-Newman- Sunday MLB Picks

-Newman- · Aug 6, 2006

Just Updating The Record First ...

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August 5, 2006 MLB Results
Picks : 0-1 (-2.18)
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Year To Date "Picks" : 110-125-6 (-31.715 Units)

---------- "Picks" Breakdown ----------

Versus Moneyline : 46-45 (-0.915 Units)
Versus Spread : 15-25 (-19.72 Units)
Over / Under : 27-39-4 (-18.21 Units)
Team Total : 21-15-2 (+7.13 Units)
Props : 1-1 (+0.00 Units)

---------- "Units" Breakdown ----------

1 Unit Plays : 69-87-5 (-27.255 Units)
2 Unit Plays : 40-38-1 (-7.46 Units)
3 Unit Plays : 1-0 (+3.00 Units)
4 Unit Plays : 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
5 Unit Plays : 0-0 (+0.00 Units)

---------- "Plays" Breakdown ----------

Picks 0-100 : 36-59-5 (-32.395 Units)
Picks 101-200: 56-44-0 (+10.42 Units)
Picks 201-300: 18-22-1 (-9.74 Units)

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Getting back on my "normal" losing slide again ...

Picks will be coming later !!!

-Newman- · Aug 6, 2006

Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds

First 5 Innings : Atlanta -.5 (-112) ... 2.24 Unit / 2.00 Unit

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In today's match-up between the Braves and the Reds, enters the 39-year-old John Smoltz against the the 27-year-old Kyle Lohse.

Smoltz comes to Cincinnati today sporting a 3.45 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 23 season starts, averaging 6.70 innings per outing. Since the All-Star break, he hasn't showed much slowing down, either. In his 4 starts since the All-Star Break, he is 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, averaging 7.25 innings per start. He has also already faced the Reds this year, going 8 innings, allowing 1 Earned Run and striking out 10 in a 4-1 win on July 8.

Lohse enters today with completely opposite results. Lohse hasn't even started a game since May 16, as he's been relieving since. In those 8 early starts; however, he is 2-4, sporting a 8.92 ERA and a 1.98 WHIP, averaging 4.79 innings per start.

So in playing the first 5 innings, I'm pretty much just narrowing the match-up down to Smoltz and Lohse. In Smoltz's first 45 pitches of work, he has allowed a combined 21 runs off of 229 batters faced. Or simply put, 1 run for every 10.9 batters faced in his first 45 pitches of work. In Lohse's first 45 pitches of work, he has allowed a combined 42 runs off of 163 batters faced. In other words, 1 run for every 3.88 batters faced in his first 45 pitches.

Atlanta is coming in today averaging 5.41 runs per game on the road in 59 games this year. Umpiring today is Ted Barret, who in his last 5 games, has allowed 5.87 walks per game and 12.13 runs per game. Add Lohse in the mix, with his "starting" 1.98 WHIP and his last start of May 16, and this should at least spell an Atlanta victory after the first 5 innings.

Prediction For First 5 Innings
Atlanta 4 - Cincinnati 2

mofome · Aug 6, 2006

looks familiar

good writes, bol

-Newman- · Aug 6, 2006

Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals

Minnesota : Game ML (-129) ... 2.58 Unit / 2.00 Unit

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Today's matchup features the Minnesota Twins going to Kansas City to face the Royals.

Minnesota enters todays game with 28-year-old Mike Smith on the mound. Smith was acquired on August 2 for insurance to Brad Radke and his nagging shoulder problem. Radke ended up pitching on Thursday, allowing Smith to start today and forcing Liriano to a Monday start. There's not much to know about Smith except that he went 9-4 with Rochester, sporting a 3.52 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 125 innings of work. His last MLB pitching occured with the Toronto Bluejays in 2002, where he was 0-3, with a 6.67 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP in 35.3 innings of work.

Even given Mike Smith's major league "un"experience, today's starter for the Royals isn't much better. Odalis Perez, who started the year with the Dodgers, enters the game with 9 starts and 21.33 innings of relief duty. In those 9 starts, Perez is 3-3, sporting a 8.14 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP, averaging 4.66 innings per outing.

Minnesota comes into today's games with their bats on fire. During the first 3 games of this series, Minnesota has outscored Kansas City 30-10. With all signs pointing towards a short Odalis Perez outing, and given the fact the Royals bullpen has already pitched 16.66 innings during the first 3 games of this series, this could be another lop-sided victory in Game 4.

Prediction
Minnesota 7 - Kansas City 4

-Newman- · Aug 6, 2006

Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres

Washington : Team Total Over 3.5 (-120) ... 2.40 Unit / 2.00 Unit
Washington : Game ML (+148) ... 1.00 Unit / 1.48 Unit

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Washington comes into San Diego today with Livan Hernandez taking the mound against Jake Peavy.

Hernandez comes into today starting to find a groove after a medicore first half. Hernandez's last outing against San Francisco, he went 7 innings, allowing 6 hits and 1 earned run. Since the All-Star break, Hernandez has had 4 starts, going 3-0, sporting a 3.46 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP.

Peavy, on the other hand, comes into today's game still unable to find a real groove. Even given his last strong outing against the Astros (7 IP, 1 ER), his numbers after the All-Star break are unimpressive. In 4 starts, he is 1-3, sporting a 6.38 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP. And like I said, that's even with a strong outing against Houston included. Without that Houston game, he is 0-3, with a 8.48 ERA and a 1.94 WHIP.

Umpiring today is Paul Emmel, who is 15-6 against the O/U this year. He has allowed an average of 7.37 walks and 10.32 runs per game so far this year. Washington enters today's game averaging 4.57 run per game on the season, and 5.8 runs during their last 2 series. My main play is of course the Washington Team Total, but with a struggling Peavy and Hernandez finding a decent groove, I believe the Washington ML +158 holds long-term value.

Prediction
Washington 5 - San Diego 4

-Newman- · Aug 6, 2006

August 6, 2006 MLB Picks

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August 6, 2006 MLB Full Card
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Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds
First Five Innings : Atlanta -.5 (-112) ... 2.24 Unit / 2.00 Unit

Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals
Minnesota : Game ML (-129) ... 2.58 Unit / 2.00 Unit

Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres
Washington : Team Total Over 3.5 (-120) ... 2.40 Unit / 2.00 Unit
Washington : Game ML (+148) ... 1.00 Unit / 1.48 Unit

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I hope my write-ups can somewhat help those few that stop in to view them.

As usual, best of luck to all today on their cards !!!

DRSGirl · Aug 6, 2006

my homework also saids thr braves have a victory... BOL TO ALL

-Newman- · Aug 6, 2006

Thank you DRS Girl !!!

Also, as a sidenote, I have been reading that some posters don't agree with write-up's in general in that it's more a waste of time. Just want to know other posters possible opinions on that, as I probably won't spend the time to write-up plays if a large consensus of the players don't read them ... And yes, I know the fact that I am losing my ass doesn't help my case, but still would like to know .

-Newman- · Aug 6, 2006

ucking:

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets
First 5 Innings : New York -.5 (-114) ... 1.14 Unit / 1.00 Unit
First 5 Innings : Game Total Over 4.5 (-132) ... 1.32 Unit / 1.00 Unit
New York : Game -1 (-107) ... 2.14 Unit / 2.00 Unit