CWS/Balt. Total Play

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Over 10 1/2, 4 units

Vazquez's games have seen alot of runs scored recently. His last 7 starts have averaged 15+ runs each. Six of his last seven starts have gone over 10 1/2 runs. He gave up 6 earned runs prior to that, and there were 9 and 14 runs scored in his two starts prios to that one. A recent start in Chicao against Baltimore was an 11-8 CWS win.

Bruce Chen has just been horrible for Baltimore this year. With an 0-6 record and an ERA of 7.09, it's easy to see why he's been in and out of the starting rotation. His last appearance against the White Sox was a 13-0 final. This is his first start since may, 31st. He has a 5.28 ERA vs. Chicago in his career.

A hot humid day should also help some balls fly out of the park. Good Luck.
 

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SF/Pitt Over 9 1/2, 2 units

It would probably be a good idea to bet any game Zach Duke starts to go over, until one doesn't. His last 6 starts have all gone over 9 1/2 runs and have averaged 13+ runs in each start. He has a horrible 5.51 ERA, yet he's 7-9. This means he's giving up runs AND his team is scoring for him.

Morris hasn't been pitching too well either of late. His last 4 starts have averaged 12+ runs. Three of his last four starts have cleared today's 9 1/2 total. In fact, in his last two starts, he's given up 7 and 6 earned runs by himself.

The only reason this isn't a larger play is that the last start each pitcher has made against the other team went under. They were both in San Fran though.
 

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Fla/Phi OVER 10 1/2, 2 units

It's not often you see a pitcher with any amount of innings pitched have a winning record with a 6.18 ERA, especially in the NL. Well, Ryan Madison does. His last two starts have totaled 27 runs. His last 4 home starts have averaged well over 12 runs per game.

For Florida, things even get worse. Moehler has been horrible this year AND he's coming off the DL. His last 5 starts average 12+ runs per game. he has an ERA of 6.84. You'd think with that ERA he'd be 1-11, but he's actually only 5-7. Just like Madison, he does get some run support.

These two teams combined for 16 in game 1 of the double header, and I think game 2 will be similar.

Good Luck.
 

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