two tonight w/analysis

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COLORADO/San Diego over 9½ -1.11
This ballpark has been nothing short of a nightmare for the Padre’s Woody Williams and we can assure you that he’s fully aware of his troubles here. The numbers he’s posted at this venue are so bad that it has to be psychologically damaging to him. Williams, in six career starts at Coors, has a 15.75 ERA, a .447 opponent batting average and 15 homers allowed in just 24 innings. His ERA is the highest for any pitcher with at least five starts in the ballpark's history. In his last start at Coors Field, a 20-1 Padres loss last Sept. 20, Williams allowed nine runs and nine hits in just one inning. The Padres are playing good ball at the moment and that should also assist us in getting over this number, as this invader is swinging some pretty hot bats right now. The Padres just finished a three-game sweep of the Dodgers in which they scored 24 times in that pitcher’s park and scored at least seven runs in all three games. This is a very beatable number and we’re on it. Play: Over 9½ -1.11 (Risking 2.22 units to win 2).
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Baltimore –1.02 over KANSAS CITY
The Royals resemble a minor league team these days and with both Mike Sweeney and Doug Mientkiewich on the rack one has to wonder where the runs are going to come from. With those two out, the Royals lineup is full of no-names and .240 hitters and if Rodrigo Lopez can’t breeze through this group he’s got more trouble than Bonds’ trainer. The Royals have scored three runs or less in five of its past eight games and that includes two 1-0 losses to the Red Sox. Jimmy Gobble has made only five starts this year and caught the Twins napping in one of them but the other four have been typical Gobble performances. This stiff had a 6.63 ERA in the minors last year and has posted a 9.51 ERA in his other four starts this season. As soon as Odalis Perez arrives from Los Angeles, Gobble will be out of the rotation and likely back riding buses. Anyway, with the state that this franchise is in and with all the injuries and uncertainties, the fact that they’re the chalk is ludicrous. We know Baltimore is pretty pathetic too but the Orioles have lots of talent and this may be the last time all year that we’ll be able to play against the Royals at such a cheap price. Do not miss this play. Play: Baltimore –1.02 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
 

Only way to get outta debt... TIME TO KILL THE MAN
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You Convinced Me, Im Down 1k This Week, Gonna Throw 5 On Each And Be Even By The End Of The Day, Thanks Buddy
 

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Padres went over easy but that KC/Orioles game was a pretty lucky cash.

I'll take it though. I always say that there's such a fine line between losing and winning and this game was a prime example of that.

No matter what sport you bet the games are about 80% luck and that's why it's so important to look for value and avoid laying big juice.

Thanks Doug and hope you "got out" Referee
 

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