-Newman- MLB Thursday With Analysis

As usual, just updating the record first ...

Picks with my second attempt at small write-ups will come later ...

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August 2, 2006 MLB Results
Picks : 2-0 (+4.06 Units)
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Year To Date "Picks" : 106-120-6 (-28.635 Units)
Year To Date "Parlays" : 12-44 (-15.79 Units)

---------- "Picks" Breakdown ----------

Versus Moneyline : 46-45 (-0.915 Units)
Versus Spread : 13-23 (-15.96 Units)
Game Over / Under : 27-36-4 (-13.89 Units)
Team Total : 19-15-2 (+2.13 Units)
Props : 1-1 (+0.00 Units)

---------- "Units" Breakdown ----------

1 Unit Plays : 67-85-5 (-26.455 Units)
2 Unit Plays : 39-35-1 (-2.18 Units)
3 Unit Plays : 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
4 Unit Plays : 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
5 Unit Plays : 0-0 (+0.00 Units)

---------- "Plays" Breakdown ----------

Picks 0-100 : 36-59-5 (-32.395 Units)
Picks 101-200: 56-44-0 (+10.42 Units)
Picks 201-300: 14-17-1 (-8.66 Units)

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Good Luck To All Today !!!​

14-17-1 (-6.66 Units)
​

Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Game Total Over 9.5 (-113) ... 2.26 Unit / 2.00 Unit
First 5 Innings Over 5 (-106) ... 1.06 Unit / 1.00 Unit

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Entering today's matchup are two starting pitchers who have been struggling all year, especially their last few outings. Tim Hudson enters today's game sporting a 5.25 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in 23 starts. Shawn Chacon counters with a 6.58 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP in 11 starts.

Tim Hudson enters today trying to shake off his last outing against the New York Mets. In that game, he lasted 5 2/3 Innings, giving up 9 earned runs. In fact, in his last 4 games, he has averaged 5 innings per outing, giving up 21 earned runs (10.10 ERA). Hudson comes into today averaging 15.72 pitches per inning. Of the 91 runs he has allowed this year, 81 (90%) of them have came in his first 75 pitches. So in his 23 starts, he has allowed an average of 3.52 runs in his first 75 pitches, which of course goes towards my first 5 innings play.

Shawn Chacon, recently acquired by the Yankees, enters today with an equally unimpressive last outing. In that game, he allowed 5 earned runs in 2 1/3 innings. His last actual start was July 4, as he has been doing more relieving duty as of late. He has relieved 11 innings of his 63 innings this year. In his start, though, against the Indians, he went 1.1 innings, allowing 7 earned runs. Chacon comes into today averaging 18.7 pitches per inning. So given that average, he will be around 93 pitches after 5 innings. Given the fact he's been a reliever we will give him 75 pitches in 5 innings. Of the 54 runs he has allowed this year, 49 (91%) of them have came in his first 75 pitches. Of the 42 runs he has allowed starting this year, 24 (64%) have came in his first 3 innings pitched.

Atlanta enters today's game averaging 5.14 runs per game. On the road this year, they have averaged 5.48 runs per game, going 32-24 against the over / under in away games. Pittsburgh enters today's game averaging 4.43 runs per game. At home this year, they have average 4.86 runs per game, going 28-25 against the over / under at home. Umpiring today's game is Reynolds. He is 12-8 this year versus the over / under; however, he is 5-0 versus the over his last 5 games, allowing 7 walks and 10.11 runs per game.

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There's my only pick of the early games anyways. Depending how this game goes, more picks might come later. The way my luck is, if I win this early game, I'm not going to risk it. I 'm leaning towards New York / Florida Over 8, Boston / Cleveland Over 9.5, and possibly my normal group of 3 2-Team parlays.

Good Luck To All Tomorrow !!!​

New York Mets @ Florida Marlins
Game Total Over 8 (+102) ... 1.00 Unit / 1.02 Unit
Florida : Team Total Over 3 (-113) ... 3.39 Unit / 3.00 Unit

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Just a few things to talk about in this game which features Pedro Martinez, sporting a 3.59 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP, and Dontrelle Willis, sporting a 4.27 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP.

First, a thing that caught my eye was the home / away stats from these 2 pitchers. Pedro enters today's game, allowing 4.87 runs per game in 10 away games, going 7-2-1 against the O/U. Dontrelle enters today's game, allowing 6.60 runs per game in 10 home games, going 8-2 against the O/U.

New York as a team, enters today's game averaging 5.26 runs per game and 61-41 versus the O/U. On the road, they average 5.85 runs per game, going 35-19 versus the O/U. New York is currently 5-0 versus the O/U in their last 5 games, as well as 8-1 during their last 9 games, averaging 6.22 runs per game during that stretch.

Florida as a team, enters today's game averaging 4.65 runs per game and 61-44 versus the O/U. At home, they average 4.37 runs per game, going 29-21 versus the O/U. Florida is currently 6-0 versus the O/U in their last 6 games, averaging 6 runs per game during that stretch. And as far as the Team Total over 3 play ... Since the All-Star Break, Florida has failed to score 3 or more runs only 5 times out of 21 (24%) games. In fact, of their 107 regular season games, they have failed to score 3 or more times in 25 (23%) of those games. New York, on the other hand has allowed their opponent to score 3 or more times in 79 of their 106 regular season games (79%). So, in the end, Florida has scored 3 or more in 77% of their regular season games and New York has alllowed their opponents to score 3 or more in 79% of their games.

Umpiring in today's matchup is Mr. Reilly. Reilly is only 11-10 versus the O/U this year; however, he is averaging 5.48 walks and 9.65 runs per game. Last year, he was 21-16 versus the O/U, averaging 6.45 walks and 10.61 runs per game.

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Don't know if my write-ups are on par to other posters standards or if I'm not looking at the right aspects of the game when capping, but I'll give 'em a try anyhow. Like I said in a previous post, I'm still looking at Boston/Cleveland Over 9.5.

Best Of Luck To All Today !!!​

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August 3, 2006 Full MLB Card
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New York Mets @ Florida Marlins
Game Total Over 8 (+102) ... 2.00 Unit / 2.04 Unit
Florida : Team Total Over 3 (-113) ... 3.39 Unit / 3.00 Unit

Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Game Total Over 9.5 (-113) ... 2.26 Unit / 2.00 Unit
First 5 Innings Over 5 (-106) ... 1.06 Unit / 1.00 Unit


--- Parlay ---

Detroit : Game -1.5 (-114)
Florida : Team Total Over 3 (-113)
1.00 Unit / 2.54 Unit

Boston / Cleveland : Game Total Over 9.5 (-110)
New York / Florida : Game Total Over 8 (+102)
1.00 Unit / 2.87 Unit

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There's the full card for me today.

Once again, Best Of Luck To All Today On Their Cards !!!​

Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Game Total Over 9.5 (-113) ... 2.26 Unit / 2.00 Unit (LOSER)
First 5 Innings Over 5 (-106) ... 1.06 Unit / 1.00 Unit (LOSER)​

What a damn game ... 3 runs scored in the first inning, 2 runs scored in the last 8 innings. 26 total people left on base between the 2 teams. My analysis was right for Hudson, as he lasted 6 innings, giving up 3 runs. My analysis for Chacon was halfway right, as he had 79 pitches in 5 innings pitched; however, I was way off in that he pitched a lights out game. Oh well, life goes on, I guess.

And, time for a chaser bet, of sorts ...

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Detroit Tigers @ Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Detroit : Game -1 (-142) ... 2.84 Unit / 2.00 Unit

Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels
Texas : Team Total Over 3.5 (-113) ... 1.13 Unit / 1.00 Unit

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Going to save the write-ups until I actually start winning consistently. Also, really don't believe many people are frequenting my thread, let alone, reading my analysis.

Best of luck to all in the night cap !!!​