I posted a write-up in my thread on this game. I'll just copy and paste below.
Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Game Total Over 9.5 (-113) ... 2.26 Unit / 2.00 Unit
First 5 Innings Over 5 (-106) ... 1.06 Unit / 1.00 Unit
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Entering today's matchup are two starting pitchers who have been struggling all year, especially their last few outings. Tim Hudson enters today's game sporting a 5.25 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in 23 starts. Shawn Chacon counters with a 6.58 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP in 11 starts.
Tim Hudson enters today trying to shake off his last outing against the New York Mets. In that game, he lasted 5 2/3 Innings, giving up 9 earned runs. In fact, in his last 4 games, he has averaged 5 innings per outing, giving up 21 earned runs (10.10 ERA). Hudson comes into today averaging 15.72 pitches per inning. Of the 91 runs he has allowed this year, 81 (90%) of them have came in his first 75 pitches. So in his 23 starts, he has allowed an average of 3.52 runs in his first 75 pitches, which of course goes towards my first 5 innings play.
Shawn Chacon, recently acquired by the Yankees, enters today with an equally unimpressive last outing. In that game, he allowed 5 earned runs in 2 1/3 innings. His last actual start was July 4, as he has been doing more relieving duty as of late. He has relieved 11 innings of his 63 innings this year. In his start, though, against the Indians, he went 1.1 innings, allowing 7 earned runs. Chacon comes into today averaging 18.7 pitches per inning. So given that average, he will be around 93 pitches after 5 innings. Given the fact he's been a reliever we will give him 75 pitches in 5 innings. Of the 54 runs he has allowed this year, 49 (91%) of them have came in his first 75 pitches. Of the 42 runs he has allowed starting this year, 24 (64%) have came in his first 3 innings pitched.
Atlanta enters today's game averaging 5.14 runs per game. On the road this year, they have averaged 5.48 runs per game, going 32-24 against the over / under in away games. Pittsburgh enters today's game averaging 4.43 runs per game. At home this year, they have average 4.86 runs per game, going 28-25 against the over / under at home. Umpiring today's game is Reynolds. He is 12-8 this year versus the over / under; however, he is 5-0 versus the over his last 5 games, allowing 7 walks and 10.11 runs per game.