WSOP Prop Plays

since july is the month i normally take off from betting to relax and recharge the batteries for the next 11 months - i rarely make any plays - but am here:

@ olympic

H2H matchups 1 person must cash for their to be a winner - both fail to cash - no action:

Greg Raymer -110 (Joe Hachem): EVERYONE and his mother is gunning for Joe. he is someone's "super bowl" and to KO him makes their day. Raymer's "target" isn't as big - even though he is

Allan Cunningham +100 (I am picking against Gus Hansen anytime I can get + money doing so. his style of play will get him in trouble at some point in time when he plays a hand he probably should have mucked)

Dan Harrington +110
Phil Hellmuth +110 (Both over Hansen - reason stated above)

Todd Brunson -110 (Over Dad - Doyle - NO WAY Doyle cashes here - Todd is playing well now - i LOVE this play - 2nd best play on the board)

Steve Dannenmann +120 (Varkonyi is a fluke who has ZERO prayer of cashing and no better than about 25% chance of getting thru Day 1. Dannenmann got REALLY lucky last year and i will be shocked if he cashes, too - but +120 against a fluke is worth it)

BEST BET ALERT

Will Phil Ivey AND Phil Hellmuth make it past Day 1: YES -135 (we know Hellmuth won't show up till halfway thru the day and Ivey is solid. will be SHOCKED if this play loses)

I also see Ivey +19000 to win it all. dumb play - i know - but put $10 on him to wn it all and pray it becomes almost $2k

see all of you again for a longer period of time in a few weeks

i STRONGLY suggest EVERYONE take a break from betting for an extended period of time. it will do WONDERS for your mental state of mind. i feel so calm and relaxed now - unreal

Like your matchup pics Winky.
Caveat for everyone: There will be over 8000 people, so any bet you make should be a recreational bet as this tournament has turned into the crapshoot of all crapshoots.

Winky, I like the plays and angles.

10% of the field of the main event will cash. That will be between 750 and 800 people. You will most likely have to survive 3-4 coin flips just to cash. You will have no action on most of those matchups because cashing is not likely even for the best players.

Hansen and Harrington fail to make it past Day 1 meaning that play is no action but now Cunningham and Hellmuth plays can't lose - only win or no action

when all is said and done will be shocked if more than 2 H2H plays get graded

Glad to see you've given up the weather Forecasting Job