my opinion of anti-steam system

docslep · Aug 27, 2006

i have tried this system with a small amount of $ as a test. it is contrary to the approach i have used sussessfully with other sports. usually, if a line moves heavily towards a team, i interpret that to mean that the books are "desperately" trying to get the public to even the ledger, and i would take the opposite team.

anyway, my experiment is over. for me, this approach has lost practically on a daily basis, and after yesterday, i will no longer use it. in fact, had i been playing the steam instead of the anti- steam, i'd still be playing.i also notice that nobody is tracking the anti-steam anymore, so to me , that says that it isn't working.this is just a way for me to eliminate a system that's not working for me. anybody have an opinion?

docslep · Aug 27, 2006

i understand that you need like 10,000 plays to really test a system, but since it makes no sense to me anyway, i'm done with it. has anyone actually posted more winners than losers with this system? i haven't seen it yet. good luck. i for one will play the side of the steam from now on. good thing this did not cost me much, only 0.5 unit per bet. i can't wait for football.:nopityA:

FairWarning · Aug 27, 2006

I do believe it is harder to fade the steam in baseball. Far fewer people play it so the people moving the line (espically late) are people that are in the know over a lineup change. Instead of playing the steam on sides, I will play more of the totals so I don't get killed on juice.

Tulsa · Aug 27, 2006

docslep said:
i have tried this system with a small amount of $ as a test. it is contrary to the approach i have used sussessfully with other sports. usually, if a line moves heavily towards a team, i interpret that to mean that the books are "desperately" trying to get the public to even the ledger, and i would take the opposite team.

anyway, my experiment is over. for me, this approach has lost practically on a daily basis, and after yesterday, i will no longer use it. in fact, had i been playing the steam instead of the anti- steam, i'd still be playing.i also notice that nobody is tracking the anti-steam anymore, so to me , that says that it isn't working.this is just a way for me to eliminate a system that's not working for me. anybody have an opinion?

This is exactly how I have read the situation. I also say that all is not lost. One thing this can tell us is that we shouldn't use steam or line-movement as our sole criteria for MLB selections.

Nice, observant post and good luck. tulsa

docslep · Aug 27, 2006

FairWarning said:
I do believe it is harder to fade the steam in baseball. Far fewer people play it so the people moving the line (espically late) are people that are in the know over a lineup change. Instead of playing the steam on sides, I will play more of the totals so I don't get killed on juice.

:toast: i agree.this is the common philosophy with respect to line movement. i don't see how betting with the steep movement is "betting with the books". the way i see it, it is betting the side the books want you to bet.if vegas has some kinda info regarding a game, they would move the line to attract more action on the losing team, right?if i were a book, my moves would be trying to get public $ on the losing side, so a smart better bets AGAINST the line movement. am i wrong here?

PatrickMcIrish · Aug 27, 2006

Doc, why would you be betting "anti-steam" in the first place? You want a system then just play the steam, preferably at a slow moving book or a SLEEPY local, they are especially good for this. If you have a line service then you should be able to tell the difference between the public driving the price versus some of these syndicates, once you see the screen go black then get on the phone and start betting.

Anyway I don't think blindly following steam is going to make you a winner, especially at the inflated price/line, but if you can play it at the price before it got steamed then absolutely!

docslep · Aug 27, 2006

Patrick McIrish said:
Doc, why would you be betting "anti-steam" in the first place? You want a system then just play the steam, preferably at a slow moving book or a SLEEPY local, they are especially good for this. If you have a line service then you should be able to tell the difference between the public driving the price versus some of these syndicates, once you see the screen go black then get on the phone and start betting.

Anyway I don't think blindly following steam is going to make you a winner, especially at the inflated price/line, but if you can play it at the price before it got steamed then absolutely!

true. i tried the anti-steam approach as it was brought up awhile back as a possible system. the basic question is, if you detect some steep moves, and there are no obvious reasons (ie. injuries, pitching changes etc.) can we make $?

PatrickMcIrish · Aug 27, 2006

docslep said:
true. i tried the anti-steam approach as it was brought up awhile back as a possible system. the basic question is, if you detect some steep moves, and there are no obvious reasons (ie. injuries, pitching changes etc.) can we make $?

You talking about going with or against the move? Plus it depends who's betting. But yes I think overall if you can get the pre-move price you will come out ahead. Those late steamers are often information moves, their opinions need to be considered strongly. However, again just to be clear, I do not think taking the new price after the game is steamed is any more profitable than the anti-steam system you were using. Ideally I want to take the steam but at the old price. In this racket the numbers you are betting at is the most important thing of all, if you are laying bad numbers than you can't win long term.

It can be done, betting the moves but at the old prices, I have been shown the door from more than one local that did not stay on top of it, some of them didn't even subsribe to Don Best I don't think. If they did they didn't use it often. All I did was bet the same side as the steam came in on but before he changed his price. You will win a lot more than you lose this way, especially sports like NCAAF, they can get red hot and you will just bury your bookie.

docslep · Aug 27, 2006

here's another issue, pat. isn't the basic idea here to pick the winning side? i mean what's the difference if you play before or after the move? as long as you pick the winner, you win. it's not like a point spread, where you might get a free point or 2 if you can hit a sleepy local. to me, i'm trying to predict the winner based on how the lines move. the winner is the same for everyone when you bet sides in bb. even though we may have different prices, we're all trying to pick the winners, aren't we?

PatrickMcIrish · Aug 27, 2006

docslep said:
here's another issue, pat. isn't the basic idea here to pick the winning side? i mean what's the difference if you play before or after the move? as long as you pick the winner, you win. it's not like a point spread, where you might get a free point or 2 if you can hit a sleepy local. to me, i'm trying to predict the winner based on how the lines move. the winner is the same for everyone when you bet sides in bb. even though we may have different prices, we're all trying to pick the winners, aren't we?

Of course we are trying to pick winners but the price is what tells you if there is any value or not. You can't get over simplistic in this and say either I win the game or not so the price is of little concern, hell the price is the PRIMARY concern. These big syndicates work like clockwork, at a precise second they will have teams of people bet the same game at the exact same time. They do that of course so they can get down as much as they want on the game at the same price, they don't want to pay more. If they pay more than the game might not hold any value. Believe me, they wouldn't go through all this trouble if the price didn't matter.

Over the course of the season you will get destroyed if you are constantly playing games at inflated prices. You're right, it's not like football, hoops and other sports where you are dealing primarily with point spreads, but the dollars you lay on these games is every bit as important. If they are playing at +100 and you are taking the same games at -130 and on up all year you have no chance, it's as simple as that. Anyway I didn't want to come in your thread and disrupt it Doc, I think it's smart as hell for you to be checking into new systems. Hell we all should be doing this. I just wasn't sure what you meant by anti-steam after reading your first post, appreciate your clearing it up for me sir. Good luck today with your plays.

Bookie Buster · Aug 27, 2006

I have been following this as well with doc and I find more losing days then winning and most of the time it is pointing you in the direction of losers.

As of now I will stop as well.

GL to all and on to the next system.

benny0420 · Aug 27, 2006

Fade the public in NFL and CFB and you will have a nice little bankroll at the end of the year.

Benny

FairWarning · Aug 27, 2006

benny0420 said:
Fade the public in NFL and CFB and you will have a nice little bankroll at the end of the year.

Benny

Now thats totally different since you have a week's worth of movement to go on. What docsleep is doing is fading the move. Totals move a lot late because of a late scratch. I want to be on this side with a slow-moving book instead of fading it. The key is finding the book.

winbet · Aug 27, 2006

Its getting late for Me and there's too much to read but the gist is you are trying to produce a system depending on certain movements in the betting.

Firstly, trying to read into market movements will send you to the Nuthouse, theres never no one defining reason. Secondly, while fully understanding the reason you want to have a system ( we all want to make things easier and hope there's short cuts) its amazing how many never take into account the value in the Bookmakers price, which is the factor that dictates to everything. Most solid reasoning in H'capping has nothing to do with how the Market reacts, thats all secondary if you want to get technical. :drink:

docslep · Aug 28, 2006

2 seasons ago, i played a system in cbb that seemed to be like printing $. i looked for late line movement and public betting data. if there was discord , ie, if the line movement was OPPOSITE what would make sense, then i would bet the steam play. it worked great, especially for the real small conferences. last season, the approach wasn't as successful, probably bc the public data i was getting wasn't accurate. but i'm always looking for a system. i general, i'm not smart enough to cap all the games every nite, but i think there's gotta be something vegas knows when a line moves steeply, and i want to figure it out somehow. it seems like the most time efficient way. just too many games and teams in college sports, it could take hours and hours each nite to cap the games, then you lose anyway. there's gotta be and easier and more scientific way, imo.

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