Half Point Value In Nfl

winbet · Aug 27, 2006

We better make our minds up quickly as there are going to be plenty on the 3, Nine in the first Week. From my vast databank ( scribbles on beermats ) it appears the important numbers are becoming more important, and I'm not sure if the Books are realising it, probably due to neglect, as an ex book I know you only start worrying about something when it keeps kicking you in the Nuts.

As I said in an earlier thread, prices on Betfair were fairly standard last Year against the books other than a marked drop in the 3 and 7. Upon review it seems the 3 has been performing 10% better over the last 3 Years, the 7 goes at 7%. In laymans terms that would make the 3 worth 30 Cents and the 7, 50 cents.

So whatever the argument in the past was, the sums say you are getting more value buying nowadays than before. Thats only my thinking and
to be honest, its not often the line is that critical with my selections but I could be wrong, any thoughts. :drink:

whalewager · Aug 27, 2006

yeah, 90% of the people in this place will not know what you just said.

winbet · Aug 27, 2006

You understand whale, your not a Greenhorn. :lolBIG:

Dante · Aug 27, 2006

winbet said:
You understand whale, your not a Greenhorn. :lolBIG:

yep whale is sharp and he understands and all of his understanding posts are one liner posts or less:grandmais

man of few words :smoker2:

whalewager · Aug 27, 2006

if u look at my posts...i have alot of posts that are more than one line...just dont bore me.

winbet · Aug 27, 2006

Dante,
I'm in enough trouble on here at the mo. The Thread was one of my serious ones, the type that hopefully posters say, "he's not an asshole after all"

I must say your posting on here doesnt seem anything like your pictures, I expected a short young good-looking fella with a sense of dress, just shows how wrong we can be. :drink:

winbet · Aug 27, 2006

Only Joking, like all the Mods on here, Top Class. :suomi:

Doug · Aug 27, 2006

winbet said:
We better make our minds up quickly as there are going to be plenty on the 3, Nine in the first Week. From my vast databank ( scribbles on beermats ) it appears the important numbers are becoming more important, and I'm not sure if the Books are realising it, probably due to neglect, as an ex book I know you only start worrying about something when it keeps kicking you in the Nuts.

As I said in an earlier thread, prices on Betfair were fairly standard last Year against the books other than a marked drop in the 3 and 7. Upon review it seems the 3 has been performing 10% better over the last 3 Years, the 7 goes at 7%. In laymans terms that would make the 3 worth 30 Cents and the 7, 50 cents.

So whatever the argument in the past was, the sums say you are getting more value buying nowadays than before. Thats only my thinking and
to be honest, its not often the line is that critical with my selections but I could be wrong, any thoughts. :drink:

3 is clearly worth more than 7 . 7 is nowhere near worth 50 cents, if I understand what you are trying to say.

Dante · Aug 27, 2006

winbet said:
Dante,
I'm in enough trouble on here at the mo. The Thread was one of my serious ones, the type that hopefully posters say, "he's not an asshole after all"

I must say your posting on here doesnt seem anything like your pictures, I expected a short young good-looking fella with a sense of dress, just shows how wrong we can be. :drink:

OUCH!!

Fishhead · Aug 27, 2006

Doug said:
3 is clearly worth more than 7 . 7 is nowhere near worth 50 cents, if I understand what you are trying to say.

Do not take +6.5 or +9.5 on an NFL game if one can buy it up for a mere 10 cents(presuming this is the best number available at the moment and it isn't going higher).

winbet · Aug 27, 2006

Doug,
What I am saying is the 3 normally goes for 15-20 cents, however recent years suggest the Books should be charging 30 cents and 50 cents on the 7. :drink:

Doug · Aug 27, 2006

winbet said:
Doug,
What I am saying is the 3 normally goes for 15-20 cents, however recent years suggest the Books should be charging 30 cents and 50 cents on the 7. :drink:

I disagree. I'm fine with buying off/on 3 for 20 cents, but off/ on 7 is worth much less than 50 cents. Many more games are decided by 3 than 7. Off/ on 7 only costs 10 cents. I think you have a large error on the value of 7.

winbet · Aug 27, 2006

Doug said:
I disagree. I'm fine with buying off/on 3 for 20 cents, but off/ on 7 is worth much less than 50 cents. Many more games are decided by 3 than 7. Off/ on 7 only costs 10 cents. I think you have a large error on the value of 7.

This is getting confusing. I am saying the Stats say the 3 is worth 30 cents and the 7 ,50 cents. I'm not sure where you get on the 7 for 10 Cents but there you go. :drink:

Doug · Aug 27, 2006

Wagerweb I believe charges 10 cents on everything but the 3. I get it free there. ( to $500).

sean1 · Aug 27, 2006

Recently, things have changed. With faves covering 57-58% last year and the big division of power (Not so many 12+ and 6- win teams in years) it is possible that more games landed on 7 than 3 the past couple years. (I suspect mostly last year).

I do not think the 7 is worth 50 cents. I also do think it may be moving up in value and may be worth more than 12-15 cents as in the past.

-Sean

tennis28 · Aug 27, 2006

To look at just one or two years results and make a statement that the 3 and 7 are becoming more important is absurd. Why would you put emphasis on year instead of the other 39 years?

Correlation does not imply causation.

winbet · Aug 27, 2006

sean1 said:
Recently, things have changed. With faves covering 57-58% last year and the big division of power (Not so many 12+ and 6- win teams in years) it is possible that more games landed on 7 than 3 the past couple years. (I suspect mostly last year).

I do not think the 7 is worth 50 cents. I also do think it may be moving up in value and may be worth more than 12-15 cents as in the past.

-Sean

Thats a fair statement Sean, My figures are over the last Three years in which the 3 was steady at -170 the 7 has increased from -300, -340, -350 from a historical -290. All I'm saying is both numbers are more value now than ever before and the Books havent adjusted yet. :drink:

Doug · Aug 27, 2006

I see you're looking at the ML, I'm looking at the cost of buying the half-point.

Doug · Aug 27, 2006

With 7 arguably more important now, should we buy through it, as in buy +6.5 to +7.5, and -7.5 to -6.5 ?

winbet · Aug 27, 2006

Doug said:
With 7 arguably more important now, should we buy through it, as in buy +6.5 to +7.5, and -7.5 to -6.5 ?

I think the answer lies in your betting. If you are a selective bettor like myself then these figures matter not, a 1/2pt in a game will not come into your reasoning, however if your a multi -game player then its more important and as I've said, its appears to be more important nowadays. The first Weeks spreads tend to bear out how much the games are getting closer and with 9 in Week 1 thats why I brought the subject up.

BTW, best of luck Doug, that thread having a go at you was only a joke, sorry if it upset you. :drink: