Boxslayer's MLB Pick of the Day - Sunday

9-6, +11.46

2* Houston Astros -1 -110

Yankees -1.5 was an easy winner on Friday.

Today I like Clemens to dispose of the D-Backs. Don't want to lay -150+ so I'm going to lay the -1. I do expect a tight win, 5-3, 6-3, so I am laying -1 to reduce my juice, but not -1.5, especially on a home team.

1) Clemens has enough starts under his belt where I feel comfortable betting him. I havnt bet on this guy yet because you cant expect him to just pop in halfway through a year and be in, well...... mid-season form. But with 8 starts under his belt, I'm comfortable betting on him now, especially seeing that he's still Roger Clemens, at least statistically, with a typical sub 3.00 ERA.
2) I'm not a big Miguel Batista fan. His 9-5 W-L record is deceiving to me. He doesnt have a good K:BB ratio. He doesnt have a good K:IP ratio. His ERA is approaching 5.00. He's in a tough spot here against Clemens in Houston. You cant make mistakes when Clemens is on the other side. And Batista allows too many batted balls for my taste, and not enough strikeouts, which means he'll need balls batted at people to get out of jams.
3) Arizona has just been too inconsistent this year. Ever since the steroid scandal happened with Grimsley, this team has just been up and down. I dont really feel comfortable betting on this team, even with Webb on the mound, and I love betting against them, especially in this spot.
4) I love Houston in rubber games. Houston is a team that always does it quietly. They dont draw a lot of attention to themselves. They dont go on big winning streaks. They are usually not at the top of the race in the beginning of the season, and before you know it, they are playing in the World Series and you are wondering.....how? This is how. Houston wins rubber games. Especially with Clemens on the mound. I think this team realizes they can't afford to lose anymore series, and if they want to get back into and stay in this playoff race, they need to start putting some series wins together, and what better team to do it against than the D-Backs, what better pitcher to have on the mound than Clemens, and what better venue than your own backyard.

Good Luck

Love the pick, also great numbers in this one Clemens has dominated AZ hitters and Houston hitters have hit Batista well.
G/L

Good luck and thanks for the work and play! tulsa

Also, you should be writing for a paper or something! tulsa

Thanks, Tulsa.

Good luck on your plays today. Have a great Sunday.

Tough way to lose when Qualls and Lidge combine to completely screw the game over. They must be having a lovers fight so they weren't focused on the game.

Awesome collapse by the 'Stros.

I guess looking on the bright side of things, of my past 7 games I have picked, my only 2 losses have been late inning debacles. 1st the Brewers 2 run 9th blown by Turnbow, and now the Astros collapse.

May have a play for tonights Sunday Night Baseball in this thread.

Hope to see your pick. I've got a lean on the side but I'm still waiting to see.

4* Angels/Red Sox under 9 -104

1) Last Night's Game set the tone. Besides being a believer in the first game of the series sets the tone, I'm also a believer that late-inning action from the night before sets the tone for the next game. Last night, we had an extra inning tight 7-6 win for Boston. Runs were at a premium late in that game, and I hope that carries over to tonight.

2) Sunday Night Baseball. Public loves betting over and the favorites as a general rule. Public action is always heavier on national games, such as Sunday Night Baseball. The books know this. First two games combined to go over 10 runs. So what do the books do for this game? Set the line at 9, and make you lay juice for the under on top of it.

3) Schilling vs. Lackey. Two of the hottest pitchers in the bigs, battling for the rubber match series win. Two veteran teams. This should be a strategic low scoring game, 1 or 2 runs make the difference.

4) I don't like the Angels offense. Just a personal thing. These guys dont score much. They dont play gorilla ball. They need to string together hits to score runs. They rarely get that big blast homerun to break a game open.

5) No let downs from either pitcher. Schilling pitching on Sunday Night at home in front of this rabid Red Sox crowd? Lackey going to Fenway to take on Schilling for the rubber game? No way either of these guys take the other team lightly. Both should bring their A Game tonight. Good pitching stops good hitting.

6) Bullpens - Papelbon and K-Rod. Nuff said.

7) History - Schilling with massive success at home, and against the Angels. Lackey is one of the hottest pitchers in baseball. Should be a tight battle.

Good Luck.