say u start with a bankroll of 5,000. and u are using money management betting 1 percent which would be 50 bucks a game. When u are winning and u get a roll up to 6,000, do u up your bets to 60? or keep it at the same 50? same question when losing. if u drop to 4k, you dropping your bets to 40 bucks?
Never and Never. Only when a goal has been reached and I am entering a new time goal time period.
I dont like these kind of graduated money management systems. Why? because they are all weighted so that streaks can kill you. Lets take an example:
Lets say you go 60% for the first 6 weeks of the season betting 10 games per week (60-40). So you start with a 10K bankroll, and it has now become 15k using your betting strategy going in to week 7.
Now, in week 7, I go 0-10. You lose 5,250.
So - what you have done - is gone 60-50 (54.5%) for the year and you are down money.
It works the opposite way too. If you lose a bunch of weeks in a row, it takes you much longer to get even overall because you are betting much less.
There is no statistical advantage to betting this way and while it may increase your ENTERTAINMENT value by making you last longer in the season - it does nothing good for your financial bottom line.
In conclusion - IT IS MY OPINION - that there is no compelling reason to employ any kind of graduated wagering system - and it is FACT that it has no mathematical EV advantage.
I dont like these kind of graduated money management systems. Why? because they are all weighted so that streaks can kill you. Lets take an example:
Lets say you go 60% for the first 6 weeks of the season betting 10 games per week (60-40). So you start with a 10K bankroll, and it has now become 15k using your betting strategy going in to week 7.
Now, in week 7, I go 0-10. You lose 5,250.
So - what you have done - is gone 60-50 (54.5%) for the year and you are down money.
It works the opposite way too. If you lose a bunch of weeks in a row, it takes you much longer to get even overall because you are betting much less.
There is no statistical advantage to betting this way and while it may increase your ENTERTAINMENT value by making you last longer in the season - it does nothing good for your financial bottom line.
In conclusion - IT IS MY OPINION - that there is no compelling reason to employ any kind of graduated wagering system - and it is FACT that it has no mathematical EV advantage.
vanzack, what you say is true about streaks and bankroll. However, if you have a large enough bankroll in terms of units, by playing nothing but positive expectation plays all season, its to one's advantage to have a moving unit size due to the compounding effect of one positive expectation play after another all season long.
I didn't say unlimited. Large enough to easily cover the variance of large streaks. And the vast majority of the bets I have made this year have been positive expectation bets. I cannot say the same for past seasons but I can for this one. The proof is in the results.
Baseball season YTD I'm currently up +114 units with a constant 50 unit bankroll. I've easily made over 1000 bets this baseball season all ranging between 0.25 units and 1.25 units. Betting flat unit sizes all year long, I'd have a profit margin of 254%. But with an increasing unit size as my bankroll has increased, my current profit margin is 698%.
I don't mention these specifics to brag because that's not my point. My point is that the combination of positive expectation bets and a growing unit size as bankroll increases is a truly powerful thing. It can turn a profit function from a mere linear function to an exponential function in a hurry. Something that the books truly fear.
Baseball season YTD I'm currently up +114 units with a constant 50 unit bankroll. I've easily made over 1000 bets this baseball season all ranging between 0.25 units and 1.25 units. Betting flat unit sizes all year long, I'd have a profit margin of 254%. But with an increasing unit size as my bankroll has increased, my current profit margin is 698%.
I don't mention these specifics to brag because that's not my point. My point is that the combination of positive expectation bets and a growing unit size as bankroll increases is a truly powerful thing. It can turn a profit function from a mere linear function to an exponential function in a hurry. Something that the books truly fear.
Note step # 5
5. Wager between 3% and 6% of your current total bankroll on each wager and no more than 15% of your bankroll in any one day.
7 steps to making $10,000 per year (a nice side income)
1. Set aside $3000 for wagering on sports. This will be your bankroll.
2. Set up 5 accounts with legal online sportsbooks ($600 in each account minus fees to send the money to each sportsbook).
3. Keep detailed records of your accounts and your wagers.
4. When wagering on a game choose the best line for your wager from the 7 sportsbooks.
5. Wager between 3% and 6% of your current total bankroll on each wager and no more than 15% of your bankroll in any one day.
6. Do not make parlay or teaser wagers, just single side and total wagers.
7. Select at least 57% of your selections correctly.
If you have $3000 to set aside, then there is nothing stopping you from doing steps 1 to 6. Step 7 is a more difficult task. A sample of about 200 wagers (with an even mix from all sports) would give you a decent idea on your expected long-term winning percentage. If you are not achieving 57% or more Punt.
5. Wager between 3% and 6% of your current total bankroll on each wager and no more than 15% of your bankroll in any one day.
7 steps to making $10,000 per year (a nice side income)
1. Set aside $3000 for wagering on sports. This will be your bankroll.
2. Set up 5 accounts with legal online sportsbooks ($600 in each account minus fees to send the money to each sportsbook).
3. Keep detailed records of your accounts and your wagers.
4. When wagering on a game choose the best line for your wager from the 7 sportsbooks.
5. Wager between 3% and 6% of your current total bankroll on each wager and no more than 15% of your bankroll in any one day.
6. Do not make parlay or teaser wagers, just single side and total wagers.
7. Select at least 57% of your selections correctly.
If you have $3000 to set aside, then there is nothing stopping you from doing steps 1 to 6. Step 7 is a more difficult task. A sample of about 200 wagers (with an even mix from all sports) would give you a decent idea on your expected long-term winning percentage. If you are not achieving 57% or more Punt.
blah blah blah all this bankroll shit again. It all comes down to picking winners. If you like me go on an 0-12 run it doesn't matter what % of bankroll you bet. You huys miss the point on how 85% of the people gamble on this site. We reload for the weekend hope to hit the 1st few bets get on a roll and at the end of the weekend make a withdraw. Than do it again the next weekend.
0-12 is as bad as it gets.
0-12 is as bad as it gets.
