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Record 3-1, +$513

Philadelphia/Washington under 9.5, $210 to win $200
NY Mets/Colorado over 10.5, $212 to win $200


Reasoning:

1) I like Cole Hamels to bounce back strong from a horrible start last time out and Hamels has a 3.38 ERA during night games, while his ERA is over 8 in day games. Big park in DC and a breeze blowing in from left and maybe straight in by game-time and possibly some sloppy weather. Ramon Ortiz has been horrible his last 3 starts, so it is about time for a start that will bring him more towards his mean.

2) Tonight, we again have a slight breeze blowing out at Coors and yes, Coors has been an Under park all year, but that trend is reversing itself the last month and I cannot help but like this Mets lineup to keep scoring runs in this series. Dave Williams and Josh Fogg are struggling and Coors is no place to get back on track, usually.

Do Not coat-tail these plays. Just watch for a few months. Please.
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Marksman
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Nov 6, 2005
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I am on the other side of the Phi/Wsh game, but best of luck to you Ernie
 

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Let me be the first to give you your props, man.

Great job. But the main thing is, I like your reasoning.

For quite a bit of this season I tracked how many runs a team scored, and allowed, in a series. Then I tracked the next series. Many, many times it went the other way. Bats don't stay cold. Neither do pitchers. And vice-versa. Things do regress to the mean.

Of course, things like injuries have to be taken into consideration. Like when Lee went down for the Cubs. They didn't "regress" to the mean (scoring more runs) because of that very important injury.

But you'd be amazed at how often a lineup, or pitching staff, will do the exact opposite of what they just did in their last series! And most people will be betting that they continue to do the same thing. So you often get good value.

Continued success. And keep the write-ups (however short) coming.
 

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