Results from the Iceman "Line Movement System" (Anti- Steam)

Iceman · Aug 5, 2006

Stated posting this since Monday and have had a below average week(losing 10 units). Must be the whole posting jinx thing

uppy: . Anyway this is still a project in the making and I won close to 40 units in July with it and I am still up.

Alot of players have asked me to break it down for them and here is what I have came up with (thankfully I did this):

SIDES= over +18 units, this was orginally the only anti steam plays I was going to use and it has been the most successfull.

TOTALS= lost over 3 units, never really shown much poetential and I have dropped it. Just seems to vilotale. Would love to hear some suggestions as to how to bet line movement on totals. Just can' get a feeling for it and don't feel confident with it.

RUNLINES= close to even but has struggled last few days. May up the number on this and make it 15% or so. Most likely stick with it becasue it goes hand in hand with sides. If one of the numbers drop than the other usually do.

PARLAYS= Didn't want to talk about these in the last thread to further complicate the matter but they have generated close to +12 units for me and I never realizied to last nite. Just beting a half a unit per play and taking all ROAD DOGS/OVER and HOME DOGS/UNDER on my ant- steam side plays. Learned this method from anothe poster and really like it.

Overall this proves how record keeping is so important. Still looking how to handle the whole totals thing. Feel very confident on sides as they have won almost 75% of the nites

Eagle Eye if you are reading this I haven't forgot about you and will get with you later.

passingthewind · Aug 5, 2006

So basically Ice, you take the early morning line and compare it with the evening line and if it is a 10% swing, which the public pushes, you bet the side the book has.

Doug · Aug 5, 2006

Ice: Are you tracking the parlays as to which does better, road dog and over, or home dog and under ? I usually only play some of them, and mainly stick to the odd and a half total. I like the road dog and over 9.5 best, rarely take the under parlay.

EagleEye+ · Aug 5, 2006

Iceman, I'm still here...call when you're ready....
Eagle

docslep · Aug 5, 2006

passingthewind said:
So basically Ice, you take the early morning line and compare it with the evening line and if it is a 10% swing, which the public pushes, you bet the side the book has.

this is the part of the theory that doesn't make sense. why would taking the team the line is moving towards be the "side the bookie has"? this would be the side the bookie wants you to take, right? it is theoretically the side that the bookie thinks will lose, is'nt it? :icon_conf

Doug · Aug 5, 2006

docslep said:
this is the part of the theory that doesn't make sense. why would taking the team the line is moving towards be the "side the bookie has"? this would be the side the bookie wants you to take, right? it is theoretically the side that the bookie thinks will lose, is'nt it?

Nyy -130
Bos +120

moves to

NYY -150
Bos +140

people bet NYY, book needs Boston, in theory. Ice bets Boston.

Iceman · Aug 5, 2006

Doug said:
Nyy -130
Bos +120

moves to

NYY -150
Bos +140

people bet NYY, book needs Boston, in theory. Ice bets Boston.

exactly. The book would expose heavy on NYY and would want some Boston take back putting me and the book on the same side.

Iceman · Aug 5, 2006

passingthewind said:
So basically Ice, you take the early morning line and compare it with the evening line and if it is a 10% swing, which the public pushes, you bet the side the book has.

bingo but you can bet it earlier in day like I did Cincinatti yesterday when it never wen back down to bet of you missed early afternoon

docslep · Aug 5, 2006

how's fla. and bosox? :103631605

maidenguy · Aug 5, 2006

Ice, I mentioned this in another thread but on the RL plays, it seems that almost all the plays will be on the -1 1/2 side and we know that laying 1 1/2 runs is a big ?(just ask Cutter). Going to 15% you will definetely get less plays which could be a good thing, I guess we have to see how it holds up at the end of the year.

oldschool · Aug 5, 2006

I went 3-1 on my anti-steam plays for last nite, and was lucky to do so. I thought the steam on Atl (cinn had lost 5 in a row) and on CWS (TOR had lost 5 in a row) "made sense". I could see no good reason for the steam on Clev and on TB (worse teams and worse pitchers)! As I have said before, when the public steams against hot teams and/or hot pitchers, the public usually loses.

Eagle Eye, I use team and pitching stats to determine when the steam "makes sense" and when it doesn't. Yes, I am always trying to improve things! I would like to find a system that hit 57-60%! Iceman's college basketball system hit a very high 57% or so, and I hope to look closely at iceman's basketball plays.

I use the RL by comparing Pinnacle's RL with my "square" books' RL. When the square RL is "off" by 10 or more points, I bet with Pinnacle. I always end up with dogs on my RL bets. Good luck today!

Iceman · Aug 5, 2006

maidenguy said:
Ice, I mentioned this in another thread but on the RL plays, it seems that almost all the plays will be on the -1 1/2 side and we know that laying 1 1/2 runs is a big ?(just ask Cutter). Going to 15% you will definetely get less plays which could be a good thing, I guess we have to see how it holds up at the end of the year.

I am not sure if there would be more -1.5 than +1.5. Seemed close to 50/50. Not sure.

Iceman · Aug 5, 2006

old school said:
I went 3-1 on my anti-steam plays for last nite, and was lucky to do so. I thought the steam on Atl (cinn had lost 5 in a row) and on CWS (TOR had lost 5 in a row) "made sense". I could see no good reason for the steam on Clev and on TB (worse teams and worse pitchers)! As I have said before, when the public steams against hot teams and/or hot pitchers, the public usually loses.

Eagle Eye, I use team and pitching stats to determine when the steam "makes sense" and when it doesn't. Yes, I am always trying to improve things! I would like to find a system that hit 57-60%! Iceman's college basketball system hit a very high 57% or so, and I hope to look closely at iceman's basketball plays.

I use the RL by comparing Pinnacle's RL with my "square" books' RL. When the square RL is "off" by 10 or more points, I bet with Pinnacle. I always end up with dogs on my RL bets. Good luck today!

Old school,
Can you give me an example of a RL?

Something I also like do is find scalpable lines(I have a scalping software that helps me) generally the night before or early morning with Pinny. Last night for example Pinny had Florida -143 and Sportsbetting.com had their opponenet LA Dodgers +143 so I bet LA +143. Now today I want to go back over the top on Florida(for 2 units) if it drop 10% (which is already very close and I haven't really line shopped).

So if I can get Florida -125 or so for 2 units (-250/+200) and already have LA Dodgers -100/+143. So if Florida loses I end up losing $107. So I am playing a -125 favorie for -107 and that is a steal. If Florida wins I win 1 unit

Iceman · Aug 5, 2006

OS,
Probably a good idea to use some filters or capping a little to tighten this up. I know when Konerko and Thome sat the other day the Chicago line dropped quickly. It maybe smart to add a little common sense to this. :103631605

oldschool · Aug 5, 2006

iceman, today I have LAD RL at -160 (pinnacle at -171), ARIZ RL at -105 (pinnacle at -115), WASH RL at -158 (Pinnacle at -168), BALT ML at +200 (Pinnacle at +185), and TB ML at +125 (pinnacle at +110). Good luck!

docslep · Aug 5, 2006

old school said:
iceman, today I have LAD RL at -160 (pinnacle at -171), ARIZ RL at -105 (pinnacle at -115), WASH RL at -158 (Pinnacle at -168), BALT ML at +200 (Pinnacle at +185), and TB ML at +125 (pinnacle at +110). Good luck!

funny, wagerline has florida as a play ml :icon_conf

oldschool · Aug 5, 2006

I do not use the RL to fade steam. I use it when Pinnacle's RL varies by 10 points or more from the RL at one of my "square" books. Yes, sometimes I end up with opposite teams on the RL and ML (yesterday I had CWS on the RL and TOR on the ML; I also had CLEV on the RL and DET on the ML). I know it's confusing, but I'm betting against steam and against my "square" books. Good luck!

oldschool · Aug 6, 2006

The public bet every favorite down from Pinnacle's opening overnight line (except for NYY who closed 1 point higher)! I bet against the steam on ATL, CLEV, PITT, LAD, STL, SF, and WASH. Thanks to another meltdown by Clev, the anti-steam plays go 5-2. The steam on ATL, CLEV, STL, and SF made no sense as the public was betting colder teams with worse starters. What kind of fools bet SF down from +104 to -115? SF had lost 10 of 11 games, and had a much inferior starter! It's exactly like the NFL last year: favorites kept winning, yet the "sharps" kept betting dogs. Pinnacle must be making a fortune!

CarolinaKid · Aug 6, 2006

the top money play was on the dodgers and it was a easy winner,was away most of the day and i bang ls hard but was not close to a computer to post.the steam just like everything else runs in course of win and lose and give it the middle of next week and the steam will kick ass for a few days again,then the dogs etc.....ck ps there are steam plays each day but finding the true steam move is the key

oldschool · Aug 6, 2006

carolinakid, your post was almost incoherent! If you go by Pinnacle's line moves there was more money on STL, SF, and CLEV. Books move their line when they get unbalanced action. The more action they get, the more they move their line. The myth of "sharp" steam is hard to overcome. Bettors want to believe that some "sharp" knows more than the books! Don't bet on it!