Does anyone ever try to middle or side a baseball total and what pct games land on 9?

Iceman · Sep 3, 2006

The reason I ask is I had something happen today I haven't paid much attention to. I bet under 9.5 on ST.Louis (-115) last nite and game got drilled and bet back over 9 (+107), bascially cost me 4 dollars for every hundred to try and hit a 9. I win a side if I hit the 9 1 in 25 times, correct. Well guess what game landed 9.

Does anyone do this in baseball and if so it obvioulsy works better with odd numbers. I bet Detroit under 9 earleir today at -115 and now can get over 8.5 -103 , wondering what I need to make this a profitable bet in the long run.

Do I have the math right on this and does anyone do this alot

sean1 · Sep 3, 2006

You need a point and a half to middle the nine.

If you are serious about middles, subscribe to sharpsportsbetting and download the NFL and CFB charts StevieY provides.

If you are not willing to subscribe, at -110, 1 point is enough to middle 3, 7, 10, 14 in NFL, 37 and 41 on NFL totals, 3, 7. 10, 17, 24, 31 in college.

1.5 points is prob enough at most numbers. 2 for college totals.

You should really buy the chart and given the land on percentages you can figure out what is profitable at different vigs.

sean1 · Sep 3, 2006

And I answered about the wrong sport!!!

Anyways, in baseball, yes your bet is profitable.

Similar charts exist for baseball, but I hate baseball and don't have the patience to play it well... My best bet for baseball would be to give Cutter my money and pay him a percentage..

-Sean

Iceman · Sep 3, 2006

I was hoping you would chime in Sean. Do you know what the pct of baseball games that land on 9 that were lined between 8.5 and 9.5.

Either way Sunday nite baseballl middling and scalping is a goldmine(IMO)

Iceman · Sep 3, 2006

actually just found it in Micheal Murray's baseball betting book.

11% of all games line at 9 hit on 9.

onemwtheone · Sep 3, 2006

For what it's worth, I have it a little less (about 10.2%). Adding in games at 9.5 and 8.5 doesn't change the percentage very much (about 0.1%)

Iceman · Sep 3, 2006

onemwtheone said:
For what it's worth, I have it a little less (about 10.2%). Adding in games at 9.5 and 8.5 doesn't change the percentage very much (about 0.1%)

Are you sure? I would have to beleieve that it is 15% (minimum) if game is lined 8.5, 9, or 9.5 that hits 9.

onemwtheone · Sep 3, 2006

Iceman said:
Are you sure? I would have to beleieve that it is 15% (minimum) if game is lined 8.5, 9, or 9.5 that hits 9.

Why would you expect it to go up? The games that are most likely to end at 9 runs are the ones with o/u at precisely 9.0. As you start moving off this number, you'd expect the likelyhood of a total of nine runs to go down. A game with a final o/u of 9.0/-110/-110 is more likely to end at 9 then one with 9.0/-120/+100, correct?

simpleton · Sep 3, 2006

Here is what I came up with:

AL ONLY 1993-2005

O/U total games Runs = 9 %
8 1/2 1441 125 8.7
9 2249 220 9.7
9 1/2 2847 286 10.0

Total 6537 631 9.6%

This is AL only....if anybody has a burning desire to see the NL let me know....but I would suspect the results will look very similar.

quantumleap · Sep 3, 2006

sean1 said:
You need a point and a half to middle the nine.

If you are serious about middles, subscribe to sharpsportsbetting and download the NFL and CFB charts StevieY provides.

If you are not willing to subscribe, at -110, 1 point is enough to middle 3, 7, 10, 14 in NFL, 37 and 41 on NFL totals, 3, 7. 10, 17, 24, 31 in college.

1.5 points is prob enough at most numbers. 2 for college totals.

You should really buy the chart and given the land on percentages you can figure out what is profitable at different vigs.

ice:

I mentioned Wong's book "Sharp Sports Betting" in your other thread but didn't get a response so I don't know if you took it to heart. Wong runs the place sean1 mentions and has the answer to this and similar questions.

sean1 · Sep 3, 2006

I don't have a baseball chart. I hate baseball.... Grind grind grind. More power to people who love it, but I never excel at things I don't like.

I will take clear middles though.

You have to figure a baseball games is gonna land between 1 and 20 95% of the time.

If you figure it lands on the line twice as often as 1 or 20, you can estimate about 10%. That is good enough for me when middles are often like -105 -110... since even money would be somewhere around -120 or -130.

-Sean

Iceman · Sep 3, 2006

quantumleap said:
ice:

I mentioned Wong's book "Sharp Sports Betting" in your other thread but didn't get a response so I don't know if you took it to heart. Wong runs the place sean1 mentions and has the answer to this and similar questions.

sorry forgot to answer. I have had the book for years. Reread a few chapters the last few nites. It helped answered some VERY important question for NFL, thanks!!!

quantumleap · Sep 3, 2006

Iceman said:
sorry forgot to answer. I have had the book for years. Reread a few chapters the last few nites. It helped answered some VERY important question for NFL, thanks!!!

How is your middling and scalping doing? I would think it to be a grind but I've found a few sure bets that pay 15+ percent.

randyrohm · Sep 3, 2006

C'mon Ice, if you don't know the value of 9 in bases then you shouldn't try to side it. 7,9 and 11 have been moneymakers for me when I put the time in to make them. GL2U...and I mean it.

Does anyone ever try to middle or side a baseball total and what pct games land on 9?

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