Would This System work ?

Baseball system: Tell me your thoughts, I thought of it today.


Choose 1,2, or 3 teams to bet for the season. Catch is, you'd only bet their home games. A team like the Yanks or Mets have records close to 40-20 for the season thus far. Most good teams will have records around this general ball park.


Ex: Mets are 43-23 right now. THat would mean you're up +8.5 units with -150 juice.


Ex: Yanks are 39-23 right now. That would mean you're up +4.5 units with -150 juice.


Ex: White Sox are 43-25 right now. That would mean you're up +5.5 units with -150 juice.


These would have been the three teams I'd have picked from the beginning of the season. That would mean I could have been up +18.5 units without doing any work. Which is probably better than many.


Then again, you need to make sure you pick top teams in the beginning of the year. But in reality, thats not all that difficult.


Not sure if the -150 juice is a good average, but it was a guess. Any thoughts on this system ? I just thought of it today, so it might be completely stupid in the eyes of the vet's.

how's the fin. advisors services thingie going?

how'd you score on the licensing tests?

At first glance, your estimate of -150 juice on those three teams is extremely low. Two public teams and the defending World Series champs.

... but how would you have picked the Mets on Opening Day? There was nothing to suggest that the Mets would dethrone ATL.

If you had thought of this in March, you would have ended up picking ATL, STL and BOS

your average is definately too low,,, should be closer to -185 to 195 at home,, which puts your take at a negative

tater

tatehill2000 said:

your average is definately too low,,, should be closer to -185 to 195 at home,, which puts your take at a negative

tater

Click to expand...

I would put the average somewhere closer to -175. This would still most likely put you in the red. Now I wonder what the longest HOME losing streak has been. If it hasn't been too bad, then a martingale type system may be profitable here.

150 way to generous. Remember with teams like KC, TB, and others you might be in the neg. Some of those games have been -200 or more. That would just eat you up in the long run. No true system can garuntee you winning. Not with the ML anyway.

Everything looks easy with hindsight.

Any money won on a System pulled out of a Hat is pure luck. In order for a System to stand any chance you need two things, an angle the Books dont or cannot take into account in their pricing and then back it up with sound Maths. Your system in question relies to much on a good view and the hope that the Books are stupid, good luck anyways, you'll probably clean up. :drink:

Major League Baseball Money Statistics

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class=datacell>76-54</TD><TD class=datacell>0.585</TD><TD class=datacell>2010</TD><TD class=datacell>44-21</TD><TD class=datacell>1975</TD><TD class=datacell>32-33</TD><TD class=datacell>35</TD><TD class=datacell>69-61</TD><TD class=datacell>1003</TD><TD class=datacell>61-64</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>4</TD><TD class=datahl2>OAK </TD><TD class=datacell>76-56</TD><TD class=datacell>0.576</TD><TD class=datacell>1784</TD><TD class=datacell>38-26</TD><TD class=datacell>487</TD><TD class=datacell>38-30</TD><TD class=datacell>1297</TD><TD class=datacell>75-57</TD><TD class=datacell>2287</TD><TD class=datacell>56-72</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>5</TD><TD class=datahl2>FLA </TD><TD class=datacell>65-66</TD><TD class=datacell>0.496</TD><TD class=datacell>943</TD><TD class=datacell>35-30</TD><TD class=datacell>565</TD><TD class=datacell>30-36</TD><TD class=datacell>378</TD><TD class=datacell>73-58</TD><TD class=datacell>1251</TD><TD class=datacell>71-57</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>6</TD><TD class=datahl2>CHW </TD><TD class=datacell>77-54</TD><TD class=datacell>0.588</TD><TD class=datacell>638</TD><TD class=datacell>43-25</TD><TD class=datacell>576</TD><TD class=datacell>34-29</TD><TD class=datacell>62</TD><TD class=datacell>67-64</TD><TD class=datacell>515</TD><TD class=datacell>67-58</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>7</TD><TD class=datahl2>LA </TD><TD class=datacell>70-62</TD><TD class=datacell>0.530</TD><TD class=datacell>322</TD><TD class=datacell>41-26</TD><TD class=datacell>1030</TD><TD class=datacell>29-36</TD><TD class=datacell>-708</TD><TD class=datacell>63-69</TD><TD class=datacell>-393</TD><TD class=datacell>72-54</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>8</TD><TD class=datahl2>CIN </TD><TD class=datacell>67-66</TD><TD class=datacell>0.504</TD><TD class=datacell>198</TD><TD class=datacell>35-33</TD><TD class=datacell>-453</TD><TD class=datacell>32-33</TD><TD class=datacell>651</TD><TD class=datacell>68-65</TD><TD class=datacell>-205</TD><TD class=datacell>66-58</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>9</TD><TD class=datahl2>KC </TD><TD class=datacell>48-85</TD><TD class=datacell>0.361</TD><TD class=datacell>103</TD><TD class=datacell>29-37</TD><TD class=datacell>535</TD><TD class=datacell>19-48</TD><TD class=datacell>-432</TD><TD class=datacell>69-64</TD><TD class=datacell>162</TD><TD class=datacell>64-64</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>10</TD><TD class=datahl2>ARI </TD><TD class=datacell>64-68</TD><TD class=datacell>0.485</TD><TD class=datacell>40</TD><TD class=datacell>32-34</TD><TD class=datacell>-504</TD><TD class=datacell>32-34</TD><TD class=datacell>544</TD><TD class=datacell>70-62</TD><TD class=datacell>410</TD><TD class=datacell>69-58</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>11</TD><TD class=datahl2>NYY </TD><TD class=datacell>77-52</TD><TD class=datacell>0.597</TD><TD class=datacell>19</TD><TD class=datacell>39-23</TD><TD class=datacell>-344</TD><TD class=datacell>38-29</TD><TD class=datacell>363</TD><TD class=datacell>63-66</TD><TD class=datacell>410</TD><TD class=datacell>65-61</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>12</TD><TD class=datahl2>TEX </TD><TD class=datacell>68-65</TD><TD class=datacell>0.511</TD><TD class=datacell>-21</TD><TD class=datacell>33-33</TD><TD class=datacell>-846</TD><TD class=datacell>35-32</TD><TD class=datacell>825</TD><TD class=datacell>70-63</TD><TD class=datacell>318</TD><TD class=datacell>61-67</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>13</TD><TD class=datahl2>SD </TD><TD class=datacell>67-65</TD><TD class=datacell>0.508</TD><TD class=datacell>-381</TD><TD class=datacell>33-36</TD><TD class=datacell>-1205</TD><TD class=datacell>34-29</TD><TD class=datacell>824</TD><TD class=datacell>67-65</TD><TD class=datacell>-339</TD><TD class=datacell>61-63</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>14</TD><TD class=datahl2>LAA </TD><TD class=datacell>69-64</TD><TD class=datacell>0.519</TD><TD class=datacell>-450</TD><TD class=datacell>34-31</TD><TD class=datacell>-697</TD><TD class=datacell>35-33</TD><TD class=datacell>247</TD><TD class=datacell>63-70</TD><TD class=datacell>-1003</TD><TD class=datacell>69-57</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>15</TD><TD class=datahl2>BOS </TD><TD class=datacell>71-61</TD><TD class=datacell>0.538</TD><TD class=datacell>-456</TD><TD class=datacell>39-24</TD><TD class=datacell>676</TD><TD class=datacell>32-37</TD><TD class=datacell>-1132</TD><TD class=datacell>58-74</TD><TD class=datacell>-1971</TD><TD class=datacell>67-59</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>16</TD><TD class=datahl2>SEA </TD><TD class=datacell>63-69</TD><TD class=datacell>0.477</TD><TD class=datacell>-466</TD><TD class=datacell>38-30</TD><TD class=datacell>435</TD><TD class=datacell>25-39</TD><TD class=datacell>-901</TD><TD class=datacell>74-58</TD><TD class=datacell>703</TD><TD class=datacell>63-64</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>17</TD><TD class=datahl2>TOR </TD><TD class=datacell>69-63</TD><TD class=datacell>0.523</TD><TD class=datacell>-471</TD><TD class=datacell>41-27</TD><TD class=datacell>707</TD><TD class=datacell>28-36</TD><TD class=datacell>-1178</TD><TD class=datacell>62-70</TD><TD class=datacell>-1350</TD><TD class=datacell>64-60</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>18</TD><TD class=datahl2>SF </TD><TD class=datacell>65-67</TD><TD class=datacell>0.492</TD><TD class=datacell>-509</TD><TD class=datacell>38-31</TD><TD class=datacell>164</TD><TD class=datacell>27-36</TD><TD class=datacell>-673</TD><TD class=datacell>61-71</TD><TD class=datacell>-944</TD><TD class=datacell>67-61</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>19</TD><TD class=datahl2>BAL </TD><TD class=datacell>59-72</TD><TD class=datacell>0.450</TD><TD class=datacell>-524</TD><TD class=datacell>36-34</TD><TD class=datacell>163</TD><TD class=datacell>23-38</TD><TD class=datacell>-687</TD><TD class=datacell>62-69</TD><TD class=datacell>-1633</TD><TD class=datacell>66-58</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>20</TD><TD class=datahl2>COL </TD><TD class=datacell>61-70</TD><TD class=datacell>0.466</TD><TD class=datacell>-706</TD><TD class=datacell>34-31</TD><TD class=datacell>-197</TD><TD class=datacell>27-39</TD><TD class=datacell>-509</TD><TD class=datacell>72-59</TD><TD class=datacell>546</TD><TD class=datacell>50-71</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>21</TD><TD class=datahl2>STL </TD><TD class=datacell>69-61</TD><TD class=datacell>0.531</TD><TD class=datacell>-926</TD><TD class=datacell>38-25</TD><TD class=datacell>-65</TD><TD class=datacell>31-36</TD><TD class=datacell>-861</TD><TD class=datacell>56-74</TD><TD class=datacell>-1765</TD><TD class=datacell>64-59</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>22</TD><TD class=datahl2>PHI </TD><TD class=datacell>66-65</TD><TD class=datacell>0.504</TD><TD class=datacell>-958</TD><TD class=datacell>33-35</TD><TD class=datacell>-1283</TD><TD class=datacell>33-30</TD><TD class=datacell>325</TD><TD class=datacell>63-68</TD><TD class=datacell>-771</TD><TD class=datacell>70-59</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>23</TD><TD class=datahl2>MIL </TD><TD class=datacell>62-70</TD><TD class=datacell>0.470</TD><TD class=datacell>-1022</TD><TD class=datacell>39-26</TD><TD class=datacell>703</TD><TD class=datacell>23-44</TD><TD class=datacell>-1725</TD><TD class=datacell>62-70</TD><TD class=datacell>-1288</TD><TD class=datacell>68-58</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>24</TD><TD class=datahl2>TB </TD><TD class=datacell>52-80</TD><TD class=datacell>0.394</TD><TD class=datacell>-1182</TD><TD class=datacell>34-31</TD><TD class=datacell>961</TD><TD class=datacell>18-49</TD><TD class=datacell>-2143</TD><TD class=datacell>63-69</TD><TD class=datacell>-1709</TD><TD class=datacell>59-68</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>25</TD><TD class=datahl2>WAS </TD><TD class=datacell>55-76</TD><TD class=datacell>0.420</TD><TD class=datacell>-1237</TD><TD class=datacell>30-31</TD><TD class=datacell>-268</TD><TD class=datacell>25-45</TD><TD class=datacell>-969</TD><TD class=datacell>64-67</TD><TD class=datacell>-1555</TD><TD class=datacell>70-58</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>26</TD><TD class=datahl2>CLE </TD><TD class=datacell>62-69</TD><TD class=datacell>0.473</TD><TD class=datacell>-1599</TD><TD class=datacell>36-31</TD><TD class=datacell>-261</TD><TD class=datacell>26-38</TD><TD class=datacell>-1338</TD><TD class=datacell>66-65</TD><TD class=datacell>-374</TD><TD class=datacell>70-55</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>27</TD><TD class=datahl2>ATL </TD><TD class=datacell>62-68</TD><TD class=datacell>0.477</TD><TD class=datacell>-1731</TD><TD class=datacell>29-34</TD><TD class=datacell>-1601</TD><TD class=datacell>33-34</TD><TD class=datacell>-130</TD><TD class=datacell>63-67</TD><TD class=datacell>-265</TD><TD class=datacell>73-54</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>28</TD><TD class=datahl2>HOU </TD><TD class=datacell>64-68</TD><TD class=datacell>0.485</TD><TD class=datacell>-1778</TD><TD class=datacell>35-31</TD><TD class=datacell>-1052</TD><TD class=datacell>29-37</TD><TD class=datacell>-726</TD><TD class=datacell>58-74</TD><TD class=datacell>-2018</TD><TD class=datacell>60-65</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>29</TD><TD class=datahl2>CHC </TD><TD class=datacell>54-78</TD><TD class=datacell>0.409</TD><TD class=datacell>-1882</TD><TD class=datacell>27-36</TD><TD class=datacell>-1303</TD><TD class=datacell>27-42</TD><TD class=datacell>-579</TD><TD class=datacell>63-69</TD><TD class=datacell>-1917</TD><TD class=datacell>70-58</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>30</TD><TD class=datahl2>PIT </TD><TD class=datacell>52-81</TD><TD class=datacell>0.391</TD><TD class=datacell>-1914</TD><TD class=datacell>35-33</TD><TD class=datacell>440</TD><TD class=datacell>17-48</TD><TD class=datacell>-2354</TD><TD class=datacell>73-60</TD><TD class=datacell>174</TD><TD class=datacell>63-65</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-------------------------------------------------end left hand column---------------------------------><!-- start right col -

djking said:

how's the fin. advisors services thingie going?

how'd you score on the licensing tests?

Click to expand...

73 on series 6, 80 on series 63. Goin' pretty well right now, thanks !

In honest truth, these were my 3 top teams going into the season in March. Mets are my favorite team so i follow 'em a little bit closer than the rest. But I'm not a huge baseball better, but I think i'm gonna look into a system somewhat like this. I know there's a good system that can be used here with a little tweaking. ANd I'm def. going to try and find it.


And yes, hindsight is the best. Obviously, next year if i was to try, i might not pick the best 3 teams.

Another point is when you do get an edge it will tend to work well early in any Sports season until the Books adjust ( We say that but really what happens is the Major Stats start incorporating the edge) If the System starts taking a downturn or the average number of qualifiers starts to rise, off load and follow the buffalo to Greener Pastures. :drink:

cincy_ said:

... but how would you have picked the Mets on Opening Day? There was nothing to suggest that the Mets would dethrone ATL.

If you had thought of this in March, you would have ended up picking ATL, STL and BOS

Click to expand...

I don'[t know about all that man...alot was there to suggest ATL wouldn't have much of a shot of winning this thing vs. the Mets. I remember everyone sayin teh Mets were the team to beat, although people were hesitant soley because of "The Streak."