Will anyone fade Ace-Ace this year in NFL?

Iceman · Aug 13, 2006

Before you answer this with a resounding HELL NO!!! Remember this, everyone was huge on Bucsfan and Choptalk going into this years baseball season and a total collapse happened so it is possibile and with so few games in NFL compared to baseball luck becomes a even bigger factor.

Almost everyone I know when I asked who to follow said these two were automatic and the closet thing to an ATM machine giving away free cash. Don't get me wrong I like all 3 of these guys just trying to put some realitity into the situation and caution people who think that he can't lose because it can happen.

I have used a system that I have developed and used very successfully for years in the NFL. It was my bread and butter sport and one I thought I would NEVER lose in. It was 100% numbers and stats based and it suffered an unbeleivable 44% win rate last year. I was stunned and close to broke. I lost 85% of my bankroll last year in the NFL and still haven't recoverd all of it.

I don't wish any bad luck to Ace because he is such a great all around guy who is very passionate about capping and everyone winning and beating the book.

As for myself I have a feeling him and I will be on the opposite sides alot this year as I am a firm beleiver in line movement and Ace and his followers can move some lines. But there (hopefully) is more than one way to skin a cat and hopefully everyone wins (me included:lolBIG: ).

Just reminding everyone to be careful and bet within your means as nothing in gambling is really guaranteed. Take it from a guy that lost his ass last year. Good Luck :suomi:

Iceman · Aug 13, 2006

Iceman said:
Before you answer this with a resounding HELL NO!!! Remember this, everyone was huge on Bucsfan and Choptalk going into this years baseball season and a total collapse happened so it is possibile and with so few games in NFL compared to baseball luck becomes a even bigger factor.

Almost everyone I know when I asked who to follow said these two were automatic and the closet thing to an ATM machine giving away free cash. Don't get me wrong I like all 3 of these guys just trying to put some realitity into the situation and caution people who think that he can't lose because it can happen.

I have used a system that I have developed and used very successfully for years in the NFL. It was my bread and butter sport and one I thought I would NEVER lose in. It was 100% numbers and stats based and it suffered an unbeleivable 44% win rate last year. I was stunned and close to broke. I lost 85% of my bankroll last year in the NFL and still haven't recoverd all of it.

I don't wish any bad luck to Ace because he is such a great all around guy who is very passionate about capping and everyone winning and beating the book.

As for myself I have a feeling him and I will be on the opposite sides alot this year as I am a firm beleiver in line movement and Ace and his followers can move some lines. But there (hopefully) is more than one way to skin a cat and hopefully everyone wins (me included:lolBIG: ).

Just reminding everyone to be careful and bet within your means as nothing in gambling is really guaranteed. Take it from a guy that lost his ass last year. Good Luck

sorry I ranted so much but my answer (somewhere hidden in there) is I will not fade but if I like a side I will not be influenced either way.

Doug · Aug 13, 2006

I couldn't see blindly fading him. I would be more inclined to blindly follow him. NFL doesn't matter much to me.

gynecologist · Aug 13, 2006

Iceman said:
and with so few games in NFL compared to baseball luck becomes a even bigger factor.

I have never disagreed with a statement more than I did
that one. C'mon more luck needed in NFL???

Iceman · Aug 13, 2006

gynecologist said:
I have never disagreed with a statement more than I did
that one. C'mon more luck needed in NFL???

It's math, think about it. One baseball season is about the equivalent to 10 NFL seasons.

If you bet 5 games a week in NFL that is less than 100 plays for the whole year. A few bad bounces and bam a 55% capper can be a 48% capper.

Hell I can bet 100 baseball games in a week or two. Ask around and most will agree with this.

Challenge someone that knows nothing about a particular sport to a capping contest and they may beat you or I in the first 50 picks or so, but hopefully after 500 plays (10x more) the cream will rise to the drop or better yet in baseball a batter can go 12 for 20 (.600) but if he is a .250 hitter than look at his numbers when they get watered down after 300 at-bats.

It's called standard deviation and the more occurences the less luck in the results.I love the NFL as much as the next guy but not sure how you can strongly disagree with that.

nhoj · Aug 13, 2006

If you faded him tonight

You in the :money8: His bet was the over... But it not over yet so maybe not.

Santo · Aug 13, 2006

Even assuming Ace's past record is not evidence that he's +EV, it makes more sense to follow known +EV picks, than to take a guess on Ace either to follow or fade...

P.S. Ice -- did you get my email?

FatTony · Aug 13, 2006

You know, it's a pretty shitty question to ask.

Puccini · Aug 13, 2006

I'm going to follow him, but at a level that, if he tanks, I won't get hurt too bad.

I also remember the feeling at the beginning of baseball season that, hey, you just can't lose following so-and-so. People were saying, "I'm going to fund my kid's college education" following [fill in the blank].

If you're going to follow, the important thing to remember is "DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE," and play conservatively. Everyone, and I mean everyone, has their down years.

gynecologist · Aug 13, 2006

Iceman said:
It's math, think about it. One baseball season is about the equivalent to 10 NFL seasons.

If you bet 5 games a week in NFL that is less than 100 plays for the whole year. A few bad bounces and bam a 55% capper can be a 48% capper.

Hell I can bet 100 baseball games in a week or two. Ask around and most will agree with this.

Challenge someone that knows nothing about a particular sport to a capping contest and they may beat you or I in the first 50 picks or so, but hopefully after 500 plays (10x more) the cream will rise to the drop or better yet in baseball a batter can go 12 for 20 (.600) but if he is a .250 hitter than look at his numbers when they get watered down after 300 at-bats.

It's called standard deviation and the more occurences the less luck in the results.I love the NFL as much as the next guy but not sure how you can strongly disagree with that.

One game in MLB doesn't mean as much to a team as it does in the
NFL. With the NFL there is more of a sense of urgency. MLB a team
can lose 13 games in a row and still make the playoffs.

TomBrady#1 · Aug 13, 2006

One thing I learned and feel sure of is...BASES IS THE HARDEST. Period.

As far as Ace well, no such thing as a sure thing. Not even close...but be smart and put the % in your favor.

Iceman · Aug 14, 2006

Santo said:
Even assuming Ace's past record is not evidence that he's +EV, it makes more sense to follow known +EV picks, than to take a guess on Ace either to follow or fade...

P.S. Ice -- did you get my email?

Santo- yes i did. haven't had time to really get back at you but very interesting. Hope you don't mind if I get back at you tomorrow, I want to jot a few things down before I e-mail you back. thanks again.

Weekends suck for me, I work like a madman during the weekends in the summer.

Santo · Aug 14, 2006

No worries, just wanted to make sure I didn't screw up the address.

Iceman · Aug 14, 2006

Santo said:
No worries, just wanted to make sure I didn't screw up the address.

no I got it, thanks.

It's on my list of things to do tomorrow. you know I would end up having a few questions:lolBIG:

AngleBroom · Aug 14, 2006

Ace is a sharp bettor. He might not make a million bucks over a season for a player, but I'll guarantee he won't be in the minus. His money management will have you in plus money at seasons end if you play it like he plays it, regardless of record. So the answer is fade if you wanna lose.

WVU · Aug 14, 2006

If enough big betters are following Ace Ace picks then the correct move would be to fade him as you will be getting better lines. I dont follow or fade anyone though

ElIguana · Aug 14, 2006

Ice, sorry you had such a bad year last year. The year of the NFL favorite tore me up, too.

You have a good point that, statistically, A-A should regress toward the mean this year...."should," not necessarily "will" regress toward the mean!

To answer your question, I cap the games myself and come up with my strongest picks, then I look at what others on the Rx have to say about them. If A-A (or another strong capper) is on my pick, it reinforces it. If they are fading me, I will re-examine my pick and possibly not play it.

But I don't blindly follow or fade all of A-A's picks, or any other capper's picks for that matter. I would guess that most posters on the Rx do it like I do.

BOL this season, let those dogs bark!

Dawoofdaddy · Aug 14, 2006

Alot better ways to make a buck than fading ace-ace.

If people are fading him, they already have a hole in their pocket after first few preseaon games.

The guy doesnt bet over his head and he understands that there is more to sportsbetting than simply studying statistics.

Some of these games are fixed and he also knows that when a line looks to fishy and/or the movement is strange to avoid the game or fade the obvious side.

People are boasting about fading Bucsfan, but they more than likely would have went bust since he started the season hot. Most faders would have stopped the bleeding before he fell into the slump.

I cannot blindly follow anyone for too long, but aces first half plays are usually $$$. I dont do alot of 1h betting, but will consider following ace if I agree with the pick and he gives a solid writeup.

I wish him a good season, but the # of people following him is a concern.

:toast:

WVU · Aug 14, 2006

DAWOOFDADDY said:
I wish him a good season, but the # of people following him is a concern.

:toast:

it should be as the number of punters following him this year versus last will probably be 5-10 fold, especially if he gets off to a good start. We may witness an "ace-ace" affect in the lines of major books this year

gynecologist · Aug 14, 2006

El Iguana said:
To answer your question, I cap the games myself and come up with my strongest picks, then I look at what others on the Rx have to say about them. If A-A (or another strong capper) is on my pick, it reinforces it. If they are fading me, I will re-examine my pick and possibly not play it.

But I don't blindly follow or fade all of A-A's picks, or any other capper's picks for that matter. I would guess that most posters on the Rx do it like I do.

BOL this season, let those dogs bark!

I think this is a very smart way to go about things. My father is a
damn good NFL capper and I always call him to ask him who he likes,
and when he likes something I like I tend to add another 1-2 maybe
even 3 units to it. I agree cap your own games and if ACE-ACE has
what you have then hammer away.