2005 was the aberration. Like many SB champs, and premier teams that decline, the wheels come off as the veterans are never excited to play hard trying to get to 8-8 or 9-7. As soon as the year goes sour, the attitude collapses and the team tends to quit giving full effort.
Pencil these Bucs in for LAST in the division this year, 6-10. Look for a monster losing streak beginning 11/13 @ Carolina, 11/29 vs. Wash,
11/23 @ Dallas, 12/3 @pit, 12/10 vs. atl, 12/17 @ chic, 12/24 @ clev, and 12/31 vs. SEA
Note, the Bucs do get a few breaks in their schedule. Many of their home games have the visitor arriving on the 2nd game of roadtrips. Also, they get some early home games in the heat, which will help them. I'd prefer this to not be the case, but the planets never align perfectly.
The Bucs are going down in 2006. UNDER 8.5 -160 (fine to play UNDER 8 -110) is my NFL 2006 Season Wins BEST BET. 4.80 units to win 3 units.
The Bucs are a generic mediocre team.
On offense, they have a mediocre QB in Simms, a very good Running Back in Cadillac Williams who wore down when he was injured part of last year, and their premier WR Joey Galloway turns 35 this year, and I expect his numbers to decline after a solid year last year. THE OL is suspect, despite an emphasis on the ground game, Buc QBs were sacked 41 times last year, and that number is going to go up in 2006.
On defense, their strength, they have many aging starts including Derrick Brooks, Ronde Barber, and Simeon Rice. The 'D' carried the Bucs in 2005 along with their ground game. They will be hard pressed to repeat that performance.
In 2005 the Bucs went 11-5, but they were total frauds. They somehow went 5-1 in the division, splitting vs. Carolina, and beating the Homeless Saints twice. Two three point wins (1 in OT) vs. the down Falcons got them to 5-1. The 2005 Nondivision schedule was ridiculously easy. They got the NFC North, including the Vikes right after the love boat disaster. They beat the Packers by 1 point, and won at home vs. Det by 4 getting them to 3-1 vs. the NFC North. They played the AFC EAST, and got Miami earlier in the year before the Dolphins sorted out their game. They went 2-2 vs. the AFC including a loss to the Jets. Yes, the Jets. They cheated Washington 36-35 in a bizarre home game, and they managed to lose to the 49ers. Yes, the 49ers. That's strong football.
Add it all up, and 2005 the Bucs had one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. Arguably they have the MOST DIFFICULT 2006 schedule in the league. In fact, THE BUCS LIKELY WILLL ONLY BE FAVORED BY 3 OR MORE IN 1 GAME ONLY THIS YEAR (11/5 vs. the Saints). Look for money to keep pouring in on the Ravens week 1 vs. them.
The Division games will not go nearly as well for them, especially with ATL and NO improved and with double revenge. I give them 3-3 in division.
They get the AFC NORTH, and the easiest game will be in the snow in Cleveland 12/24. 2-2 at best.
They get the NFC East, (Dallas,Wash, Philly, Gmen). Remember Washington will have this one circled after last year's debacle in Tampa. 2-2 at best. 1-3 very likely.
Their other two games are @ Chicago in the December cold, and they finish the year vs. Seattle. 1-1 at best.
Their "bye" come very early in the year, this is never a good thing. Thirteen of their sixteen games this year are vs. teams that are ALL favored to win over 8 games.
The Bucs won the SBowl in 2002. After this, they went 7-9, 5-11 and somehow went 11-6 last year. 2005 was the aberration. Like many SB champs, and premier teams that decline, the wheels come off as the veterans are never excited to play hard trying to get to 8-8 or 9-7. As soon as the year goes sour, the attitude collapses and the team tends to quit giving full effort.
Pencil these Bucs in for LAST in the division this year, 6-10. Look for a monster losing streak beginning 11/13 @ Carolina, 11/29 vs. Wash,
11/23 @ Dallas, 12/3 @pit, 12/10 vs. atl, 12/17 @ chic, 12/24 @ clev, and 12/31 vs. SEA
Note, the Bucs do get a few breaks in their schedule. Many of their home games have the visitor arriving on the 2nd game of roadtrips. Also, they get some early home games in the heat, which will help them. I'd prefer this to not be the case, but the planets never align perfectly.
