Ultimate Fight Night 8/17

FairlySquarely · Aug 15, 2006

Lines are up at Pinny. Favorites are pretty lopsided for the most part. The best value I see so far is Goulet at +319. The guy never gets enough credit, and I feel this is an amazing value. He could win if Josh "the human blanket" Koscheck doesn't smother him for 3 rounds.

I didn't think Riggs would fight at 170 again. Riggs has had trouble making 170 before, so it will be interesting to say the least. He might be a possible fade as von Flue is lanky enough to pull off a submission (which Riggs is vulnerable to). Don't get me wrong though, Riggs could easily ground and pount his way to victory if von Flue doesn't guard well. Note to von Flue: do NOT exchange blows with Riggs.

The Karo/Diego fight seems ilke a nice, fair line. I think Karo has what it takes to give Diego his first loss. If he watched Diego's lackluster performance of last, he'll have a good grip of how to defend against Diego's takedowns and respond with his own aggressiveness.

I'll post any other value that I find as the event gets closer. Any other comments are welcome.

fivestarjake · Aug 15, 2006

although karo/diego is a nice fight karo is getting screwed imo. he was scheduled for championship fight with hughes until injured. came back won a few fights and now has to fight diego? bullshit! if he loses this fight it sends him out of championship fight. he should be fighting winner of hughes/gsp. hes more seasoned than diego. diego isnt no where near ready for hughes or gsp.

FairlySquarely · Aug 15, 2006

i totally agree. i was at the fight that karo was supposed to fight in (riggs replaced him). he definitely deserves a shot, but gsp deserves it more. the way the ufc has done it, it's pretty strategic. both karo and diego are potential goldenboys at 170. whoever wins between them will most likely get a title shot. if the karo/diego fight is close, a rematch will definitely be a moneymaker if one of them claims the belt in the future. unfortunately, as you said, one of them will get knocked off a few rungs in the contender ladder. i think karo is ready for a shot. thursday's fight will tell us for sure.

HansGruber · Aug 16, 2006

Love Karo and hope he crushes Sanchez. I'm with you on the Goulet value as well. Koschek is overrated as hell.

What do you guys think of the UFC 62 lines? Do you give Sobral a shot? He always looks to me like just rolled out of bed, but he just keeps winning. Chuck's got to lose at some point, but his takedown defense is the best around. I love GSP at +130.

FairlySquarely · Aug 16, 2006

i give sobral a pretty good chance. he's willing to slug it out at times, he can take a beating, and i know he wants the belt bad. he's only been ko'd once in his career (got caught by a lucky chuck liddell knee). he has a good record and is well versed in submissions. chuck is a very one dimensional fighter, but has been successful doing so since he makes everyone fight in his dimension. i think babalu will press the action and try to stay in close. mid-range is where liddell is most effective, as he can catch you at great angles with his unorthodox swings.

i also like gsp, but not because i think he'll absolutely win, but because as long as he's an underdog it's a good value.

there are games i play because i have a good feeling they'll win, and there are games i play because it's close to 50/50 with good value. most ufc fights i bet on fall into the second category. otherwise you're just betting with huge vig.

HansGruber · Aug 17, 2006

Along with a small wager on Goulet (+316), I'm going to take a shot on Santiago (+290) vs. Leben. That guy is a joker. All you hear about is how hard he hits and how tough a fighter he is, but when he fights he ends up getting rocked by strikes, stumbling around the ring like a drunk on New Year's Eve, and throwing haymakers that never land. Don't know a lot about Santiago other than the fact that he's a BJJ black belt out of Rio who won his UFC debut with a knee strike, and that he describes his favorite technique as his right hand(!) Leben might be a deserved favorite, but not at -320!

I think these fights are actually a real opportunity for knowledgable gamblers, because most of the public $ is coming from the casual fan that recognizes the dudes from the show.

GL boys. :103631605

UoweDucks · Aug 17, 2006

UFC Fight Night Weighed in and Ready to Go

All 16 competitors on Thursday’s UFC Fight Night card at Red Rock Casino Resort Spa in Las Vegas, Nevada made weight for their fights tomorrow night. The show will air on Spike TV beginning at 8pm and will be followed at 10pm by the season premiere of the fourth season of ‘The Ultimate Fighter’ reality show.
Official Weights
Diego Sanchez (169.5) vs Karo Parisyan (171.5)
Jorge Santiago (185) vs Chris Leben (186)
Yuki Sasaki (185) vs Dean Lister (185)
Pat Healy (170) vs Anthony Torres (170.5)
Jason Von Flue (170) vs Joe Riggs (170)
Forrest Petz (170) vs Sam Morgan (170.5)
Christophe Midoux (224) vs Jake O’Brien (231)
Crafton Wallace (184.5) vs Martin Kampmann (185)
Jonathan Goulet (170) vs Josh Koscheck (171)

WCBias · Aug 17, 2006

Man, I'm thinking of going out to RR today. Bash or UFC....Bash or UFC...Both maybe!

UoweDucks · Aug 17, 2006

WC,
Do you live in Vegas? I thought you were San Diego for some reason.

shipdapaper · Aug 17, 2006

UoweDucks said:
UFC Fight Night Weighed in and Ready to Go

All 16 competitors on Thursday’s UFC Fight Night card at Red Rock Casino Resort Spa in Las Vegas, Nevada made weight for their fights tomorrow night. The show will air on Spike TV beginning at 8pm and will be followed at 10pm by the season premiere of the fourth season of ‘The Ultimate Fighter’ reality show.
Official Weights
Diego Sanchez (169.5) vs Karo Parisyan (171.5)
Jorge Santiago (185) vs Chris Leben (186)
Yuki Sasaki (185) vs Dean Lister (185)
Pat Healy (170) vs Anthony Torres (170.5)
Jason Von Flue (170) vs Joe Riggs (170)
Forrest Petz (170) vs Sam Morgan (170.5)
Christophe Midoux (224) vs Jake O’Brien (231)
Crafton Wallace (184.5) vs Martin Kampmann (185)
Jonathan Goulet (170) vs Josh Koscheck (171)

so karo didnt make weight? was this after they gave him a chance to cut after the first weigh in?

HansGruber · Aug 17, 2006

Check out bettormma.com. You have to register but there are some good write-ups on tonight's card. A few MMA experts have Goulet and Santiago upsetting Koschek and Leben which is giving me enough confidence to add a little more to those wagers. At 3-1, I just need one to hit for a profit.

WCBias · Aug 17, 2006

UoweDucks said:
WC,
Do you live in Vegas? I thought you were San Diego for some reason.

UofO...I live in Las Vegas...I obviously didn't go to the fights because I think they started 30 minutes ago, but I'm going to watch them tonight before meeting up with some Rxers....

Not to late to jump a plane, saturday is the big day anyway, we can represent our state schools in orange and black and yellow, dark yellow, light green, dark green, white, black, silver (did I miss any?)

UoweDucks · Aug 17, 2006

WC Bias said:
UofO...I live in Las Vegas...I obviously didn't go to the fights because I think they started 30 minutes ago, but I'm going to watch them tonight before meeting up with some Rxers....

Not to late to jump a plane, saturday is the big day anyway, we can represent our state schools in orange and black and yellow, dark yellow, light green, dark green, white, black, silver (did I miss any?)

You forgot luminescent yellow with shadow flames.

I wish I could make it but have too much going on this weekend. Represent us "left coasters" well.

FourPunchCombo · Aug 17, 2006

shipdapaper said:
so karo didnt make weight? was this after they gave him a chance to cut after the first weigh in?

Not a title fight and I think the contract allows a pound or two lee way. Both fighters are in shape.

shipdapaper · Aug 17, 2006

they are aloud one pound...title fight or not....1.5 would be over...the only way the fight happens is if deigo says lets fight anyway....that ofcourse is assumming that karo did not make weight on both attempts

fivestarjake · Aug 17, 2006

leben comes back strong. he was severly outclassed with anderson silva. but exclude that fight and leben would be a -400 or -500 fav in this fight. your getting a steal with leben only -300(pinny)

fivestarjake · Aug 17, 2006

after a pretty uneventful 1st rd which i gave the edge to jorge, leben comes out strong in the 2nd and jorge went nite nite.

WCBias · Aug 18, 2006

Time to start giving Sanchez some props...he looked really good against quality competition. Riggsand Koschek (sp) looked inspired too. Was very disappointed in Lister, 185 is clearly too light for him.

I wish the UFC would let go of the tomato can fights. There is a pool of good talent to keep fights at a premium.

fivestarjake · Aug 18, 2006

sanchez did look good against karo. that was a pretty good card last nite. lister looked like he had no strength from cutting weight to 185. your right wc he is better suited for 205. ufc has to build their marketable fighters that they produced and believe me they milk it for all its worth. watch for sanchez to get that title fight probably around super bowl time. but i still think hughes or gsp is still too much for diego to handle at this time.

WCBias · Aug 18, 2006

fivestarjake said:
but i still think hughes or gsp is still too much for diego to handle at this time.

No doubt...too much experience. Hughes will kill him because he's a better wrestler. But Sanchez takes a lot of shit and I've only seen him look bad in one fight. He has been very sharp the last two. I don't know that he should have a title bout yet, but I'd love to see him go against Riggs.