I say yes it is (barely).
Is this right:
10% hit on the 3
90% losers, averaging loser pay 7.5 cents juice times 90 loses= -$675
10% winners, winners pay $100 times 10 =$1,000
net profit =$325
does this number hit 10%, seems like I heard this before.
I have numerous oppurtunities with this type play with my locals.
Is this right:
10% hit on the 3
90% losers, averaging loser pay 7.5 cents juice times 90 loses= -$675
10% winners, winners pay $100 times 10 =$1,000
net profit =$325
does this number hit 10%, seems like I heard this before.
I have numerous oppurtunities with this type play with my locals.
beetman said:
I would NEVER pay 20 cents to hit a middle.
That being said, these are plays that I make when trying to rollover bonuses. I also do this when I have a +3 play that I like, so I play -2.5 the other way and you're not paying much vig on it anyways.
If you have a bonus to rollover, go for it.
If you want action on a game for minimal risk, go for it.
Otherwise, pick winners.
What you would personally do is irrelevant to whether the play has long term positive expectation. Lots of people have strict rules about never laying more than -300 or -500 or something like that, but there are certainly profitable plays at those lines and even greater. I laid -10000 a few years ago that the Super Bowl wouldn't go into double OT.
I would gladly bet -2.5 -110 and +3 -110 simultaneously on any regular season NFL game lined at 2.5 or 3, but sadly I don't get as many of those opportunities as I'd like.
I would gladly bet -2.5 -110 and +3 -110 simultaneously on any regular season NFL game lined at 2.5 or 3, but sadly I don't get as many of those opportunities as I'd like.
Iceman,
Your incessant Questions are getting more technical by the Day
You dont have to read too many of Beetroots posts to know the Man knows what he's talking about, so instead of wasting 10 minutes of My life, I will go along with him. I have said in other Threads that in recent Years the 3 is more lightly to come up as games get progressively tighter, having said that, experience tells me that relying on such a volitile number year to year, a hard luck story is in the making. I suggest you play those numbers only when you think its probable rather than the Books view. Best of luck in the NFL, somehow I feel were going to need it. :drink:
Your incessant Questions are getting more technical by the Day
You dont have to read too many of Beetroots posts to know the Man knows what he's talking about, so instead of wasting 10 minutes of My life, I will go along with him. I have said in other Threads that in recent Years the 3 is more lightly to come up as games get progressively tighter, having said that, experience tells me that relying on such a volitile number year to year, a hard luck story is in the making. I suggest you play those numbers only when you think its probable rather than the Books view. Best of luck in the NFL, somehow I feel were going to need it. :drink:
winbet said:Iceman,
Your incessant Questions are getting more technical by the Day
You dont have to read too many of Beetroots posts to know the Man knows what he's talking about, so instead of wasting 10 minutes of My life, I will go along with him. I have said in other Threads that in recent Years the 3 is more lightly to come up as games get progressively tighter, having said that, experience tells me that relying on such a volitile number year to year, a hard luck story is in the making. I suggest you play those numbers only when you think its probable rather than the Books view. Best of luck in the NFL, somehow I feel were going to need it. :drink:
I actually have slowed down(asking questions) considerably the past month. I have a reputaion to withhold so I think I may turn it up a notch in the next few weeks
uppy:Games lined 2.5, 3, 3.5 have landed on 3 9.85% of the time since the 2 pt conversion.
You can quite easily make an excel spreadsheet that includes the push % for each # and lets you put in the vigs to decide if the item is profitable.
In this case:
First of all, in this case, the more optimal play is -2.5 -105 and +3.5 -130
10% land on 3.
Thus if you play 100 games,
45 -2.5 wins, 45 +3.5 wins (Probably really 43/47 as the line was 2.75 but whatever...) 10 both win.
Bet $105 to win $100 and $130 to win $100
45 lose $30
45 lose $5
10 win $200.
=$1350 +$255 in losses = $2000 in wins.
THus over 100 wagers of this type with $100 on each side, you win $395.
-110 and -110 is actually profitable...
-Sean
You can quite easily make an excel spreadsheet that includes the push % for each # and lets you put in the vigs to decide if the item is profitable.
In this case:
First of all, in this case, the more optimal play is -2.5 -105 and +3.5 -130
10% land on 3.
Thus if you play 100 games,
45 -2.5 wins, 45 +3.5 wins (Probably really 43/47 as the line was 2.75 but whatever...) 10 both win.
Bet $105 to win $100 and $130 to win $100
45 lose $30
45 lose $5
10 win $200.
=$1350 +$255 in losses = $2000 in wins.
THus over 100 wagers of this type with $100 on each side, you win $395.
-110 and -110 is actually profitable...
-Sean
The 11.5% I quoted is from a db of NFL game I have (about 6 years worth). This number is for games with a line of 3 or -3 only. If you throw in 2.5 and 3.5 (as Sean did above), the percentage will go down (since those game are less likely to finish at 3). I think 11.5 is a pretty good number, but I don't have an extremely large db to analyze.
