NFL is here again and with it will come the usual Greenhorn posts by cloggers bringing up old chestnuts from a bygone Era. So lets do a review while things are quiet and before the barrage begins.
HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE:
One the geeks like getting into because with the Stats you can make it anything you want, I even read more than One Capper saying The Steelers had a Negative HFA last year, probably true but are you going to give them no points for the TTs. The other argument is, what do the books do, well from My experience Books try to make everything simple and leave getting bogged down in Stats to the Players. They will use the 3 and then adjust to any other significant input.
WEATHER CONDITIONS:
Another factor that must have the Books falling about in their Offices. You would swear by some Posts the Off-Shore books are at the North Pole and havent a clue as to the Weather. Once again as a Book, you want to keep it simple, is the wind about 20 MPH or over or is it raining, other than that forget it, pretend its a lovely Summer's Day. Both will lower the Total, Wind will favour the better running Game, rain will detract from the better running Game, anything else is Bollox posting time.
THE BOOKMAKERS LEAN:
Anybody who knows anything about bookmaking will tell you that you only need an opinion when a Market creates "One Horse Books" Big Markets like NFL Sides and totals should accomodate all books over a period making a view a liability in fact. Any moves indicate an adjustment to the Money as opposed to a particular lean.
CONSENSUS BETTING:
This really is Bonehead material. No matter which way they describe it or put Stats up as an argument they are basically saying, I havent a Clue, I'll make a Bet dependent on what some other Joker does. To top things off some will quote percentages based on 60 -100 bets or say something Dopey like as 60% of the players are on the -150 M/L that must be the play.
BETTING AGAINST JOE PUBLIC:
Probably the biggest nonsense on here at all times, not just NFL. I find it incredible that Posters who put themselves across as clued-up consider themselves seperate from the rest of the betting community. There may have been good reasoning for it before the Internet but if someone has Internet access and opened accounts, one would think there not completely stupid. Because of the more informed Punter nowadays Books cannot price up on the hope that "The Herd" go along with the ruse. Just to finish, I love it when Posters say its Sharp Money when their on it and its Joe Public when their not, as if they know.
LATE MONEY IS THE SHARP MONEY:
I explained this in another thread which I was surprised got no replies considering how some Posters are so adamant this is significant. Generally betting late is a trade off between latest info on the game and shorter prices.
So there you go, no doubt the slide-rule Sods and the Algebra achers will come out in force, not to mention the posters believing in these Myths. Of course the posts will not put any reasoning behind their thinking, just one of being different to all the rest is best. :drink:
HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE:
One the geeks like getting into because with the Stats you can make it anything you want, I even read more than One Capper saying The Steelers had a Negative HFA last year, probably true but are you going to give them no points for the TTs. The other argument is, what do the books do, well from My experience Books try to make everything simple and leave getting bogged down in Stats to the Players. They will use the 3 and then adjust to any other significant input.
WEATHER CONDITIONS:
Another factor that must have the Books falling about in their Offices. You would swear by some Posts the Off-Shore books are at the North Pole and havent a clue as to the Weather. Once again as a Book, you want to keep it simple, is the wind about 20 MPH or over or is it raining, other than that forget it, pretend its a lovely Summer's Day. Both will lower the Total, Wind will favour the better running Game, rain will detract from the better running Game, anything else is Bollox posting time.
THE BOOKMAKERS LEAN:
Anybody who knows anything about bookmaking will tell you that you only need an opinion when a Market creates "One Horse Books" Big Markets like NFL Sides and totals should accomodate all books over a period making a view a liability in fact. Any moves indicate an adjustment to the Money as opposed to a particular lean.
CONSENSUS BETTING:
This really is Bonehead material. No matter which way they describe it or put Stats up as an argument they are basically saying, I havent a Clue, I'll make a Bet dependent on what some other Joker does. To top things off some will quote percentages based on 60 -100 bets or say something Dopey like as 60% of the players are on the -150 M/L that must be the play.
BETTING AGAINST JOE PUBLIC:
Probably the biggest nonsense on here at all times, not just NFL. I find it incredible that Posters who put themselves across as clued-up consider themselves seperate from the rest of the betting community. There may have been good reasoning for it before the Internet but if someone has Internet access and opened accounts, one would think there not completely stupid. Because of the more informed Punter nowadays Books cannot price up on the hope that "The Herd" go along with the ruse. Just to finish, I love it when Posters say its Sharp Money when their on it and its Joe Public when their not, as if they know.
LATE MONEY IS THE SHARP MONEY:
I explained this in another thread which I was surprised got no replies considering how some Posters are so adamant this is significant. Generally betting late is a trade off between latest info on the game and shorter prices.
So there you go, no doubt the slide-rule Sods and the Algebra achers will come out in force, not to mention the posters believing in these Myths. Of course the posts will not put any reasoning behind their thinking, just one of being different to all the rest is best. :drink:
